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Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro

01-24-2015 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFunBegins
Another rake is killing online poker thread which is just rubbish. The Rake in NOT killing online poker.

The real reason online poker is dying is because the skill gap between regs and fish is becoming narrower and narrower each day either because of programs like HM2 or Notecaddy or thru knowledge being given away thru various means, coaching training sites, poker forums, coaching etc.

If rake was the issue, then live games would not be beatable with a rake structure that is far worse than online.

If rake was the issue, softer sites like Bovada/888 would not have much higher winrates across the board with a higher rake structure than a site like Stars.

Sit any mid stakes break even reg with his knowledge set in today's games in the games that ran 6-7 years ago with today's rake structure and that break even reg would be a 6bb+/100 winner.

If I could wave a magic wand which would raise the rake by 20% and place me back 8 years in time and it would allow me to play in the era where Party Poker was King I would snap that in an instant even with the 20% rake increase and so would any other reg

You make some accurate observations that a few people miss.

Multitabling, tho it is not in any way wrong, also accentuates the skill gaps as one pro can spread his skill over many tables,, slicing and dicing fish as they show up.

Another problem is player pools that are simply too small or that block out areas that produce a higher ratio of fish.

However, rake matters and incentive programs do matter as well. Rake increases should be opposed vigorously and rewards programs encouraged. Props to players protesting the Stars rake increase in both words and actions; notice the increase was rescinded.

Many pros make modest livings and even an extra 3 dollars an hour means quite a bit. Also, higher rake sucks money out of the economy at a faster rate.

Seemingly little things often add up over time and can be significant.

Last edited by tuccotrading; 01-24-2015 at 09:49 AM.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-24-2015 , 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFunBegins
I know from reading your past posts that you have a "rake is killing the games mentality"

You quoted 2 arguments supporting why this is not the case and why such a small minuscule rake increase is not killing online poker and did nothing to contradict them or support evidence why the opposite (your view) is true.

No one is debating that if Pokerstars lowered the rake winrates would be higher and that it would go a long way to helping the longevity and sustainability of the games but that's not what this OP was about.

OP stated that rake is killing the games. Over the past 14 or so years that online poker has been around the rake increases have been minuscule and is not the reason that games are "unhealthy"

Several examples have been brought out to counter this argument and not one of them were addressed by you. If you want to have a discussion great, if you want to sidestep the issue you can always do that also.

I for one would welcome and gladly play in an online environment with a 25% rake increase over the current rates if the game quality was the same as it was in 2005, where the skill gap between reg vs reg and reg vs fish were much larger and programs like HM2/PT4 were not fully being utilized by the vast majority of regs and things like Notecaddy were not fully being utilized by regs which helped to widen the skill gap.

But back then, coaching sites were in there infancy, things like CR EV and notecaddy didn't exist. Poker Coaching was basically non-existent, there was no player segregation, the ratio of fish: regs was much better than it was today for several reasons, HM1 and PT were super simplistic programs compared to the versions run today. No sites allowed mass tabling. Party Poker was king and allowed 4 tables max unless you signed up and played on one of their skins and played on 2 accounts at once. Even PokerStars did not allow 24 tabling back then. Basically, nothing was done to help narrow the skill gap to the extent that is happening today.



Player segregation, coaching, advanced Hm2/PT4/Notecaddy/CREV, PokerStove tools, scandals scaring away fish, coaching sites, population explosions of forums, mass tabling regs such as this one are all contributing to the same thing:

