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Old 07-12-2018, 05:17 PM   #51
PokerHero77
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by yimyammer View Post
How do we know Labat wasn't hoping to induce a squeeze play and got exactly what he was trying to set up?
This is the only sensible line of reasoning I could put on Labat's flat.

Problem is he got his LP raise but could not rationalize his hand was now no good.
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Old 07-12-2018, 05:52 PM   #52
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by boohaa12 View Post
ZHU getting it in there is enough of a reason for Labat to fold. Labat has to struggle to give Zhu even AK there when Labat is holding 2 of the Kings, KK.
ZHU doesnt smash all in with even QQ there. ZHUs range is AA+, basically asleep at the table and had flatted AK 2 hands earlier, playing like 5% of hands or less.
This is also ignoring Manoin completely.

Anyone can call a stack off like Labat did. A stronger player can fold.
I have what I would consider a VERY strong read that ZHu's range is at least as low as KK+ there.
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Old 07-12-2018, 05:52 PM   #53
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by NMcNasty View Post
So read through OP, just felt like there was a lot of needless graph posting and range analysis when what it comes down to is that villain is given a human estimated range of (KK, AA) when hero has KK. Yes, when you give villain that range obviously your KK isn't going to be profitable.

Mainly I just disagree with giving even a tight player that tight of a range. I think queens and AKs are shoves more often than not (and they should be), while there's also a small chance TT+, and AQs will get it in. Certainly its a lot more likely than "not a ****ing chance" that those hands will be in a shoving range. That said, sure its possible the player actually is that tight, and maybe because making the main event final table is an extraordinary poker circumstance it causes just normally tight players to become freakishly tight. But if that's your argument, you should probably just say it, graphs and calculators don't really seem to have much relevance then.

Still, it does seem crazy counter-intuitive that KK is even a fold if QQ+ is villain's shoving range. Its a neutral chip EV rakeless flip where blinds, antes, and player with weaker range shoving behind is just added value. I'm half surprised, half disbelieving that ICM considerations trump all that value.
It’s not perfect but for purposes of this decision a good analysis. If you’re playing online I could understand this perspective. Here though... given the circumstances and prior opportunity to gain reads hero should have picked up enough info by now to realize there’s close to 0% chance Manion ships AKs without hesitation. Similar with QQ. He’s giving more consideration to both of those hands.

Only with AA or KK is he fist pumping to get it all in. He also may have mixed feelings about seeing a 3way pot at this inflection point and is more likely to have little concern for revealing the strength of his hand.

Last edited by Kidman411; 07-12-2018 at 06:02 PM.
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Old 07-12-2018, 06:04 PM   #54
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by boohaa12 View Post
ZHU getting it in there is enough of a reason for Labat to fold. Labat has to struggle to give Zhu even AK there when Labat is holding 2 of the Kings, KK. ZHU doesnt smash all in with even QQ there...
I would disagree. Zhu could of thought Manion would have probably raised pre flop with tens, jacks, Queens, Ace Queen, and Ace King. Manion might even have just called under the gun with Aces to set a trap like Labatt tried to do.

Zhu had to believe he was much stronger than Labatt and since Manion could of had the hands I mentioned above, Zhu would have been correct to go all in to get Labatt out if he figured his Kings (or Queens) most likely had Manion beat.

Last edited by Well Read Ted; 07-12-2018 at 06:19 PM.
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Old 07-12-2018, 06:15 PM   #55
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

For all the talk of the the kings being -ev in the solver (even with questionable preflop ranges given), what about all the value gained if the player with KK overcalls and wins and now has free reign to run over the FT with a huge chiplead? This is an unknown variable that solvers (for now?) are unable to quantify. These spots are not as black and white as the ICMizer/ pro poker tools outputs make them seem imo.
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Old 07-12-2018, 07:09 PM   #56
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

You have KK. You forgot to raise, which you should have done. Had he raised, I could see a fold to two shoves. But as played, wtf, I never fold KK there.
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Old 07-12-2018, 07:45 PM   #57
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

If Zhu had shoved AK, QQ, or even JJ (not unreasonable given a standard open and flat), and Manion had iso-allin-raised with AK or QQ (also not unreasonable), would everyone here would be saying Labat folding KK was the worst play ever, if he folded KK?
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Old 07-12-2018, 07:52 PM   #58
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

FWIW, Manion - the guy with aces in the hand everyone's talking about - actually folded kings face up to dodge the bullets on an earlier hand.

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Old 07-12-2018, 07:54 PM   #59
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
FWIW, Manion - the guy with aces in the hand everyone's talking about - actually folded kings face up to dodge the bullets on an earlier hand.

Doesn't show positions, but that's a legit spot to fold KK IMO
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Old 07-12-2018, 07:55 PM   #60
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

Labat was the beneficiary of AA vs KK and QQ on Day 6 that vaulted him into the tournament chip lead.
https://www.pokernews.com/tours/wsop...ips.229980.htm


what comes around goes around in poker
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:00 PM   #61
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

I think it's cool to see these sick ICM spots in one of the highest equity spots there is in all of MTT poker.

For everyone analysing this spot in depth after the fact, everything looks better in hindsight it's hard to say if it is a gross misplay if you're the one sitting there with the decision to make in the moment looking at a pay jump worth more than most people make in a year.
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:03 PM   #62
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by yimyammer View Post
I was thinking something similar (although I think I'd still fold).

How do we know Labat wasn't hoping to induce a squeeze play and got exactly what he was trying to set up?

