Quote:
Originally Posted by Hairy Chinese Kid
No, I think the odds of getting a royal flush in 7 cards is very roughly 30,000 to 1 (bit more I think but whatever). Clearly he is just running if anything a little bit on the good side of variance!
I read somewhere that its 500.000:1 ...
Let me check.
PS: Actually I was wrong:
"In hold em, the probability you hit a royal flush by the flop is the same as in draw poker. However, we can compute an upper bound for the probability that you hit a royal flush by the river. If we make the assumption that you will play any two suited cards 10+, and that you always see 5 board cards, then the probability is
4*C(5,2)/C(52,2)*C(47,2)/C(50,5) = 1/ 64,974 ~ 0.000015390
Or odds of 64,973:1
In practice, the probability you hit a royal flush is less than the number computed above since you will not always see the flop with any two suited cards 10+, and that you will not always see all 5 board cards."
If this is correct he should have 3 rather than 6 ...
The 640,973:1 is the prob of a royal e 5 card draw. hence my confusion ...
Last edited by ferdinand; 09-20-2011 at 09:06 AM.