I don't buy the argument that the fold is bad 'in the long run'. There is no long run, this is a unique Million Dollar tournament.

Don't bet your quad jacks into quintup queens!

Was watching the live stream when the commentators spoke of this. Said to myself that it was either the greatest lay-down in the history of poker, or the guy with quads was a complete moron. I will stand by that . . .

What kind of a statement is this?

"in the long run" does not necessarily mean what you think it means

The guy just pulled a Frankenberger

Get over it

I am pretty sure now that his range there is JJ or T9ss. Kings make little sense (almost no sense) and bluffs makes even less sense since shoving into third barrel on the river is suicidal for anyone with a little clue in poker. Everybody assuming that businessman who plays 1 mill tourney is the same donk who plays in your local 1/2 nhl game can't be more wrong. I am pretty sure that all of these guys are pretty solid players who are familliar with the world of high stakes and some poker theory basics. Moreover I am inclined to think that these guys gonna play more on a nit side in this format with tables full of pros.

Now having capped his range to JJ or T9ss it's still a wrong fold mathwise. But you have to be at the table to fully judge this. I know that "soulread" and "gutfeeling" is something 16-tabling online kids (like me, lol) value much less than math, but if you play by math than it's -ev even to play in this kind of tourney almost for everyone there. So give guy a credit for at least being able to think on that level.

Replacing Frankenberger's QQ fold preflop, and Nguyen's "You call and it's gonna be all over, baby" in the annals of poker lore, we now have the "88 Proof." The 88 Proof is a play that will forever be remembered as the day when the Russian Smirnov folds Quad 8's face up in response to the amateur's all-in shove on the river.

Songs will be sung, photoshops shall be created... History has been witnessed here today!

Hmm, all of a sudden I need a drink. Smirnov Ice for everyone.

Starting to wonder how many people posting in this thread actually play poker.

a) this player may not be a pro, but that doesn't mean he's an idiot.

b) even $5 players understand that you can't raise for value if no worse hand will call. Jamming a flush or even 7s full here is idiotic because there's no worse hand that will ever call. So Morgan is always calling (or possibly folding) with those hands here, never raising.

c) Smirnov overbet the river. Morgan isn't going to see that massive overbet and think "oh, what a great spot to bluff!" It's a polarized bet and since it's going to be the quasi-nuts a lot of the time, Morgan is only raising here if he has something resembling the nuts himself. Sure, a pro with a straight flush blocker or something might figure out she needs to turn her hand into a bluff to win here, and make a crazy but perhaps amazing shove, but there's no way this nitty amateur is doing that.

d) Basically the only hands I can see Morgan getting to the river with here and raising on the end are JJ or Ts9s. I'd think the chances he had anything else are almost zero. In a vacuum, JJ is 3 times more likely than Ts9s, just counting combos. But if you factor in preflop and flop play, Smirnov might have reasons to heavily discount the likelihood of JJ here.

e) Someone asked why Morgan would shove a straight flush on the end? Are you serious? If you don't shove a straight flush against that huge overbet on the river, you shouldn't be playing poker.

Also I think that even if there is 75% JJ, 20%T9ss and 5%KK calling off and exiting this kind of tourney every 5th time at this stage is still questionable, since always folding will always leave us with viable stack to proceed to play in the middle stage of the tourney.

And I think human nature would be to not show because you got owned so much. You think he wants to show how much of a nit he really is?

After the tournament Morgan really needs to tell everyone what he had there. I know it will taint the analysis with results oriented whatever, but we have to know!

I think the Russian watched casino royale one too many times but I am not playing tourneys for $1Mil so what do I know.

zero

I know what you're saying, but I still disagree.

He obviously forgot about the bad beat jackpot

Hate the fold.

I doubt the fold is nearly as bad as everyone thinks...I think the hero's read on what the villan is capable of is huge and also with the structure as is he can go with that read

lets make a poll:

a) JJ
b) T9s
c) none of the above

also I love that Morgan didn't show and I hope it remains a mystery...screw the commercial aspect of today's poker and go back to a quiet smile and rake the pot without gloating or revealing anything

If Morgan did not have the 9sTs then his river jam was the most legendary "accidentally turned a made hand into a bluff" ever.

That's not the type of insight that will get you the prize in life, son. You are missing the point, as are most. It is either a great lay down or not, but the argument stands on it's own without ever knowing the result of the other guy's hand. All decisions are based on current information available. End of story.

which is at 47k

No. Frankenberger had the odds to call even if the other guy had AA or KK, so it was 100% a bad fold.

This guy had to call 2.7m to win 4.7m pot. That means if he puts the guy on 10s9s 43% of the time, he has to fold.

Morgan OVERBET ALL-IN a guy who donk bet a scary flop, kept betting when the turn paired and OVERBET THE RIVER on a very scary board. No way anyone with only a flushdraw would overbet the river on a paired board, so Smirnov never had a flush there.

Not only that but JJ is only the 4th best hand, so Morgan had to be sure that Smirnov didn't have 10s9s, 88 and KK. He seemed confident for someone with the 4th nut... In fact, if he has JJ and gets called, he is losing a lot of time. What's calling him that he beats? Maybe J8 (unlikely preflop), 87 (close call or fold given the action) and 77(close call or fold given the action) and Smirnov never has K8 there.

Morgan could well have 10s9s 43% of the time.

^^so you are saying he hadT9s?

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