Having said that, once Manion (who appeared to be playing tight) quickly pushes, I think I'd pucker up and save my 45+ Milly for another situation

problem with me is my tight ass will never be in this situation so wtf do I know?
I can’t imagine Labat was trying to set that up. If he was he insta calls when it gets back to him and he thought for probably about 30 seconds before he moved in
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:03 PM   #63
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

I mean, even when I've fantasized a final table ME hand, I wouldn't have the balls to make it an AA vs. KK vs. KK.
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:06 PM   #64
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by BMOL33 View Post
I can’t imagine Labat was trying to set that up. If he was he insta calls when it gets back to him and he thought for probably about 30 seconds before he moved in
The size of Manion's stack probably played a role in that. If it was one of the shorter ones (barely more than Zhu) he may have called quicker.
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:33 PM   #65
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

I wonder how much being on TV played a role. No one wants to incorrectly fold KK on tv.
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Old 07-12-2018, 09:59 PM   #66
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

And holy ****, me and Manion are on the same page with the KK fold. That was some serious shade he just threw at Labat - “Easy fold.” If Cada doesn’t win now I want him to win haha
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Old 07-12-2018, 11:48 PM   #67
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

It's never "easy" to fold KK however if you made a list of situations where you really need to this is extremely high on the list.

If you're putting a high premium on maximizing your chance of winning the tournament, a call isn't all that terrible.

In terms of real world $ it's probably -EV.

I think others have mentioned, the main reason he probably called was that he initially limped trying to play trappy. He knew his hand was was under represented. It's hard to change your mindset from "I'm trapping!" to "**** I should fold this" in an instant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFly View Post
If Zhu had shoved AK, QQ, or even JJ (not unreasonable given a standard open and flat), and Manion had iso-allin-raised with AK or QQ (also not unreasonable), would everyone here would be saying Labat folding KK was the worst play ever, if he folded KK?
Given the circumstances people would have at least understood his reasoning. It's a tournament and pay jumps are huge right now, avoiding putting your life at risk and ticking up the pay ladder is an understandable concern.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:43 AM   #68
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by Cotton Hill View Post
Given the circumstances people would have at least understood his reasoning. It's a tournament and pay jumps are huge right now, avoiding putting your life at risk and ticking up the pay ladder is an understandable concern.
If you're folding Kings because you're afraid of "putting your life at risk" (which wasn't true anyway), there's no way you ever make it this deep to begin with. Furthermore, if you are folding Kings cuz "me too scared", your opponents will absolutely rape and pillage you with light shoves. That doesn't mean there aren't times to fold Kings, and this spot certainly was not a slam dunk, but the way he under-repped his hand, you can't automatically assume Aces are out there. And really it's only Manion you are concerned about, and he would be iso-jamming with AKs, QQ, etc. since you just flat-called with Kings behind.

Anyway, here's Polk's take on the hand (Hand Analysis starts ~4:22):

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Old 07-13-2018, 01:32 AM   #69
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

NVG strat advice thread, excellent
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:33 AM   #70
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by Nerd e tron View Post
And holy ****, me and Manion are on the same page with the KK fold. That was some serious shade he just threw at Labat - “Easy fold.” If Cada doesn’t win now I want him to win haha
It's even funnier now that Manion has played like a total fish this FT.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:56 AM   #71
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton View Post
i would make the following range adjustments:

- add more suited connectors for Labat's first flat. stacks behind and tightness of UTG increase playability of hands like 87s

- i would remove AQs from Zhus range. i think he has JJ+/AK only.

add QQ to manions reshove range when factoring if labat should call. i dont think manion only reshoves KK+. i think he definitely reshoves QQ+. AK is debatable cuz i think in theory it might be a fold but i think manion could just shove AK because he has AK.

i appreciate the amt of work that was put into this, when opening NVG today i was expecting to see a "hurrrdurrr he should have folded kings DUH OBVIOUSLY" thread but generally those threads are made by idiots who dont put in the elbow grease. at least you ran some range calcs, thx.
These are basically the exact ranges I guessed in the WSOP thread.

The other thing I think people are skipping is that if Zhu has AA, Manion probably doesn't - which means Labat probably gets the side pot - so he still has 50M at the end of the hand and makes the FT.

Last edited by suzzer99; 07-13-2018 at 02:01 AM.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:59 AM   #72
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

The chinese guy literally never has aces, you usually have him crushed because you block AK. Mannion has AA a decent amount but nowhere near enough for you to fold.
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Old 07-13-2018, 02:11 AM   #73
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

LOL at ever considering folding here after flatting the open. If he did fold and was against qq and jj and misses out on shipping this pot then this thread would be made today calling it the worst fold ever.
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Old 07-13-2018, 02:19 AM   #74
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

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Originally Posted by SuicideSquad View Post
Lots of problems with this analysis....
dude what on earth compelled you to quote the entire OP???
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Old 07-13-2018, 02:25 AM   #75
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Re: A Terrible Call with Kings on the WSOP Main Event FT Bubble... and here's why (SPOILERS)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton View Post
i would make the following range adjustments:

- add more suited connectors for Labat's first flat. stacks behind and tightness of UTG increase playability of hands like 87s

- i would remove AQs from Zhus range. i think he has JJ+/AK only.
Even by these adjustments and adding in QQ/AKs to marion's range it's still a fold. Fwiw I actually think ranges would be significantly tighter, such as Zhu probably flatting JJ. It's still a 40bb+ jam on 10 handed ft bubble vs EP open and EP flat. Additionally, if Manion decides to go for it with QQ/AK, then I'm almost certain he takes some time to ponder instead of instantly jamming after 10 seconds, like checking stack counts and whatnot. Noone is actually excited to gii with QQ/AK in this spot.

So even though KK is still a fold vs Zhu having JJ+/AK and Manion having QQ+/AKs, in reality I believe Zhu has QQ+/AK and Marion KK+ based on timing, which makes KK a very easy fold.

Last edited by Alexo; 07-13-2018 at 02:39 AM.
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