The skill gap has been lowered considerably and edges are so much smaller,
that is the reason why poker is dying, not the rake
Wise words here, no one said it better than you did.
back when computers were running XP/2000, they weren't powerful enough to process multiple table so sites didn't allow more than say 10 at once for the sake of your computer overheating.
And as for the skill edge - you're better off playing live, the fish will always love to play live. Especially if there is an adjacent blackjack/roulette table. Yes, the BB per hour is considerably less but you have a higher edge despite the variance. Online is good for luck boxing donkaments and larger SNGs but that;s about it. Forget cash. Micro, A: either the rake is too high (at minors not as mid stakes or higher) to be profitable or B, earning $50 monthly might be someone's thing i.e. the Eastern Europeans someone here mentioned and C: It isn;t worth the time grinding for less than a semi-skilled worker can earn at a pen pushing job. Higher stakes: The knowledge is simply too good with the advent of technology and fast internet, all knowledge is freely out there that pros knew of 6-7+ years ago with all software available. last item I played a 42/$4 as a shot too see what it was like I left after about 2 hours. Everyone bumhunts and as soon as the guy leaves they all leave in seconds that the games only run for as long as the fish/rookies stay.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 05:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by frommagio
How do you define "effective rake?" Live rake is so much higher than online rake, so what are we talking about here? Are you trying to create a new metric by combining rake with opponent skill, or something similar?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doofus Krondelly
Read all the paragraphs of my post that you quoted, and you will see what effective rake means, and indeed its metric.
The term effective rake has been well defined for over a decade.

There are a bunch of cry babies who can't beat micro stakes because the rake is "too high". They have their own definition.

They are also waiting for the silver spaceships to pick them up.
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01-25-2015 , 06:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doofus Krondelly
Read all the paragraphs of my post that you quoted, and you will see what effective rake means, and indeed its metric.
I did. Unfortunately, there's nothing there that answers my question. Care to define it?

I'm not buying that this so-called "effective rake" is somehow higher when the actual rake is lower based on some incoherent forum post.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 07:28 AM
I'm assuming it relates to average pot size which is far greater in live poker ....ie if rake is 5% capped at $5 and a pot is $100 so rake is $5 then the effective rake is greater proportionally than if rake is 10% capped at $10 in a $300 pot.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by frommagio
I did. Unfortunately, there's nothing there that answers my question. Care to define it?

I'm not buying that this so-called "effective rake" is somehow higher when the actual rake is lower based on some incoherent forum post.
When looking at a poker game, and trying to work out if it's beatable, rake in bb/100 is all that matters sir; so all of these posts mentioning about live rake in an absolute sense are wrong.

Yeah, the casinos take lots of $$$ out of each pot, but you can also win lots of $$$ from a player with that same pot. $25NL and $50NL live would not be beatable with the rake structure as it is. $100NL would be tough to beat but may be possible, and obviously $200NL+ is comfortably beatable since only 2.5bb's or less are taken out of each pot, and the player field is so weak.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 03:02 PM
Play tournaments online and cash games live, that's how you adjust to the new online poker reality.

Playing small stakes online and trying to build a roll by chasing bonuses, vip levels and rakebacks haven't been profitable for a while now for your average small stakes grinder and we all know that so complaining and hoping sites will change their business plan is silly.

This isn't a rocket science, for your cash games fix hit your local casino and learn real poker.
For tournament practice, Stars have so much choice and huge fields which is absolutelly amazing, it wasn't like that in the 'golden age' of online poker of early 2000s and it's a crime not to participate.

Just stay away from cash games online and all is good, why is this so hard to understand for some?
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 03:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by frommagio
I did. Unfortunately, there's nothing there that answers my question. Care to define it?

I'm not buying that this so-called "effective rake" is somehow higher when the actual rake is lower based on some incoherent forum post.

I think the term generally means something like "the ratio of total money which is raked from a game to the total expected win for the most skilled player in that games player pool over a fixed number of hands". It would obv be better if it were adjusted for the average pot size somehow so it was directly comparable with normal rake, and maybe that is included idk.

It would be nice if someone could once and for all define the term precisely because it is a useful concept in some situations.
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01-25-2015 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjola
Play tournaments online and cash games live, that's how you adjust to the new online poker reality.

