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Tom Dwan - the missing man Tom Dwan - the missing man

03-27-2024 , 11:11 PM
solid
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-28-2024 , 01:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by editundo
If your edge is small, like 5% ROI, you can easily go on a 100 buyin downswing. This is true even when field size is small and variance is much lower. Like 9 man STTs, a 53 BI downswing is not that big of a deal. You might even do that in a single day if you are mass tabling.
5% roi? you can go on like 10k buyin downswings
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-28-2024 , 01:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoViN.tArGeT
5% roi? you can go on like 10k buyin downswings
I don't think so. I was talking about small field MTTs like this. EV is 5k buyins if you play 100k tourneys (black line). 10k buyin downswing would be like DOUBLE the distance from the top green line to the bottom red line.

Edit: sorry I gave a totally wrong explanation then edited it. I think it's pretty clear though 10k buyins is not a realistic swing.

https://www.primedope.com/tournament...ce-calculator/



Last edited by editundo; 03-28-2024 at 01:57 AM.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-28-2024 , 02:15 AM
That field size is pretty small though. With bigger fields you are right I suppose.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-28-2024 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23
if Dwan owed peter 3 mil id say Peter should want 700k- half of the 1.4 difference.
So you basically would treat it exactly as if Peter owed 1.6 mil to Tom?
Horses don't owe their backers the make up when they lose.


Quote:
I've never staked or been staked. I've also never lent or borrowed money to play poker or for someone to play poker and I've been playing a long time. I get that in the poker world I'm in the minority to have never done any of those things. I also turned down someone buying me into the 10k plo event a few years ago where he would have given me 30 percent of the winnings. I didn't even think I was +ev in the field at all, and while it would have been a good deal for me (nice free roll obviously) it would have been a bad deal for him and I'd feel like **** for torching his 10k even though it doesn't mean much to him. Now if for example the wynn had said "hey we're not gonna hit some guarantee for here's a 10k entry for free but we get 70 percent if you cash" i would have snap taken it.

I've also had people offer to put me in big games I know I'm a dog in and I would never take it.
Sick brag. Poinless and irrelevant, but sick.


Quote:
Would I played backed if someone owed me 250k ? No i'd want my 250 k first. But Jetten did play backed then torched 1.6 million of Dwan's money. So not sure what your point is.
- Why would you need your 250k first?
- I'm now pretty sure you get my point since you carefully ignored the 3 or 4 questions I asked that where before the ones you answered . If I'm wrong answer those other questions and I'll clarify what my point is


Quote:
You keep mentioning that technically Dwan owes him 250k
Technically, morally and moreover logically


Quote:
Most people on here say you're probably right. So this isn't some gotcha amazing point you think you're making. Where everyone disagrees with you is almost all of us think it's extremely scummy to do that to your friend.
Nice try.
I'm not the first one you tried to explain to you:
- How staking deals work
- Variance
- What a freeroll is
I've seen at least 3 others trying to explain those to you, and you insulting 1 of them.
All those things are not a matter of feelings or opinions, but facts.

Quote:
you are clearly a person with no morals or ethics who would happily take advantage of your friends. You would have snap taken my 10k plo deal if a friend offered it knowing fully well he was getting screwed bc it benefited you. Sadly there are plenty like you in the poker world
Cause I'd refuse to get freerolled?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-28-2024 , 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mozborgata
I am badly in need of a TLDR. What exactly happened?
1) Jetten said publicly that Tom owed him ~250k. Haralabob jumped in and said Dwan owed him 350k.
2) Tom did the most confusing interviews ever saying:
- it's not clear what he owes Haralabob.
- That Jetten is in 1.6 million make up. So he should not pay him
- Ike fronted the buy ins for Peter. (Not that he had the other half of Jetten's deal)
- He paid 30k to Peter (Peter confirmed).
- That the money Peter asked was from a staking deal cash out.
3) Peter said the debt was from pieces Tom bought and didn't give him the money. He also said he has received an other 100k from Tom since
4) Doug goes on a stream and says Tom owe 30 mllion to some scary guys.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-29-2024 , 08:47 AM
surely tom beats poker in macau right? i mean he is better than the business man there... did he lose that much money playing poker or did he degen out in other casino games?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-29-2024 , 09:44 AM
Pretty sure his debts are poker related and otherwise, the most reasonable scenario is that he lost too much in one spot or spent too much recklessly and whoever was backing him (the dangerous guys) pulled the plug and said **** it we’re not giving you anymore money

Games could also be harder to find, might not even be allowed to play in them

Last edited by Stumeister; 03-29-2024 at 09:54 AM.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
03-29-2024 , 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosaParks1
Peter Jetten complained about Dwan not really being responsive/active in paying him a debt owed from staking. Haralabos chimed in (this is all on twitter) that he was also owed by Dwan.

