Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
The question of whether 250,000 hands is a large enough sample size for reasonably accurate statistics can't be answered. That's because no information is given about the size of the standard deviation. Coaches, or whoever, who are posting graphs of how well they have done, should also post the appropriate estimate for their standard deviation for their play.
The best formula that I know of for estimating the standard deviation, known as "the maximum likelihood estimator for the standard deviation" can be found in the chapter titled "Computing Your Standard Deviation," starting on page 75, in my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics - Expanded Edition.
When looking at a sample of 250,000 hands, I would want it to be the last 250,000 hands that this person played. The reason for this is that over time games can change or something that was once quite effective may not be as successful as it once was.
In addition, you may also want to look at the chapter "Win Rate Accuracy" starting on page 84 in my above mentioned book.
Mason
You can check your standart deviation from Pokertracker.
The main reason I opened this topic was to point out how close people's winrates are to each other in high rake situations. Someone like me, who has spent a long time examining databases with high hand count, knows how different the situation is for Pokerstars and GGPoker. In pokerstars regs can hit for 8-10bb winrates in a very big sample. But i never see any reg in GGPoker have 5bb winrate in a very long run.
In 1mil hands -2/+2 winrate can happen. In 2 mil -1,5/+1,5 can happen and that kinda differences are very big when you have 5- bb winrate. But those difference is not that high in Pokerstars because good players can have better winrate.
If a player post 500k sample 1bb/100 graph from GGPoker our community see him as normal player.
If a player post 500k sample 4bb/100 graph from GGPoker our community see him as a crusher.