Playing small stakes online and trying to build a roll by chasing bonuses, vip levels and rakebacks haven't been profitable for a while now for your average small stakes grinder and we all know that so complaining and hoping sites will change their business plan is silly.

This isn't a rocket science, for your cash games fix hit your local casino and learn real poker.
For tournament practice, Stars have so much choice and huge fields which is absolutelly amazing, it wasn't like that in the 'golden age' of online poker of early 2000s and it's a crime not to participate.

Just stay away from cash games online and all is good, why is this so hard to understand for some?
Why are huge fields amazing?
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjola
Just stay away from cash games online and all is good, why is this so hard to understand for some?
Is this really true?
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 07:25 PM
you can play 50x the amount of hands online (4 tabling zoom anyone?) than live, letting you pay less rake a day live than online, while online is also harder.

so you have like 50 hands with high rake and high BB/100 live or thousands of small pots with a bit of rake in any of em.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 07:48 PM
cliffs : many regs refuse to update their skillset and look to blame anything but that refusal

games are fine, decent midstakes guys will still earn way above the average tax free

also thank god somebody finally made the point that when referring to winrate in bb/100 you also need rake in bb/100 to make any relevant distinction
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-25-2015 , 11:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Blonde
cliffs : many regs refuse to update their skillset and look to blame anything but that refusal

games are fine, decent midstakes guys will still earn way above the average tax free

also thank god somebody finally made the point that when referring to winrate in bb/100 you also need rake in bb/100 to make any relevant distinction
Whoop whoop, yay. :-D
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-26-2015 , 06:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doofus Krondelly
When looking at a poker game, and trying to work out if it's beatable, rake in bb/100 is all that matters sir; so all of these posts mentioning about live rake in an absolute sense are wrong.

Yeah, the casinos take lots of $$$ out of each pot, but you can also win lots of $$$ from a player with that same pot. $25NL and $50NL live would not be beatable with the rake structure as it is. $100NL would be tough to beat but may be possible, and obviously $200NL+ is comfortably beatable since only 2.5bb's or less are taken out of each pot, and the player field is so weak.
You're conflating several unrelated factors, and calling the resulting conglomeration "effective rake." It doesn't make sense.

Online games are generally tougher, and your win rate live would be higher (assuming you could adjust, which not everyone can). But that has nothing to do with rake - that's a matter of skill and game selection. Also, there's a lot more rake to overcome live.

LOL at the notion that online rake, which is miniscule compared to live, is a major issue. Online rake is cheap. Get your focus where it belongs - on building your skills.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-26-2015 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokybacon
Why are huge fields amazing?
It let's you practice the dynamics of big WSOP-like fields and when on a heater you can win 30K+ for 11 bucks investment for example.
Win-Win.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-26-2015 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by frommagio
You're conflating several unrelated factors, and calling the resulting conglomeration "effective rake." It doesn't make sense.

Online games are generally tougher, and your win rate live would be higher (assuming you could adjust, which not everyone can). But that has nothing to do with rake - that's a matter of skill and game selection. Also, there's a lot more rake to overcome live.

LOL at the notion that online rake, which is miniscule compared to live, is a major issue. Online rake is cheap. Get your focus where it belongs - on building your skills.
LOL.

Live rake is cheap as f*ck in bb/100 terms, particularly when the live games are so soft and play easier than online microstakes.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjola
Just stay away from cash games online and all is good, why is this so hard to understand for some?
I make money at cash games online as a USA player and I avoid donkaments like the plague. I do play live poker when I can but unfortunately I don't have casinos very close to me or enough home games to go around.

There are fish at all levels of play both online and live. Rake structure IS important at all levels, but it is not a deal breaker at all levels or places. Find the games where the rake is beatable and the fish play.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doofus Krondelly
LOL.

Live rake is cheap as f*ck in bb/100 terms, particularly when the live games are so soft and play easier than online microstakes.
LOL. Live game rake is capped at $4 or sometimes $5 a hand. What site charges that much?

