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Tom Dwan - the missing man Tom Dwan - the missing man

07-15-2016 , 08:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BustedNuts16
how does everyone know he's busto and it isn't just pure speculation?
Pure speculation, He was playing in January a game with a Min Buy-in of HKD10M (More than $1M). This is confirmed and even if doesn't have all his action it's not what busto people usually do.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kidman411
Lot of issues at play and none of them point to any realistic chance of long term success in poker. .0001% chance this storyline turns around? Yes, all that stuff is stressful and interrupts his ability to think clearly, focus on poker, and separate himself from results.



A huge driving factor that gets overlooked IMO is the effort he put into poker that drove his rise & the state of his brain compared to earlier in his career. Everyone talks about durrr's genius but I'd bet he was one of the hardest working poker players (think in terms of player intensity) for a long time. Our body's weren't meant to handle that kind of pressure over an extended period of time. Tom probably knows only 1 gear that leads to him > all poker players. It's been 10+ years of this, he's nowhere near as interested in the game as when he started and has nowhere near the brain power (Google some fMRI images about the brain & addiction, all that winning & stimulation flooded his system with dopamine at the time and lead to other changes in the body like a testosterone boost... this makes people more aggressive & competitive. Losing decreases testosterone production). Tom depended a lot on his bluffing ability & creativity early in his career... As the brain fully develops in males (25-26 usually) they become more risk averse (because the hypothalamus matures... Not just bc of life experience & learning about risk of ruin). Short term memory naturally declines in the 30's as well (and in Tom's case amplified bc of stress). Anxiety often leads to depression + his dad died. This creates emotional instability (which adds to the storm and isn't very acceptable for one of the best poker players in the world). These are just some of the biological factors that lead to being unable to cognitively perform at a previous off the charts level. Trying to force improved performance via increasing effort will be short lived by now. Tom has to be exhausted. This is to be expected for anyone in this type of situation. I'd bet a lot of high stakes players of the same era can relate. I could until getting out of poker.



The biggest problem now is his definition of success is nowhere close to what it would have been when he started poker (addiction). Whether or not he has a couple mil it feels like peanuts bc he always compares it to the past (with a lot of help from the poker community). He probably knows he will never be the very best on the felt again. To Tom success = being the best poker player in the world (which also = one of the richest through poker). So he chases this via the Chinese businessman. The chances of getting what he wants (or can accept without a drastic change in expectations) out of poker are slim to none. He can only over perform again by dramatically lowering expectations (I'm sure at 1 point he was confident he'd make $100 mil) which will be close to impossible by staying in poker.


Really good post, mostly wasted in here but appreciated by some cheers


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 08:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiwall
Pure speculation, He was playing in January a game with a Min Buy-in of HKD10M (More than $1M). This is confirmed and even if doesn't have all his action it's not what busto people usually do.
Uhm not to be a downer but he's busto in the sense that he has a couple mill only of which about 1M is his and the rest is borrowed. I'm not surprised he's still degening it up trying to earn back his former riches and pay off his debts and still be rich.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiwall
Pure speculation, He was playing in January a game with a Min Buy-in of HKD10M (More than $1M). This is confirmed and even if doesn't have all his action it's not what busto people usually do.
Exactly. Even his best friend said "you wouldn't know if tom had $50 or $50MM to his name at any given point."

He's obv playing monster games this thread can only chong too
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrno1324
Uhm not to be a downer but he's busto in the sense that he has a couple mill only of which about 1M is his and the rest is borrowed. I'm not surprised he's still degening it up trying to earn back his former riches and pay off his debts and still be rich.
You have no idea his financial situation just like no one knows Ivey's or any other gambler for that matter.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BustedNuts16
You have no idea his financial situation just like no one knows Ivey's or any other gambler for that matter.
I hate to reference jungleman all the time about this but he hears from Tom every once in a while about the durrrr challenge so he's pretty trustworthy on the topic of Tom's net worth and he said pretty much exactly what I just told you.
The alternative is that he's randomly lying for the lolz. Do you think that it's more likely that well known and successful jungleman is lying to everyone because his testicle itches or that an established degen finally went broke?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 02:22 PM
when was last Dwan on U.S soil sighting after the Phua situation???

do wonder if he cant come back to the U.S at all

his passport must be hilarious and mostly all Asia and S.E Asia lol. What is the possibility that he might get locked up, if steps foot on U.S soil for whatever reasons. im surprised this possibility is never trolled up. He left a lengthy paper trail, playing very large a mounts of money all over, youd hope he filed everything correctly etc, or even the Phua deal didn't mess him up or something.

im more looking for anything that indicates hes actually stepped foot on U.S soil, and as more time goes by im gonna start believing thats the actual problem, for whatever reasons.


is prison actually what he is scared of
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 02:59 PM
I like Kidman411's post and could agree with the logic.

As it always seems to be with non-stop gambling, one never knows when to stop. It would be nice to know when you've reached your peak, or high water mark, in terms of your bankroll or life savings or net worth, but when you are an addicted gambler and start heading downhill, you always think of your biggest wins and how it could happen again, or how you could get back to where you were when you were "on top".

