Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
Except that his run may not be a statistical anomaly. That’s because when you look at a large population of players there must be someone who is the luckiest, and you can often expect that “outlier” to be off the charts.
In my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics - Expanded Edition there is a chapter on how to possibly identify a possible cheater in a situation like this. The book will be published in about a month, and for obvious reasons I don’t want to post the chapter here. But if a representative from the poker site wants to contact me directly, I’ll share the chapter with the poker site.
Mason
Yeah that's probably what's going on in the linked thread, just top ~0.1% runs from winning LAGs.
Clearly this player is awful and should be massively losing. Definitely losing over -40bb/100, and for that winrate I had to give them a 260 standard deviation just to make their cash game run one in a million. Most players will fall between 80-120, anyone higher than 150 is probably loosing at a lot more than 40bb/100.
Curious if anyone has data for win rates/stddev by player type? I'm guessing even very conservatively their run will be one in a number greater than the world population not even counting the tournament win.
Seems unlikely there's just one super user recently on GG and it happens to be this guy. I would say they're too bad at cheating to make someone at GG involved but clearly that's not true given the past with UltimateBet/POTRIPPER.
Last edited by TripleBerryJam; 12-29-2023 at 03:03 AM.