Rake has NOTHING to due with the "softness" of the game. You are so confused.

Effective rake is very much dependent upon the stakes. Playing $1000 NL/PL or $30/$60 FL, effective rake is small. Playing $300 NL/PL, or $10/$20 FL, it is much higher.

Continuing onto micro stakes, the effective rake is so high, the game is virtually unbeatable. This is the nature of the beast. Accept it. Move up in stakes. Play better. Or find a new hobby.

Last edited by TheDarkElf; 01-27-2015 at 04:10 PM.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 04:00 PM
the lowest rake i pay is maxed at 3.75 euros online
4-5 euros is the norm on many sites

rake is due to softness. More small flop seen = more rake paid. limpers are rake creators.

if i play a limper i pay about 30bb/100

thats 30 euros each 100 hands of hu with 100 stacks
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ...|...
the lowest rake i pay is maxed at 3.75 euros online
4-5 euros is the norm on many sites

rake is due to softness. More small flop seen = more rake paid. limpers are rake creators.

if i play a limper i pay about 30bb/100

thats 30 euros each 100 hands of hu with 100 stacks
Maybe you are playing on the wrong site. AFAICS, PS rake is capped at €2.25 full ring (5+ players), and €0.50 HU.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by effectiverake
We needed a word for this definition and we choose "effective rake". The definition is much needed to sort out an age old conflict/ strategy leak from the players perspective. Effective rake we define by:
The term effective rake has been defined for over a decade, and has nothing to do with ROI.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjola
Play tournaments online and cash games live, that's how you adjust to the new online poker reality.

Playing small stakes online and trying to build a roll by chasing bonuses, vip levels and rakebacks haven't been profitable for a while now for your average small stakes grinder and we all know that so complaining and hoping sites will change their business plan is silly.

This isn't a rocket science, for your cash games fix hit your local casino and learn real poker.
For tournament practice, Stars have so much choice and huge fields which is absolutelly amazing, it wasn't like that in the 'golden age' of online poker of early 2000s and it's a crime not to participate.

Just stay away from cash games online and all is good, why is this so hard to understand for some?
Pretty well written. Overall good post.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by effectiverake
Now that we have brought forth a new definition captured under the phrase "effective rake" one can begin to ask "why isn't effective rake targeted equally by "rake %"

In other words why should mtts be more profitable than cash games (and/or in relation to live)? Why wouldn't the industry target effective rake? And why can't the players discuss a global rake standard in this sense?
Why don't you realize that no one cares to hear what you have to say regardless if you post it once or 100x from 100 different accounts?
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ...|...
the lowest rake i pay is maxed at 3.75 euros online
4-5 euros is the norm on many sites

rake is due to softness. More small flop seen = more rake paid. limpers are rake creators.

if i play a limper i pay about 30bb/100

thats 30 euros each 100 hands of hu with 100 stacks
Playing tons of small pots online is just soul destroying and you fall into a massive rake trap. But if you try pushing the action and stealing most of those small pots, players adjust and call you down lighter or 3bet more. You can't win whatever you do.
Rant: The decline of the western online poker pro Quote
01-27-2015 , 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by effectiverake
And why can't the players discuss a global rake standard in this sense?
Because it's probably waste of time.
Here's a question:
Why do you think Stars backpeddaled on their rake increase plan?
a) Forum outrage
b) Implied business loss
c) Actual business loss

My money is on c), as in, many regs withdrawing their rolls and moving on to other sites)

We all know that over the years the games got tougher and edges smaller to the point of many having a problem beating the rake but that's not Star's fault and it's naive to expect of them to take a paycut because of it lol it's not how any business works.
Raising the rake is a deal breaker for players just like lowering it is a deal breaker for owners of Stars.

It's up to us players to adjust to new developments in the games we play but that's ok, it's what we do, 'adjustment' is every good poker player's middle name no?
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