Sadly, that's not in the percentages, over a gambler's lifetime, IMHO.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnNashJr
his passport must be hilarious and mostly all Asia and S.E Asia lol.
Southeast Asia is a part of Asia. You could just say Asia.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 11:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BustedNuts16
how does everyone know he's busto and it isn't just pure speculation?
If he was loaded he wouldn't scam jungleman and ruin his reputation over $1.5 million.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnNashJr
when was last Dwan on U.S soil sighting after the Phua situation???

do wonder if he cant come back to the U.S at all

his passport must be hilarious and mostly all Asia and S.E Asia lol. What is the possibility that he might get locked up, if steps foot on U.S soil for whatever reasons. im surprised this possibility is never trolled up. He left a lengthy paper trail, playing very large a mounts of money all over, youd hope he filed everything correctly etc, or even the Phua deal didn't mess him up or something.

im more looking for anything that indicates hes actually stepped foot on U.S soil, and as more time goes by im gonna start believing thats the actual problem, for whatever reasons.


is prison actually what he is scared of
I hate to bring it up but I'm sure he was here last month for his fathers funeral, I would think so anyway
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-15-2016 , 11:41 PM
So he did not play the Main?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-16-2016 , 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiwall
Pure speculation, He was playing in January a game with a Min Buy-in of HKD10M (More than $1M). This is confirmed and even if doesn't have all his action it's not what busto people usually do.
Is Min Buy-in a triad boss?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-16-2016 , 11:01 AM
If Tom still has a million dollars to his name he should leave Macau and move to Idaho where the Chinese mafia can't find him.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-16-2016 , 09:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by epcfast
Is Min Buy-in a triad boss?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-16-2016 , 10:57 PM
Hellmuth was right confirmed.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-17-2016 , 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kidman411
Lot of issues at play and none of them point to any realistic chance of long term success in poker. .0001% chance this storyline turns around? Yes, all that stuff is stressful and interrupts his ability to think clearly, focus on poker, and separate himself from results.

A huge driving factor that gets overlooked IMO is the effort he put into poker that drove his rise & the state of his brain compared to earlier in his career. Everyone talks about durrr's genius but I'd bet he was one of the hardest working poker players (think in terms of player intensity) for a long time. Our body's weren't meant to handle that kind of pressure over an extended period of time. Tom probably knows only 1 gear that leads to him > all poker players. It's been 10+ years of this, he's nowhere near as interested in the game as when he started and has nowhere near the brain power (Google some fMRI images about the brain & addiction, all that winning & stimulation flooded his system with dopamine at the time and lead to other changes in the body like a testosterone boost... this makes people more aggressive & competitive. Losing decreases testosterone production). Tom depended a lot on his bluffing ability & creativity early in his career... As the brain fully develops in males (25-26 usually) they become more risk averse (because the hypothalamus matures... Not just bc of life experience & learning about risk of ruin). Short term memory naturally declines in the 30's as well (and in Tom's case amplified bc of stress). Anxiety often leads to depression + his dad died. This creates emotional instability (which adds to the storm and isn't very acceptable for one of the best poker players in the world). These are just some of the biological factors that lead to being unable to cognitively perform at a previous off the charts level. Trying to force improved performance via increasing effort will be short lived by now. Tom has to be exhausted. This is to be expected for anyone in this type of situation. I'd bet a lot of high stakes players of the same era can relate. I could until getting out of poker.

The biggest problem now is his definition of success is nowhere close to what it would have been when he started poker (addiction). Whether or not he has a couple mil it feels like peanuts bc he always compares it to the past (with a lot of help from the poker community). He probably knows he will never be the very best on the felt again. To Tom success = being the best poker player in the world (which also = one of the richest through poker). So he chases this via the Chinese businessman. The chances of getting what he wants (or can accept without a drastic change in expectations) out of poker are slim to none. He can only over perform again by dramatically lowering expectations (I'm sure at 1 point he was confident he'd make $100 mil) which will be close to impossible by staying in poker.
Don't chess grandmasters peak age 31? How different can poker peak be?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-17-2016 , 02:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bstillmatic
If Tom still has a million dollars to his name he should leave Macau and move to Idaho where the Chinese mafia can't find him.
I doubt that. There are even Chinese restaurants in Iceland. I doubt he can be safe from the Chinese mafia anywhere in the world if he's wanted by them
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-17-2016 , 03:39 PM
You fellas really put the G in NVG
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-17-2016 , 04:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bstillmatic
If Tom still has a million dollars to his name he should leave Macau and move to Idaho where the Chinese mafia can't find him.
Do the Chinese mafia not have Google Maps?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-17-2016 , 05:06 PM
My guess is he would have payed Jungleman if he had the money. Tom seems like a nice dude.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-20-2016 , 12:36 PM
Spotted him Sunday afternoon, outside of Tom's Place at NYNY on the patio.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-20-2016 , 02:17 PM
how do u know it was him? was he wearing the flamingo hat? was he shackled to Min Buy-in?
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-20-2016 , 04:47 PM
Min Buy-in is the untracked head of the 5k triad in europe
He controls Isildur's deposits.
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote
07-20-2016 , 07:22 PM
Min Buy-In has me rolling
Tom Dwan - the missing man Quote

      
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