even take out AQs of Zhu's range, QQ has 47-48% to (JJ+,AK),with already 8.5BB dead money in the pot,I dont understand why Manion should fold QQ here,unless there is extra EV in FT from out of table.

You guessed wrong. Do you even know how to do your own research?

http://www.wsop.com/pdfs/structuresh...1487_16465.pdf

How long does an OP have to be before anyone quoting it in its entirety get's covered in honey and tied to a tree in the woods?

I appreciate the effort you went to to post your analysis. Just a couple things, stop using $ to refer to tournament chips. And while Manion is the CL he is not the overwhelming CL:

112,775,000 (188 BBs) - Nicolas Manion
109,175,000 (182 BBs) - Michael Dyer

I definitely don't think it was an ICM punt by Zhu but I can get on board with saying Labat ICM punted that's for sure.

Add: I think Zhu shoving pre is a product of Manion being the opener and he knows he wont get 4 bet light at all so might as well shove KK and try to look weak. I would still just 3 bet to 6.5 milly and go from there but shoving is not that bad I dont think.

Labat just made it difficult on himself because of his flat pre which had he three bet I bet he folds to the 5 bet jam.

I'd hand out 24-hour bans to people that quote long posts rather than trim to just what's relevant, as I have done above.

Grunching; and didn't see the hand, only read about it when I woke up this morning.

It strikes me that Zhu's 3-bet size is enormous here. Is it really normal to shove >40BBs over a 2.5BB open? Especially with your entire 3-bet range?

Would Zhu have actually done this if had AA? Is it possible that both Labat and Manion discounted some of Zhu's strongest hands, especially AA, because of the raise size? How does the calculation differ if you take AA out of Zhu's range, or at least discount it?

lol, +1, my exact thoughts

I was thinking something similar (although I think I'd still fold).

How do we know Labat wasn't hoping to induce a squeeze play and got exactly what he was trying to set up?

Having said that, once Manion (who appeared to be playing tight) quickly pushes, I think I'd pucker up and save my 45+ Milly for another situation

problem with me is my tight ass will never be in this situation so wtf do I know?

Yep that mistake compounded and he owned himself. He deserved it for flatting kk pre.

There are lots of good points being made. I’m not the kind of guy to go through and answer them all though. All I wanted to add is that this spot is super sick and even if it is profitable to call with KK (which it isn’t), I’d say it’s not worth it if you do want to play for the title. In this close spot, if you think you have an edge at the table, I’d say you can play even tighter and wait for better spots that will surely come later on. If Labat folds here, I believe he is still comfortably third in chips. If he thinks that he is a good player with the ability to do damage with his stack, it is even more incentive to fold rather than take a super super marginal spot at best. At third in chips he is still seriously in contention. If he takes the marginal spot and wins (which is not a profitable play), he will obviously have a very large chip lead wth a great chance to win the Main. But even more likely is that he will end up getting crippled which is what just happened. It’s a sick spot, but KK is still a fold for me

QQ maybe not. AKs he is definitely folding. And as shown, even if Manion’s range is QQ+, this is still a spot where Labat’s Kings are burning money

Why would Labat think he has an edge on the table? It sounds like he's clearly less experienced than at least five other players out of the final ten.

Fair. Maybe that advice would serve Joe Cada better haha

Nice Job OP. If it's easy to do so, I would be interested in seeing how/if the calcs changes with Clayton's wider range assumptions.

So read through OP, just felt like there was a lot of needless graph posting and range analysis when what it comes down to is that villain is given a human estimated range of (KK, AA) when hero has KK. Yes, when you give villain that range obviously your KK isn't going to be profitable.

Mainly I just disagree with giving even a tight player that tight of a range. I think queens and AKs are shoves more often than not (and they should be), while there's also a small chance TT+, and AQs will get it in. Certainly its a lot more likely than "not a ****ing chance" that those hands will be in a shoving range. That said, sure its possible the player actually is that tight, and maybe because making the main event final table is an extraordinary poker circumstance it causes just normally tight players to become freakishly tight. But if that's your argument, you should probably just say it, graphs and calculators don't really seem to have much relevance then.

Still, it does seem crazy counter-intuitive that KK is even a fold if QQ+ is villain's shoving range. Its a neutral chip EV rakeless flip where blinds, antes, and player with weaker range shoving behind is just added value. I'm half surprised, half disbelieving that ICM considerations trump all that value.

Zhu play was fine, i feel bad for him.

Manion super lucky he won the 3 hands prior to the final bubble hand too.. even though go like MIN value on each of them, KK (3 bet and everyone folded), and 77 (raised a set on flop and chased others out) prior lulz.

Labat just needs to be a stronger player to make that fold is all. He was playing a bit lose earlier, winning with middling hands, outsmarted himself and fell in love with his hand. Hes good enough to make money on bluffs and 2nd pairs, but cant fold the KK... standard. ICM and Equities, he shoulda just bitched out and folded, but he wanted to be chip leader.

Guess this is why I have been accused of "playing like a girl" among other things. Folding KK in Labat's spot wouldn't have been easy for me. But I would have done it. Just folded AA on a 150BB all club flop shove in a tournament on Sunday, which I ended up shipping. Just sayin...

The only time it’s ever really correct to flat call with KK or AA is out of the BB when you’re going to be heads up with the initial raiser. Even then many players argue you should raise but I typically don’t want to lose my opponent in a heads up hand with pairs that big. I’m always prepared for the fact I could end up being outflopped but when you hit a set in that scenario you can win big

Folding monsters is NOT what defines a truly strong player.

I can see a case for folding here, but in spots like this with hindsight bias it's really easy to argue that someone should assume he's trapped in the most epic set-up hand in the history of the Main...

ZHU getting it in there is enough of a reason for Labat to fold. Labat has to struggle to give Zhu even AK there when Labat is holding 2 of the Kings, KK.
ZHU doesnt smash all in with even QQ there. ZHUs range is AA+, basically asleep at the table and had flatted AK 2 hands earlier, playing like 5% of hands or less.
This is also ignoring Manoin completely.

Anyone can call a stack off like Labat did. A stronger player can fold.

Believe me, you can pick any average fish from your local cash game (anywhere in the world) and they will be capable of folding monster hands with huge money on the line (most often absolutely incorrectly). It's actually far more rare to find a guy who can make a tough but correct call.

To range someone down to AA only when shoving 40BB over a raise and call is just utterly absurd. He'd have to have demonstrated visibly that he's scared out of his wits or just completely incompetent for that 'read' to have any credibility at all.

Forums are just absolutely schizophrenic and result-oriented when it comes to hands like this..

Whenever people get it in with their actual ranges you see threads like "How did they get all in with 'insert gunk hands'" and then whenever a cooler happens and people actually have monsters you have threads about how everyone should put people on AA and fold KK....

It's just absolutely mind-boggling, the extent to which people would prefer to lose by being too tight rather than too 'loose' (if that's the word for calling with KK after 40bb squeeze shove and 60bb isolation of that shove).

I think I just found my new band name

thank god I can just use common sense

This is the only sensible line of reasoning I could put on Labat's flat.

Problem is he got his LP raise but could not rationalize his hand was now no good.