Quote:
Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b
https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
Im getting a 99.99% probability of loss over 15000 hand sample assuming a 50vpip that bet-calls off J hi w/no equity at -25bb/100 longterm which is probably way too generous
.01% chance to "win"
His winrate is 90bb
where is your math?
Okay, His win rate per 100 hands is 90bb.
Do you know what his standard deviation per 100 hands is? I bet you don't. Or did I miss something?
And then given that you know his standard deviation per 100 hands, what's the ratio of his win rate divided by that standard deviation? Then once you have this you can decide if this ratio looks (way) out of line (and in my book there are guidelines for this).
Also, just to point out, the best way that I know of to estimate his standard deviation per 100 hands is to compute the maximum likelihood estimator for the standard deviation, and to do this you would need to know his results for each session played and the number of hands he played in each session (and exactly how to do this is again given in my book).
It's a lot of calculations, but a poker site with lots of programmers should have no trouble answering these questions.
And there's your math.
MM