Dwan had half a podcast and said the situations weren't as clear as indicated, but didn't really provide much extra info. Jetten is about 1.6 million into makeup on a staking deal with Dwan (and allegedly Ike), and that's why Dwan is slow in paying. Haralabos allegedly skirted the rules (Dwan's mumbling) of the NBA by having Dwan place ghostbets for him (since Bob is banned/limited from some books), and Dwan is disputing the actual sum owed also.

There is some other debt out there, most notably Jungleman's challenge debt (Dwan has paid sidebets and some large penalties but probably still technically owes more. Jungleman weighed in said that he's okay with the situation and that Dwan is a good guy who stuck up for him a few times.

Lastly, people are still alleging that Dwan owes the "triad" many millions of dollars. This is an old rumor from his time in Macau, and the more likely story is that he has some debts/favors owed to the gamerunners which is likely Paul Phua who organizes the big Triton games. While he likely owes Paul Phua tons of money, Phua is a professional and doesn't air his business out on twitter like a fool, nor does he want Dwan's quality of life impacted. This is like a dealer being on the sheet at a poker club; it's an ideal situation for the owner and he doesn't want the dealer to deviate in any way from their current situation, nor is he going to keep the dealer from putting SOME money in their pocket.

ITT there have been some screenshots of twitter posts, and discussion of whether Tom is right or not. All this is hypothetical since Tom nor the other side has really decided on a middle ground of what is owed and why. At some point, people began arguing the side of bookies banning sharps, and this is when the thread ceased to have anything in it but analogies and arguing. Hope this helps.
I didn't even try to slog through Dwan's mumbo jumbo since I learned from the J4 fiasco that the dude basically thinks on a different wavelength from regular humans

But piecing together all the disparate pieces, what I think can be concluded is that Dwan doesn't dispute Jetten's claim about he owes, but rather he got pissy that the dude won't give him a discount after Dwan gave him a discount on the 1.6 mil makeup. So Dwan through his mumbo jumbo meandering is saying he doesn't owe Jetten because the discount he gave Jetten for the 1.6 mil was more than what he owes him for the $200k+.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-02-2024 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lwlee
I didn't even try to slog through Dwan's mumbo jumbo since I learned from the J4 fiasco that the dude basically thinks on a different wavelength from regular humans

But piecing together all the disparate pieces, what I think can be concluded is that Dwan doesn't dispute Jetten's claim about he owes, but rather he got pissy that the dude won't give him a discount after Dwan gave him a discount on the 1.6 mil makeup. So Dwan through his mumbo jumbo meandering is saying he doesn't owe Jetten because the discount he gave Jetten for the 1.6 mil was more than what he owes him for the $200k+.
I don’t believe dwan was even arguing that… Dwan said he just wanted the receipts and would pay.


I think only people here were saying that it’s kinda messed up when you take a step back and consider the makeup figure.

But again the make up has nothing to do w these buy ins. The make up is a separate deal that jetten doesn’t owe. He either has to play more , unlikely, or dwan and the partner have to decide to cut him free way more likely. A 3rd option would be jetten buying out of make up. But that doesn’t make sense since Jetten doesn’t intend to do more deals w dwan or other people in poker. But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup. I know people in poker for 20 years who still don’t understand the concept. The horse doesn’t owe the money unless he wins it back to cover the red figure.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-02-2024 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerEthics
I don’t believe dwan was even arguing that… Dwan said he just wanted the receipts and would pay.


I think only people here were saying that it’s kinda messed up when you take a step back and consider the makeup figure.

But again the make up has nothing to do w these buy ins. The make up is a separate deal that jetten doesn’t owe. He either has to play more , unlikely, or dwan and the partner have to decide to cut him free way more likely. A 3rd option would be jetten buying out of make up. But that doesn’t make sense since Jetten doesn’t intend to do more deals w dwan or other people in poker. But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup. I know people in poker for 20 years who still don’t understand the concept. The horse doesn’t owe the money unless he wins it back to cover the red figure.
The entire concept of staking is the staker is putting up the money, sure you could buy out of makeup to get even and get a better payout in the future but besides that the staker is responsible for the money at all times.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-03-2024 , 09:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerEthics
I don’t believe dwan was even arguing that… Dwan said he just wanted the receipts and would pay.

I think only people here were saying that it’s kinda messed up when you take a step back and consider the makeup figure.

But again the make up has nothing to do w these buy ins. The make up is a separate deal that jetten doesn’t owe. He either has to play more , unlikely, or dwan and the partner have to decide to cut him free way more likely. A 3rd option would be jetten buying out of make up. But that doesn’t make sense since Jetten doesn’t intend to do more deals w dwan or other people in poker. But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup. I know people in poker for 20 years who still don’t understand the concept. The horse doesn’t owe the money unless he wins it back to cover the red figure.
Dwan wanting receipts was just his pissy way to weasel out of what he owed. As Dwan mentioned, he and Jetten were friends so their word was good enough. Dwan suddenly "forgetting" a simple thing like how he much gave Jetten for the buyin is BS. Dwan has done the SAME thing to Haralbob. Delaying and making up excuses to not pay what he owes.

