Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanGambler
Those 30% are wrong for Holdem. Even a fish will not play every hand. Depending on his VPIP it will take 500-2500 hands. And as we all know, it takes some time for 2500 hands in a live setup.
Standard deviation of 100BB/100 hands does not assume every hand is played, it's for an average player.
If they play more hands than the average their standard deviation will be higher, so you may well be right that they win more than 30% of the time.
There are another factor though - both for roulette and poker. If the player comes with 100 euros and plays 10 euro per spin roulette or NL100 (yes we have that live in Slovakia), then in both cases they might have an EV of minus 50 euros per 100 and an SD of 100 euros per hundred, but in both cases there is a higher chance of going bust and stopping before they complete the 100, losing the chance to catch up. The real gambler type just keeps going until he's bust, increasing stakes if he gets ahead, so I'm sceptical whether 30% of roulette sessions really end with the player walking away a winner.
Apart from the wide variety of stakes offered, the other advantage roulette has is the chance to be in action all the time, whereas FR NLHE if played reasonably correctly involves playing not more than about of fifth of all hands, so there is too much waiting around for others to finish hands. Solutions to this are to
a) play much shorter handed than now - maybe 4 handed even.
b) play fixed limit before the flop and no limit after, which would make it correct to see more flops.
c) accept that there is a certain type of player who is better served by casino games and is more or less unreachable for poker.