lol he seriously never has A-hi flush or KK here. how are they even in the pole?

I'm not good enough to ever fold quads under any circumstances. I am not suprised that many of you think you would make that fold. Hope you get the chance!

I once saw a women in a 2-4 limit game literally raise enough times to be all in when she had 60 bucks in front of her on the river with the ace high flush on a paired board. Her opponent obviously had quads.

I once saw a guy call on the river in a stud game when he couldn't beat the board that my brother had showing.

Be very careful with the word never in poker. KK and Ace high flush are in his range. Without question.

I think everyone who plays enough poker has had a chance to fold quads... The question is why would I????? Lol.

folding quads in plo is bad enough, in holdem it is just absurd. Scared money most likely

Scared money biggest reason for fold by far

Dude, JJ makes all the sense in the world as does straight flush. 3 combos of JJ 1 combo straight flush. This doesn't even account for all the other hands he could have and makes it an
easy call. If any other hands in his range, which I expect they are sometimes, most ridiculous fold ever. Galfond was trying to be nice

You should have helped and encouraged them to scrape together a million dollars and enter this tournament.

It's level 5 (? I think I heard that) of a long tournament in which the entrants can be assumed to have some basic poker competence.

The line makes the most sense with T9ss but that doesn't mean it's a fold for Smirnov, just that it's not "lol russia"

I don't mean to be offensive, but this analysis is just terrible. You realize that Morgan had about a dozen tournament cashes and almost $60k in winnings before the One Drop? Why is it so many people in this thread seem to think that Morgan just learned the rules of poker two days before playing this event. Sure, he's not a pro, but there's no reason to think he's incompetent either.

And when making his decision, Smirnov was clearly taking into account what he perceived to be Morgan's excitement upon seeing the turn card. Whether that matters to you, it certainly did to Smirnov. There's absolutely no reason for Morgan to get excited by the turn if he has KK, which is one reason Smirnov didn't consider that to likely be in Morgan's range. Morgan would need to be completely incompetent to shove a flush here, so there's really almost no way that's in his range either. His range is way, way narrower than you seem to think.

Well Mr. Columbo, just one more silly question. What is the EV of quad eights on this board?

Where did anyone say he would make that fold?

I would never fold but respect that fold actually.The only hand that makes sense for a decent player to have is the straight flush.
KK,JJ would reraise PF(especially against a loose players raise and a flat)
Ace high flush would not reraise allin river against an overbet(especially if he really was playing careful as stated)
77 - I guess possible, but there is at least a good chance he would raise flop and not raise river.

Listen, he's an amateur. Of course that doesn't mean for sure that he's incompetent, but it might. The turn was a spade and paired the board. He could have gotten excited about that turn card with the ace high flush or 77 or JJ. I agree, KK is not likely but is possible. If he was excited instantly on the turn there's another thing to consider. I've played well over 2 million hands online and a ton live and it would take me a few seconds to comprehend that I have a straight flush here.

Listen, maybe he had a straight flush. However, it's gotta be at least as likely that he has 77 or JJ. All that happened was that Smirnov bet three times. Almost everyone would push the river with JJ and I would say that most amateurs would get the money in with 77 as well.

My argument is that this is extremely clear that this is not a fold considering there is at least one hand that everyone can agree makes a ton of sense that Morgan can have that we beat. And there are three others that are possible with varying degrees of likelyhood.

To fold here is really absurd.

This and I will go one further. Assuming everyone agrees that JJ is in his range, then combination wise, it is 3-1 that he holds that vs. the SF. Not saying that this is the only thing to consider, but as long as there is one legitimate hand that Morgan can hold that isn't Ts9s, I don't think you can fold from an EV standpoint.

I got stacked with quad jacks in the same situation in a live cash game... Flopped quads, he turned the str8 flush, all the money went in on the river.

I don't believe any good player (not even great, just good) would reraise 77 on that river, and Morgan seems like a good player to me. Maybe I'm wrong, but he is not new to poker and is a smart guy, therefore not likely to be happy to hold the 7th nut on the turn (Ace high flush).

As for JJ, I guess it's a push on the river, but do you realize that if you are playing against a good player and you get called, you are beat probably more often than not? What hand calling you do you beat? J8? A good player doesn't call there with 77 or 87 does he? I don't think I would and I don't consider myself a great player. J8 would make me hesitate because I have a blocker, but maybe I would call Morgan's shove with it, depending of the read I have. Therefore I think a shove with JJ on that river only gets called for sure by the 3 hands that beat it.

In this case, even the 2nd nut didn't call the shove.

He probably didn't go that far in the reasonning though, but overbetting the pot with so much confidence after an opponent overbet the river, looks more like 10s9s than JJ. Just like flat calling preflop looks more like 10s9s than JJ.

I'm not saying he can't have JJ and you should fold quads there, just that the way he played the hand looks more like 10s9s than JJ.

I'm not sure who you think you're arguing with. If you go back over the thread, I don't think you'll find a single person who has said they would fold here, or that they think this is a good fold. The only point of contention is whether the fold is absolutely preposterously ridiculous, or only sorta kinda ridiculous.

I think Morgan's range is pretty much just JJ/Ts9s here, so I'm in the 'sorta kinda ridiculous' camp.

Yeah, given everything, it's not the worst fold I have seen, but I'm not folding there.

When you take the time to analyse, you realize that Morgan had to have 10s9s only 43% of the time for the call not to be profitable. As I'm close to 50-50 between JJ and 10s9s, I have to think that it's not as bad of a fold as it appears like.

If we assume he actually had the straight flush
1. do you think Ivey could ever fold quads there?
2. if he folds, does he show or does he just quietly slide his cards into the muck to never mention it again?

I very much doubt Ivey would ever fold here, but that's because everyone has seen Ivey overbet rivers with 9 high on tv, and I also think everyone would want to be able to tell the story to their friends "I outplayed Ivey!", so there's a far greater chance someone would think it's a good idea to bluff-raise him in this spot.

Stopped reading here. Read the OP again.

You do realize that a great player called for all of his chips on the river in the first level of this tourney with only a straight on a board that had three spades on it, right?

You're giving a push on the river way more credit than it needs. Way more.

You also realize that the player who made that push had the absolute stone cold nuts? I think you're kind of proving leolauzon's point.

All the combos of JJ aren't in his range. Some of the time he will raise JJ preflop (Smirnov thought more were eliminated there than is actually the case), some of the time he will raise JJ on the flop.

Smirnov thought JJ was less likely because he assumed the hand was raised preflop a lot, and I assume there's a level of read preflop ("there's a raise and a call I hold JJ, I call", is that the same kind of call as "there's a raise and a call I hold T9s, I call"? Doubt that.)

We can't discount JJ enough to make this a call.

If you go all Sklansky

One combination he will almost always play like that and always shove

Three combinations he will sometimes play like that and always shove

All other combinations extremely unlikely

No way it's 3 to 1.

Goodie is adding random hands in the range of Morgan that don't make sense because he likes to believe what he believes. Don't listen.

I am sad this hand is not up on YouTube

Surely someone had to have captured the live stream?