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Old 02-06-2020, 04:47 AM   #76
JohnCleese
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem View Post
That's not at all obvious. Firstly, they're going to have to define the market(s) and look at the resulting market shares of those markets at least.

I don't have any access to current UK market share figures, nor have I seen any discussed in this thread, but I'd put a rough line that the combined market share in the most-tightly-defined market - online sports betting - might be 25%? Maybe 30%? I don't know, I'm just guessing, but it's hardly going to create an 80%+ monopolist given how much bigger/more profitable Bet365 is (do you really think Bet365 is quivering in their boots over this merger? GTFO)

How would you define the market, and what combined market share do you think they'll have?
If we define the market as online sports betting in the uk then this merger will have about 60% of the market. Is this 80% thing still actually how they figure things out? I doubt that.

Bet365 have 25% of that pie and I reckon they might be quaking in their boots actually.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:54 AM   #77
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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Originally Posted by JohnCleese View Post
If we define the market as online sports betting in the uk then this merger will have about 60% of the market.
I imagine that the lawyers from Flutter and Stars will argue that the market should be defined more widely than that (sports betting and/or gambling generally). But let's assume that they do define the market so tightly for the purposes here.

I'm surprised to learn the combined brands would have 60% of the market. Do you have a public source for that?
Quote:
Is this 80% thing still actually how they figure things out? I doubt that.

Bet365 have 25% of that pie and I reckon they might be quaking in their boots actually.
I'd imagine that CMA are going to look for evidence that consumers have the potential to be harmed. Are Flutter/Stars going to be able to get away with offering noncompetitive odds? That seems like a difficult argument to make, but then again, they own price comparison sites like oddschecker, which might work in your favour.

If one of the alleged anti-competitive operators also owns the leading price comparison website, like they do here, then that seems like something that might count against them - especially since they appear to keep that ownership pretty secretive (eg, I see no mention of it on https://www.oddschecker.com/ )
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:25 AM   #78
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

I got my info from a recent article on silentbet who in turn got their info from the latest Gambling Compliance report. I was surprised to see PaddyPower having almost the same share as bet365.

https://silentbet.com/uk-online-bett...ry-statistics/

Considering Betfair have their exchange on the same site as their sportsbook then they're never going to offer odds with too much of an overround so will always stay competitive.

With 5 firms controlling 83% of the market I personally hope the cma do not green light this.

Last edited by JohnCleese; 02-06-2020 at 06:31 AM.
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:39 AM   #79
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnCleese View Post
With 5 firms controlling 83% of the market I personally hope the cma do not green light this.
am i stupid ... "UK Bookmakers by Market Share[s]" add up to 103%

Betfair & Paddypower = 42% (Flutter)
bet356 = 25%
Ladbrokes & Coral = 21% (GVC)
Skybet = TSG (15%)

Quote:
Unfortunately, there are no individual stats available for Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Coral following the mergers that took place a while ago.
but even if Betfair = Paddypower = 21%

why is Ladborkes 11% and Coral 10% and not Ladbrokes = Coral = 11% ?


Quote:
Taking the four sites named above (Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Coral) as just two bookies means that five firms control a whopping 83% of the UK market.
and the 1st graph shows 4 companies (bet365, paddypower, betfair & sky) add up to 87%

what 5 companies add up to 83%

am i missing the obvious or are there some mistakes in the article


edit:

maybe

bet356 = 25%
Betfair & Paddypower = 21% (Flutter)
Ladbrokes & Coral = 21% (GVC)
Skybet = TSG (15%)

that would be 4 companies adding up 82%
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Old 02-06-2020, 08:09 AM   #80
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Ye I think they made Ladbrokes and Coral share separate, as if 2 entities, but grouped BF and PP share without actually grouping them on their chart.

It's an affiliate site too, so it could be absolute mumbo jumbo.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:07 PM   #81
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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Originally Posted by JohnCleese View Post
Ye I think they made Ladbrokes and Coral share separate, as if 2 entities, but grouped BF and PP share without actually grouping them on their chart.

It's an affiliate site too, so it could be absolute mumbo jumbo.
Your right coral is a separate entity.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:16 PM   #82
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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Originally Posted by Richtofin View Post
Your right coral is a separate entity.
It wouldn't be treated as such if the cma were looking at any monopoly issues.
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:59 PM   #83
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

JohnCleese,

You make a much more compelling argument for CMA to take action (rather than just wave it through) than I expected. I'm still somewhat skeptical, but instead of thinking there was a <5% chance they'd take action, I now think there's a ~20% chance they'll do something here.
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Old 02-08-2020, 06:41 AM   #84
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Gossip: Grosvenor may get involved with this somehow and take skybet if cma turn this down. Told to me by a guy at a poker table.

