What about the possibility of winning the main pot (against Manion) but losing the side pot (against Zhu)?
Also, I would think it would matter significantly whether Zhu busted in the process of Labat losing to Manion (which is of course what happened).

So say Manion is playing correctly* and only folding all non-AA, and Labat is also playing correctly* and folding all non-AA, is it then correct for any other player in the game to just jam any 2 cards?

AQs is the frac weighting. AQ does better against QQ+ for obvious reasons, but does worse against some AKs, if you dither the ranges around you'll find basically very very thin amounts of AQ and AK, for the purposes of this analysis it won't affect the result. You falsely equivocated say 5% AQo with 100% AQo, then used that as the basis of your analysis.

Against what, TT+ AQ+? Sure and if he jams AJ you are fistpumping. You can just do the math the way that I laid it out in the first post, here are the logical steps:

Set the UTG opening range 8-15% (try all of them in between)
Set the flat as completely dead for the purposes of the first jam
Set the jam as the correct ICM jam or fold, choosing to discount AA or not (hint: you won't see much AQo)
Original raiser is QQ+
Meaning original caller is AA+

Using these assumed ranges by Labat:
Zhu: JJ+, AKs, AK
Manion: KK+, AKs

I get the following chip EVs:

Labat: Starting 51M, after-hand 45.0M
Zhu: Starting 24M, after-hand 16.5M
Manion: Starting 43M, after-hand 58.7M

I glanced at a post above for Zhu better off with AQ than TT. I believe Zhu would likely not go all-in with TT, so I excluded that holding.

Labat scoops 20.9%, chops with Zhu 0.05%, and chops with Banion 5.6%. Three-way chop 0.44%.

I loosened Zhu's range and ran again.

Zhu: TT+, AQs+, AK
Manion: KK+, AKs

Labat: 51M -> 45.7M
Zhu: 24M -> 15.5M
Manion: 43M -> 59.0M

Labat scoops 22.1%, chops with Zhu 0.04%, chops with Manion 6.7%, and chops 3-way 0.42%.

Results similar compared with tighter range for Zhu.

AK/AKs and QQ (100% weighting), KK/JJ/AQs (75%), TT/AA (50%), AQo and 88/99 (10%) is what i said. Maybe push down TT/AA to 25%. It's 49ish% weighted equity. Chip EV is probably between 3 and 4 BBs and you cover the guy shoving by 20bbs.

note: he obviously doesn't have AKs from the perspective of labat given the speed of his call

Doesn't make sense as written.


I doubt anyone will care enough to solve for this. Waugh waugh.

Added AK off and QQ to Manion's range, widened Zhu, which makes Labat KK an easy call.

Zhu: 99+, ATs+, AJ+
Labat: QQ+, AKs, AK

Labat: 51M -> 73.1M
Zhu: 24M -> 15.6M
Labat: 43M -> 31.3M

Labat now scoops pot 45.1%, chops with Zhu 0.4%, chops with Manion 3.5%, and chops 3-way 0.4%.

He wins side against Manion 12.8%.

Can Labat put Manion on QQ or AK off?

If you’re going to widen Zhu’s shoving range down to AJ/ATs in that spot, then it seems like you might as well keep widening it.

Sure, anything in mind?

IRT Labat calling, Zhu's range is much less important than Manion's ramge.

I dunno. Any pocket pairs or suited one-gappers?

I mean, if you think Zhu is going to shove 25M into a 5M pot with ATs then it's what? Some sort of squeeze play? (Are those still a thing?) And if that's the case, why limit it to ATs?

You can dream up whatever range you want but it’s probablh more likely that zhu is Qq+, AKs than it is for him to have AT or worse.

It mostly boils down to - how likely is it for zhu to have AQ, and how likely is it for manion to have AK?

manion probably called too fast to have AK (implying KK is probably a small loser to overcall) but it’s way too close to call it a terrible call. If manion tank-calls (as he should have with aa for balance, though a lot of people don’t), an over call looks very reasonable imo.

Basically this.

Scenario 1:
Zhu: QQ+, AKs, AK
Manion: KK+, AKs

Labat chip EV goes from 51M to 45.6M

Scenario 2:
Zhu: (same as above)
Manion: (same as above, add AK)

Labat chip EV goes from 51M to 57.1M

So simply putting AK off in Manion's range makes it a +chip EV call. If not, it becomes -chip EV.

Look I'm an occasional amateur. But I thought the call was bad. Ignore the math of it.

Manion was just too fast with his decision to such a Zhu overbet. Especially with Labat still there with more chips than Zhu. On the bubble. That spot requires A LOT OF THOUGHT. But he didn't think. He didn't even blink. Put his tournament and missing final nine on the line basically automatically. THE TIGHTEST PLAYER AT THE TABLE DID THAT.

That's aces or kings. There is no other hand.

And EVEN IF LABAT IS WRONG what's the downside? He makes final nine, more likely to get promotional deals as he's a final nine for the rest of his life , and he's got lots of chips. But how often does a tight player NOT TAKE TIME TO THINK IN THAT SPOT. Who playing tight in Manion's spot playing tight suddenly calls all in there without thought without Aces or Kings?

I just don't think he emotionally showed anything different there. Tight players just don't at random in a high pressure spot go to looser than super tight WITH NO THOUGHT.

Sure, you may be correct if it was still 2008 when online poker was still a thing, and players got all patched up for the November Final Table, but today...not so much.

Could’ve been worse ones

I don't think you can win a main pot without winning any side pots you are also involved in.