Oh Boy. Here We Go Again.

While it is very very difficult to discuss the 2020 WSOP (live) prospects as well as the 2021 WSOP prospects without mentioning the government's response to the Covid pandemic, here in NVG we entreat you to do so without making it a Flame War about Trump.

It is perfectly understandable for people to have strong views on that subject ("both sides"), but NVG is not the place to debate Trump's presidency. There are many many places on 2+2 and elsewhere on the internet to debate Trump as much as you like.

Having said that, it is certainly allowed to discuss the government's response to Covid and its effect on Poker and the WSOP (federal government, state governments, etc.) in NVG. We only ask that you don't make Trump a focus of the post since it only serves to inflame things. Maybe refer to "the federal government", "the current administration", etc.

Thank you for your cooperation.

No politics in NVG. Two users who know this by now have been banned for 3 days and all related political posts have been removed. Carry on.

huh?

Do you want to sit in a cage?

Okay. I don't want to get into an argument that isn't going to change anyone's mind, but here are some basic facts. California is closing many of its poker rooms. I live in the Chicago area. Poker rooms in Wisconsin, Indiana, and Illinois have no plans that I know of to reopen anytime soon. I know Florida still open. Does anyone but a degen want to play in that situation right now? Same goes for New Mexico and Arizona. Look, I know some rooms are open. But is it worth it for the vast majority of players?

I predict we are going to see similar problems when baseball 'reopens' and then has to close again.

Right now the smart thing to do is back off and be patient. A few more months without poker or baseball, for that matter, isn't that big a deal.

I'm not stepping foot in a casino til there's a vaccine. I've been around poker rooms and gamblers long enough to know that they are a nasty bunch who don't even follow current events. They probably still haven't showered since March or realized there's a pandemic.

The head of the FDA said today that he expects around 700,000 Americans will infected every day going forward (with around 60,000 confirmed cases).

That’s 20 million new infections per month. At this pace, we will achieve the herd immunity threshold of around 2/3 of the country being infected in March or April.

So I would expect the WSOP should be able to run easily whether we have a vaccine or not.

please stop spreading misinformation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/h...ntl/index.html

there are plenty of other (international) sources if you feel that this one isn't trustworthy. there is still a chance that herd immunity is achievable, but we will have to wait and see.

in addition, i hope you realize the tragic consequences of having 2/3 of the population infected by March, hospital overruns everywhere.

i have to correct myself, current models do indeed show that herd immunity might be achievable when ~2/3 of the population is infected. so technically Nick is right, if the hosting country doesn't slow the spread and accepts deaths in the millions over the next year we might have a WSOP.

This was the first year in 15 years I wasn't in Vegas for my annual 10-15 day WSOP trip. It's been totally soul sucking. I really hope it comes back strong next year, but things are just progressing at such a glacial pace. The country (politics aside) are just not doing things in a coordinated, unified way, and it's leading to this thing just dragging out forever. I honestly don't think thousands of people from outside the US will be wanting to travel for the WSOP so soon next year. I think even if it happens, it will be a much smaller version with reduced fields and it might come back full strength in 2022. I really hope I am wrong of course. We need a PardoG trip report for next year anyway!

I don't think it'll get that far.

Once we get 2x or 3x our current deaths, the morons not taking this seriously will wake up.

Polls show 40% of people will refuse to take a vaccine. So what good is one under those conditions? Unless WSOP makes you take a vaccine at the time of registration or you don't get to play. (or show proof of vaccine)

I absolutely have to start doing this. Taking a 2 week trip to the wsop every summer sounds so fun.
Like i said, ive never been, but i dont have much doubt that ill love it.

If you’re part of the 60% vaccinated, why would you have to worry?

grunching...

what will be different about june/july 2021 vs. this year?... is govt hoping the CV goes away? serious question, i don't know. 2nd wave etc.

i feel like at some point we need either:

1) hard core shutdown for 2-3 weeks....... no one goes anywhere. the govt delivers your food. you stay in your house. big penalties for leaving house. actually they could just shut the roads.

2) or... govt does controlled spread of the virus.. starting with young, healthy people and target "herd immunity"

otherwise, i just see 2021, 2022, 2023 etc. being the same as today.. vaccine might work. HUGE administrative effort to get billions vaccinated. severe medical glass shortage today (for example)

#2 might just be the stupidest suggestion I've ever heard.

This is what we should have been doing months ago, at the same time as the start of the lockdown. But all deliberate infections should definitely be voluntary and accompanied by a strict quarantine. This would have allowed us to gradually open up only for those with immunity with little risk to the more vulnerable parts of the population.

From my point of view, im seeing some pretty extreme optimism about vaccines coming, and im seeing good results of vaccine trials like the pfizer vaccine candidate had, and it seems like more and more treatment options will be developed. So, my hope is that we will be able to just slow this virus down to a crawl and end this freakin thing.
As far as the vaccine supply, they are doing at risk development, meaning that they are mass producing a bunch of these vaccines before they know for sure that they will work. But getting enough vaccine doses for everyone in the world that wants it seems like it will take a while.

If it turns out that vaccines wont work and no really good treatment options become available, i dont think anyone really knows what the plan will be. It would be a s!%# show. Fortunately, i dont think it will end like that.

What good is one? I get to take it. I don't particularly care if that 40% want to play with fire since it doesn't hurt me.

There are at least two vaccine candidates entering stage 3 trials now or very soon. Stage 1 and 2 are largely about dosing and safety. Stage 3 is about final proof it works Sure something about one or both could bomb but it is not likely plus there are dozens not far behind.

There is enough confidence ramping up production has already happened in at least a couple of cases to improve availability at approval. This is a multi billion $ bet by people who are normally conservative in their bets.

lol, phase 3 is what takes the longest. Its not about whether or not it works, they need time to see if there's negative side effects.

A vaccine only needs to be 70% effective to kill off a virus. Transmission becomes difficult enough for it to die out. I bet some of the 40% would change their stupid minds if and when it proves effective.

There is hope.

The scary thing would be for it to mutate so that a vaccine is only effective for 6 months. The damn thing might go round and round in ever changing form. I read of some evidence that immunity in people who have had it is significantly reduced after 3 months.

Is it political to say that people suggesting a controlled spread of a deadly virus by the Us government are dangerous sociopaths

There’s no 2021 WSOP if the US continues to have the worlds worst coronavirus response

pretty sure my family had covid in december. My aunt got an antibody test months later and it didn't show up. I think antibodies are temporary with covid. Covid has made me really not like being around people. I can't imagine sitting at WSOP with a bunch of stinky coughing randos.

Agreed.

This seems pretty odd. I mean, I've read that antibodies quite possibly don't last long, and that there may have been cases in North America that earlier than have been confirmed. But what makes you be pretty sure that your family had it a month or more before the earliest confirmed case?

FWIW, I believe December is the earliest that cases even in Wuhan date back to at this point.

You didn’t have covid in December.

Wondering if you had COVID-19 in December or January? You probably didn't