I have what I would consider a VERY strong read that ZHu's range is at least as low as KK+ there.

It’s not perfect but for purposes of this decision a good analysis. If you’re playing online I could understand this perspective. Here though... given the circumstances and prior opportunity to gain reads hero should have picked up enough info by now to realize there’s close to 0% chance Manion ships AKs without hesitation. Similar with QQ. He’s giving more consideration to both of those hands.

Only with AA or KK is he fist pumping to get it all in. He also may have mixed feelings about seeing a 3way pot at this inflection point and is more likely to have little concern for revealing the strength of his hand.

I would disagree. Zhu could of thought Manion would have probably raised pre flop with tens, jacks, Queens, Ace Queen, and Ace King. Manion might even have just called under the gun with Aces to set a trap like Labatt tried to do.

Zhu had to believe he was much stronger than Labatt and since Manion could of had the hands I mentioned above, Zhu would have been correct to go all in to get Labatt out if he figured his Kings (or Queens) most likely had Manion beat.

For all the talk of the the kings being -ev in the solver (even with questionable preflop ranges given), what about all the value gained if the player with KK overcalls and wins and now has free reign to run over the FT with a huge chiplead? This is an unknown variable that solvers (for now?) are unable to quantify. These spots are not as black and white as the ICMizer/ pro poker tools outputs make them seem imo.

You have KK. You forgot to raise, which you should have done. Had he raised, I could see a fold to two shoves. But as played, wtf, I never fold KK there.

If Zhu had shoved AK, QQ, or even JJ (not unreasonable given a standard open and flat), and Manion had iso-allin-raised with AK or QQ (also not unreasonable), would everyone here would be saying Labat folding KK was the worst play ever, if he folded KK?

FWIW, Manion - the guy with aces in the hand everyone's talking about - actually folded kings face up to dodge the bullets on an earlier hand.



It turns out that if you manage to fold kings pre-flop, you get to live the dream:

Labat was the beneficiary of AA vs KK and QQ on Day 6 that vaulted him into the tournament chip lead.
https://www.pokernews.com/tours/wsop...ips.229980.htm


what comes around goes around in poker

I think it's cool to see these sick ICM spots in one of the highest equity spots there is in all of MTT poker.

For everyone analysing this spot in depth after the fact, everything looks better in hindsight it's hard to say if it is a gross misplay if you're the one sitting there with the decision to make in the moment looking at a pay jump worth more than most people make in a year.

I can’t imagine Labat was trying to set that up. If he was he insta calls when it gets back to him and he thought for probably about 30 seconds before he moved in

I mean, even when I've fantasized a final table ME hand, I wouldn't have the balls to make it an AA vs. KK vs. KK.

The size of Manion's stack probably played a role in that. If it was one of the shorter ones (barely more than Zhu) he may have called quicker.

I wonder how much being on TV played a role. No one wants to incorrectly fold KK on tv.

And holy ****, me and Manion are on the same page with the KK fold. That was some serious shade he just threw at Labat - “Easy fold.” If Cada doesn’t win now I want him to win haha

It's never "easy" to fold KK however if you made a list of situations where you really need to this is extremely high on the list.

If you're putting a high premium on maximizing your chance of winning the tournament, a call isn't all that terrible.

In terms of real world $ it's probably -EV.

I think others have mentioned, the main reason he probably called was that he initially limped trying to play trappy. He knew his hand was was under represented. It's hard to change your mindset from "I'm trapping!" to "**** I should fold this" in an instant.

Given the circumstances people would have at least understood his reasoning. It's a tournament and pay jumps are huge right now, avoiding putting your life at risk and ticking up the pay ladder is an understandable concern.

If you're folding Kings because you're afraid of "putting your life at risk" (which wasn't true anyway), there's no way you ever make it this deep to begin with. Furthermore, if you are folding Kings cuz "me too scared", your opponents will absolutely rape and pillage you with light shoves. That doesn't mean there aren't times to fold Kings, and this spot certainly was not a slam dunk, but the way he under-repped his hand, you can't automatically assume Aces are out there. And really it's only Manion you are concerned about, and he would be iso-jamming with AKs, QQ, etc. since you just flat-called with Kings behind.

Anyway, here's Polk's take on the hand (Hand Analysis starts ~4:22):

NVG strat advice thread, excellent

These are basically the exact ranges I guessed in the WSOP thread.

The other thing I think people are skipping is that if Zhu has AA, Manion probably doesn't - which means Labat probably gets the side pot - so he still has 50M at the end of the hand and makes the FT.

The chinese guy literally never has aces, you usually have him crushed because you block AK. Mannion has AA a decent amount but nowhere near enough for you to fold.

LOL at ever considering folding here after flatting the open. If he did fold and was against qq and jj and misses out on shipping this pot then this thread would be made today calling it the worst fold ever.

dude what on earth compelled you to quote the entire OP???

Even by these adjustments and adding in QQ/AKs to marion's range it's still a fold. Fwiw I actually think ranges would be significantly tighter, such as Zhu probably flatting JJ. It's still a 40bb+ jam on 10 handed ft bubble vs EP open and EP flat. Additionally, if Manion decides to go for it with QQ/AK, then I'm almost certain he takes some time to ponder instead of instantly jamming after 10 seconds, like checking stack counts and whatnot. Noone is actually excited to gii with QQ/AK in this spot.

So even though KK is still a fold vs Zhu having JJ+/AK and Manion having QQ+/AKs, in reality I believe Zhu has QQ+/AK and Marion KK+ based on timing, which makes KK a very easy fold.

I still feel like Zhu's 3-bet size is being ignored.
Is he really shoving for 17x the original raise with his entire 3-bet range?
Shouldn't there be room here to have a range to 3-bet/fold to ~5MM?
If so, shouldn't at least AA also be in that range?

FYP.

I think that's a pretty dumb statement to make, probably because you actually have no counter argument even though you've been going against the idea of folding KK through the entire thread. There are mathematical and empirical points in what I posted, but since you can counter with neither, you're just posting nonsense as usual.