"But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup" WTFF???!! You owe the person you made the deal with. Makeup isn't some magical bucket of debt that you can just throw your losses into. Stakee has an obligation to pay back what he owes to the staker. Even if you "retired" like that lawyer girl Catlin did, if you ever go back to poker, you still owe the staker, the makeup.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-03-2024 , 10:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lwlee
Dwan wanting receipts was just his pissy way to weasel out of what he owed. As Dwan mentioned, he and Jetten were friends so their word was good enough. Dwan suddenly "forgetting" a simple thing like how he much gave Jetten for the buyin is BS. Dwan has done the SAME thing to Haralbob. Delaying and making up excuses to not pay what he owes.

"But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup" WTFF???!! You owe the person you made the deal with. Makeup isn't some magical bucket of debt that you can just throw your losses into. Stakee has an obligation to pay back what he owes to the staker. Even if you "retired" like that lawyer girl Catlin did, if you ever go back to poker, you still owe the staker, the makeup.
I agree w most of what you said… except make up is def a magical bucket of debt. That’s the glorious nature of playing on someone else’s dime. You only owe that money if they are dumb enough to keep putting you in!

But ya if jetten goes back to poker I agree he owes dwan then. But that’s what’s so magical. He doesn’t have to play another hand of poker and thus wouldn’t owe anything.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-03-2024 , 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lwlee
Dwan wanting receipts was just his pissy way to weasel out of what he owed. As Dwan mentioned, he and Jetten were friends so their word was good enough. Dwan suddenly "forgetting" a simple thing like how he much gave Jetten for the buyin is BS. Dwan has done the SAME thing to Haralbob. Delaying and making up excuses to not pay what he owes.

"But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup" WTFF???!! You owe the person you made the deal with. Makeup isn't some magical bucket of debt that you can just throw your losses into. Stakee has an obligation to pay back what he owes to the staker. Even if you "retired" like that lawyer girl Catlin did, if you ever go back to poker, you still owe the staker, the makeup.
Makeup is actually some magical bucket of debt in the sense that the debt only exists when the person you owe the makeup to is fully staking you in events. There is no other obligation on the horse to repay unless the backer is fully backing like agreed upon. So if Dwan is gg , then Peter doesnt have to pay him 1.6m out of pocket. Now if Dwan is not GG, then Peter cant be playing under any other deal or his own action without fulfilling his obligation playing under Dwan stake.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-04-2024 , 05:56 AM
It's like Tom had some really good weed, and he smoked Peter down many times. Then when Tom was dry he wanted to smoke some of Peter's weed, who refused.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-04-2024 , 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Standard Station
Makeup is actually some magical bucket of debt in the sense that the debt only exists when the person you owe the makeup to is fully staking you in events. There is no other obligation on the horse to repay unless the backer is fully backing like agreed upon. So if Dwan is gg , then Peter doesnt have to pay him 1.6m out of pocket. Now if Dwan is not GG, then Peter cant be playing under any other deal or his own action without fulfilling his obligation playing under Dwan stake.
Thanks Tom! Now I finally understand the mumbo jumbo! Magical bucket of debt! gg! of course! Jetten ACTUALLY owes you 3.2m just cuz you are you!
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-04-2024 , 10:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuma
It's like Tom had some really good weed, and he smoked Peter down many times. Then when Tom was dry he wanted to smoke some of Peter's weed, who refused.
Exactly.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-05-2024 , 02:18 PM
Looks like unsurprisingly Dwan lost the arbitration according to Jetten's twitter.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-05-2024 , 04:08 PM
He said Dwan has an insolvency any details on that?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-05-2024 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag
He said Dwan has an insolvency any details on that?
He means Dwan is broke. He isn't referring to an actual legal process.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-05-2024 , 06:26 PM
He might be but with Crypto at 70k I highly doubt Dwan is broke. Maybe he's not liquid but he's not broke.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-05-2024 , 07:00 PM
hmmm funny that acr has been delaying payouts since they employed dwan, and now he can pay his debts off?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-06-2024 , 05:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag
He might be but with Crypto at 70k I highly doubt Dwan is broke. Maybe he's not liquid but he's not broke.
Dwan definitely has that gambler mentality where if he was late on Bitcoin and thought the biggest part of the boom was over (now I can only hope for 10x returns at best so boring...) he would have dumped his money into some other shitcoin instead hoping to 1000x. I wouldnt be surprised if he lost more money on something like Terra Luna than he earned on Bitcoin.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-06-2024 , 09:27 AM
I would be very surprised if someone with the degen brain wiring of Dwan is really capable of riding a full trend like Bitcoin's while sitting still and not messing up.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
04-06-2024 , 10:31 AM
yeah Dwan infinitely more likely to swing trade with 70x leverage than to buy and hold
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote

      
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