I moved to Michigan in 2022 to play online for a living. My first year as a pro was successful (see graph mostly 30/50 NL with some 100NL). Total profit after rakeback/rewards plus some minor MTT scores was almost $38K. Unfortunately living expenses, combined with lower win rate, tougher games, and admittedly probably not playing as well as 2022, have been killing my bankroll ... so I have been doing gig work and playing on the side while looking for a full time job.
The main reason for moving to Michigan was because of all the recreational players on PokerStars. There are still a lot of recreational players, but since the merge things are definitely more difficult. The ratio of regulars to recreational players is worse than before. Things seem to have gotten a little better in 2024 in that regard, but still not as good as when PokerStars MI/NJ were separate. I'm a very strong proponent of the theory ring fencing is healthier for cash games. Regs have more opportunity to win, recs are more likely to have a WR due to winning/breaking even against other recs, or just lose more slowly due to less regs to contend with. Perhaps this effect will be lessened when other new states come on (hopefully) or remain about the same (next best case scenario ...).
One thing I've always known is that game selection is really important - because it becomes much easier to win. As time goes on, and the games get even harder, I believe the most important skill is the ability to beat other regulars.
More people are becoming skilled, and if you want to succeed in the long run - I believe
you need to be able to beat standard regs pretty soundly. You can't be floundering and not knowing what to do in common spots that regs are going to put you in - especially the ones who are really aggressive and 3bet at or above GTO frequencies. One other thing I've learned (the hard way) is online poker should not be your sole source of income unless you are able to reliably beat 100NL+ , probably 200NL over a big sample ... and have several months of expenses. I am certain that I can soundly beat 100NL on PokerStars MI/NJ since there are still lots of recs ... but due to living expenses ... I haven't had the bankroll necessary (considering I'm also living out of the roll) to put in any serious volume at these limits. 30NL / 50NL are not going to cut it. 50z, possibly - but that's not available yet on Stars US. Game selection is likely become very difficult as players are getting better at an increasingly fast pace - so better to just be able to beat practically anyone.
Something I learned a long time ago (when I first started poker) was bankroll management. Common wisdom was 20 buy ins for whatever limit or 100 if you play for a living. I have followed these since I started. I think these are ok starting guidelines for a new player (with the caveat a new player should not even attempt to play for a living). That being said, I think the 20 buy in rule is horrible if you have a job and your goal is to move up in stakes aggressively.
A better plan is 10 buy ins, and drop down to the last stake if you go under 8 buy ins. Since you are dropping in stakes when things go bad, your risk of ruin is reduced a lot if you're actually a winning player, but you're not languishing at 30NL / 50NL (or whatever stakes) like me. If you are following these rules, and you go broke, that means you ended up having to move down to 2NL and can't beat 2NL and you're probably not a winning player after all - or are on some kind of massive tilt bender (you won't be able to win unless you get rid of that). There does come a point in time where you may have to go back to a more conservative BRM rule and study etc. or just accept you can't go higher. That would be if you reach a stake you just can't beat - and keep having to move down.
My new plan is to get a good job, try to get a side business going, and devote my other free time to poker using my new more aggressive BRM rules. I'll still consider myself a pro as long as I'm bringing in 1K a month - but as for going full time again - I'd need to have a side business going solidly - and/or a massive bankroll built up. I may leave Michigan and just grind ACR - depending on job opportunities.
Last edited by ten25; 01-15-2024 at 05:44 PM.