Yeah cause quads are so easily scared away... Jamming is so superior to Minr ainec

Except I wasn't doing that. Its a pure psychology question as to the chances that this fellow would move in with various hands. But if you make this assessment without keeping in mind the relative chances he could have been dealt that hand (three times as great for JJ vs t9) or the chnces he would have played his hand that way before the river (unlikely in the case of KK) than when it comes time to reach a conclusion as to the correct play, you will screw it up even if you are accurate in your psychological assessment.

Skimmed through all four pages and didn't see anything pertaining to this, but when I heard about this hand, this was the first thing that came to mind...

For this Russian guy to even fold quads, he would have had to have a plan at the river. I don't know the timing, but it just says "Smirnov bet 700k, which was more than the pot for 600k. Morgan thought briefly and shoved for 3.4M."

How many of us ponder that river bet, make the river bet, and internally go "raise me raise me raise me raise me raise me......" "all-in" "SNAPCALL!"

He had to have known something was up. The fact that he didn't snap knows it was in his head before the river...

I don't really get this talk about respect or disrespect

If after the tournament he decided to tell or not to tell what hand he had, how can it be respectful or disrespectful either way. If he tells what he had, he is just stating the fact, and it makes Smirnov's fold no more correct or incorrect

Given how unusual the hand was and how much fuss it created, him revealing his hand (if it was 77 or something) would not be done with the intention of needling or embarrassing his opponent

I dont know.

But putting your opponent on only one hand, T9spades in our case, is the wrong approach to poker IMO.

People do ******ed things with boats and nut flushes and stuff.

completely agree, spot on.

well yeah, probably it's the way it happened, why are you bringing this up?

before making the river bet, he probably thought something along the lines of "morgan probably has a full house, flush or straight flush here, I am gonna bet to get value from full houses and flushes; but if he raises, that narrows his range to straight flush and I will think about folding my quads"

however laughable many people can find this thinking, it's pretty clear the guy had a plan

It's more of a response to the people saying "zomg you have quads, call".

KsKx is possible. I don't think he had 109ss or he would of said after.

lol, Morgan just doesn't want to look stupid for making a shove, that's all there is to it. Thats why he says he made the right fold, its really simple psychology and very obvious, he convinced himself into playing that role, and prefers no one to find out how fishy his shove was, but in the end its Smirnov who is the biggest donk in the universe. He just played himself placing Morgan on T9s, probably because he was scared in such a huge event and maybe has no experience in tournaments, its just idiotic play, he starts playing soooo careful folding quads but then he is like oh **** it and shows with 99. Just typical inexperienced tournament play. Huge donk.

I have no idea what to think. Dude could just say "I didn't have the straight flush" and leave it at that, let people think he had JJ or KK or something that makes his shove a reasonable play.

He doesn't have to tell people he had the naked of ace of spades and went completely insane with his nut flush.

And if he had the straight flush he should just tell people that too.

Him being so coy about the whole thing leads me to believe he didn't have it, I think he'd say if he did.

ANd of course there'st he complication that he could also LIE about what he had.

yeah, if there were two Ks in the deck, then it would be definitely possible

Argument can be made on both sides but I am 100% sure that he would show T9s or at least make some crazy reaction, as played it just makes perfect sense to say to himself "oh ****, i can't believe i got away with this, i better rep them nuts now" and take that to his grave.

I agree. At first, I thought he might have had the straight flush. But I have concluded that he probably had the ace-high flush and didn't even consider he could be beat with the paired board. Well, he may have considered it, because they said he paused a second or two, but not long.

I would not have folded quads, though I would acknowledge the risk of calling.

off course, you think it over a bit, say fml a few times and eventually call.

It's in threads like these that I become really convinced that all this "range" stuff being bandied around is just a regret avoidance technique. If you convince yourself that math tells you to call, you make a crying call, and run into the nuts, you can at least reconcile yourself that the villain's range was wide, and that you just can't fold certain hands.

Sometimes the situation in poker is really simple. Sometimes the way the hand plays out, and with the players involved, the range can really be just one hand wide. The actual absolute value of your hand just doesn't matter, some villains play suboptimally enough to truly reduce their range to just one hand in certain situations, and river raise on a scary board is a classic one. Falling back on mythical range thinking when "NUTS!!!!!" is obvious to everyone is a leak in such cases.

Meh.. Feel stupid that I need to even say this, but his point is not valid only in this given situation. if you min-raise with stuff like this or similar to this, you are getting less value than trying to find the treshold where someone calls vs. slightly more and they will fold. If you min-raise as a default you are losing lots of value throughout your poker career.

This combined with 99 v AA AIPF combined with his cheery comments to Wise the previous night (Royal flush! 2-7!) instead of being mad he didn't get paid off w/SF v quads, have me now strongly leaning lol rooskie.

I never played much higher than 15-30 or $200 buyin tourneys, but most times when someone had quads/SF and got no action on river they showed their hand, obv this situ is far far different.

That said, agreed with poster who said it's kinda nice never knowing for sure, because the analysis is fun & enlightening.

True. Agreed sometimes it's as simple as one hand. Other times its as simple as a very few number of hands. I still fail to see how you can eliminate JJ...even smirnov conceded there was a legitimate chance. It's as simple as two hands here, not one.

I do think slowplayed then badly played AsAx hasn't been discussed enough as possible hand for Morgan.

General consensus seems to be that he would NOT have shown if he had 9Ts. So please no "I'm 100% sure" bs.

Good point, I know I've done this. "Oh well, he must be wide here. he just happened to have it this time" and reload with a smile on my face thinking it's just variance. When sometimes it's just me not thinking straight

anyone suggesting flushes and air are a possibility obv have no clue. JJ is possible so im not defending the fold in any way. i think its fairly close. and please people, gtfo with ur businessmen reads.

I really cant believe smirnov folded quads. I was at his table in the razz last year amd he called 2 bets cold with (xx)KK deep on day 2. Truly mind boggling thay hed fold quads