I am even more bullish now of him winning the challenge, having coincidentally seen him on an episode of Poker Night In America that was shot in late 2022.
Episode is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdg_aEfTIOE
Not only does he have thin legs, he also has fairly average sized/thickness arms. So he is not a 300lb+ guy with thick forearms and big thighs who naturally has a lot of bulk that his frame carries, he is an average build person naturally, who has just piled on a lot of pounds in the middle part of his body. He might have a fairly stocky build in his chest, neck and shoulders,
but that's all.
Unless he is mentally weak, which I highly doubt given his enormous success in poker over many years, I think the real probability of him winning the challenge is around 75%.
And no I don't want to bet on him, I am just giving my opinion.