Quote:
Originally Posted by GetCreative
I hope this simple summary can help you guys understand "variance" a bit better.
3 most important variables
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- Sample size = # hands (in CG at least) - bigger sample = higher degree of confidence, all else the same;
- WR (bb/100) = speaks for itself - higher your WR, the greater confidence you can have over what your WR over that sample is, all else the same. This is perhaps one of the most important variable because it affects your experience of 'variance' disproportionately to the increase in WR - every incremental increase by x amount in WR will decrease the effect or experience of variance more than the last incremental increase of x amount.
- "std dev bb/100" (you can find it under this label in HM3 + PT4) = Measures how volatile your playstyle is; function of playstyle. More volatile you are - the bigger pots you play on average; more frequent getting all in etc., the higher your std dev bb/100, the bigger the effect of variance (magnitude of swings, duration of swings - within short sessions as well as in the long run)
Winrate not effect variance. Only sample size and std dev is important when you describe variance. Winrate only define which zone you will hit the variance.
When std dev and sample size is the same 10bb winner and 2bb winner will experience same variance. The only different part 2bb winner spend more time on loosing side.