More wishful thinking than anything with any factual merit I reckon.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:46 AM   #85
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Anyone think its possible that paddypower, and betfair will leave the ipoker skin now and migrate to pokerstars software, taking all customers with them? similar to what coral recently done with partypoker?
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:57 AM   #86
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Stars have already bought SkyBet and their poker arm. From what I gather, though nothing is set in stone yet and there are other possible outcomes, they intend to move all Sky players to Stars but keep Sky as a separate skin. I'd bet that the exact same thing will happen to PP and BF if this merger goes through.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:15 AM   #87
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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Originally Posted by JohnCleese View Post
Stars have already bought SkyBet and their poker arm. From what I gather, though nothing is set in stone yet and there are other possible outcomes, they intend to move all Sky players to Stars but keep Sky as a separate skin. I'd bet that the exact same thing will happen to PP and BF if this merger goes through.
I think this is very likely.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:20 AM   #88
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Wonder how would they will manage transferring sky players across to pokerstars, where someone has the same username, or if the sky customer already has a pokerstars account?
I know currently on partypoker you can play on a coral ID or party poker ID, depending on what client you launch.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:11 PM   #89
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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Originally Posted by pokerman1101 View Post
Anyone think its possible that paddypower, and betfair will leave the ipoker skin now and migrate to pokerstars software, taking all customers with them? similar to what coral recently done with partypoker?

Yes, it was basically stated as such, part of the justification of the deal.

However, it is a long time away. Consider, PS acquired Skybet what... 2 years ago? completed 18 months ago? Something like that. Sky Poker moving over to PS has been on the cards from the very start... yet it is still in the works (slated Q1 2020... but that clock is running down fast).

Ultimately it's a pretty low priority item for consolidation when you're looking at merging giant sports books with overlapping acquisition pipelines, US partnership deals, etc.... smallfry online poker in Europe isn't going to be must-do year 1 action item.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:13 PM   #90
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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Originally Posted by pokerman1101 View Post
Wonder how would they will manage transferring sky players across to pokerstars, where someone has the same username, or if the sky customer already has a pokerstars account?
I know currently on partypoker you can play on a coral ID or party poker ID, depending on what client you launch.

They made it work with Full Tilt, which had an order-of-magnitude (or two) number of players more than Sky Poker, so they have a process for this already in place.
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Old 02-12-2020, 12:46 PM   #91
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnCleese View Post
Stars have already bought SkyBet and their poker arm. From what I gather, though nothing is set in stone yet and there are other possible outcomes, they intend to move all Sky players to Stars but keep Sky as a separate skin. I'd bet that the exact same thing will happen to PP and BF if this merger goes through.
All your base are belong to us
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:56 AM   #92
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

UK merger authority has approved this: https://assets.publishing.service.go...31_---_web.pdf

They defined five markets:

Quote:
Originally Posted by CMA
The CMA has assessed the impact of the Merger in relation to the following
frames of reference:
The supply of online sportsbook betting services in the UK;
The supply of online poker services in the UK, a specialist subset of
gaming activities;
The supply of odds comparison services in the UK;
The supply of betting exchange data in the UK; and
The supply of matched betting services in the UK.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:16 AM   #93
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem View Post
UK merger authority has approved this: https://assets.publishing.service.go...31_---_web.pdf

They defined five markets:

Quote:
The supply of matched betting services in the UK.
Interesting that they consider this a market when every UK sportsbook tries to shut down anyone active in this market with zero action from the CMA.
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Old 08-27-2020, 05:44 AM   #94
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Flutter H1 2020

Some very interesting analysis from Poker Industry PRO editor Nick Jones (hood on 2+2) on Twitter this morning.

More rewards/generosity coming to PokerStars players soon?

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Old 08-27-2020, 06:15 AM   #95
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Apologies for the wall of Tweets this morning.

VIDEO: http://staticcontents.investis.com/m...ation-2020.mp4 [PokerStars -- 9:18-10:33 ° 33:32-35:36]

Both Nick and Alun are far more practiced and knowledgeable about covering the corporate/executive end than I am, so it's most informative to just paste their analysis.

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Old 08-27-2020, 07:37 AM   #96
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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Originally Posted by straddle_me View Post
As an American all that matters to me is will this increase the chances of online poker stars being available to us all.
Your best option is to move to a modern country.
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Old 08-27-2020, 11:32 AM   #97
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

what does this mean for a (non-american) stars reg?
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Old 08-27-2020, 11:51 AM   #98
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

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what does this mean for a (non-american) stars reg?
Pretty much nothing, but possibly some better rewards for grinders in the future.
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Old 08-27-2020, 03:24 PM   #99
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Sounds very positive to me. The poker industry is crying out for more investment and for me to get more than 1% rb
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Old 08-27-2020, 05:28 PM   #100
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Re: Stars Group to be bought by/merge with Flutter Entertainment (Paddy Power/Betfair)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slugant View Post
what does this mean for a (non-american) stars reg?
I'm unsure if anyone knows with any precision at this point. For all we know, it could just turn out that regs get 2000 StarsCoins instead of 1000 the next time they open a Chest. Or perhaps a bump-up in customer service avg. response time from 8 weeks to six?

It's hard to tell at this point, but I agree with _jimbo_ in that Flutter's communication along with Nick Jones' analysis is "positive," and that "the poker industry is crying out for more investment." It's interesting that Flutter is taking a "major shift in rhetoric" position (as Nick would put it) -- moving up to an industry standard Flutter perceives as being set by its competitors -- as opposed to insisting competitors move down to meet Flutter's/TSG's/PokerStars' own previous "poker investment" percentages.

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