Quote:
Originally Posted by LT22
Less rake will not lead to an equal increase in your win rate. Less rake will saturate the games even more and you will spread the fish money amongst a few more people. More peanut butter, but more bread as well.
This is incorrect.
What's the average earn rate in poker?
It's a simple question. Poker is zero-sum. In poker it's 0. In raked online poker the average earn rate is -rake. If the rake is 10bb/100 then the average earn rate is -10bb/100. If the rake is 5bb/100 then the average earn rate is -5bb/100. Simple.
The average earn rate will increase if rake is reduced. That much is completely obvious. Of course this doesn't approach the abstract notion of 'your' earn rate. The only way 'your' earn rate would decrease is if your average table after any changes would become substantially tougher than it is today. The average earn rate will have increased so for 'your' earn rate to decrease, the tables you play on would have to become
vastly tougher. 5bb/100 isn't a lot relative to the rake, but relative to edges in poker it is enormous.
In today's games your typical table is 5 moderate to good regs and 1 softer spot. That spot might be weak reg or indeed a fish. Though of course fish today rarely means 40/5 gonna call it off with top pair. How exactly are these games going to become
vastly tougher? If indeed the sites are flooded with tons of bad regs, with lower rake you can actually afford to try to eek out an edge against them - it may even be comparable to playing against 4 good regs and 1 soft spot with high rake.
If the only way you can profit is by playing against huge fish then fortunately there's also this little tool known as table selection. You'll still be able to bum hunt as much as you want. Indeed there will be more competition as there will be more players - but there will be more fish as well. Their money will last longer due not only due to lower rake but instead of being attacked by 4-5 moderate to good regs there will be substantially more weak regs who will be much less efficient at taking the fish's money. And hey you know - that even sounds like more fun for the fish. Maybe they might actually decide to deposit a second or third time for once!
And re: the concept that the games would become super tight. Good regs adjust their tightness relative to the rake - even if without consciously doing so. Good regs will approach the optimal tightness over time. That optimal figure is a direct consequence of the rake: the lower the rake, the looser the optimal VPIP will be as you'll be able to squeeze edges out of hands and spots you previously could not due to the rake. And as for the bad regs. Who were the first regs to end up dropping out of the games as the games have become tougher? It was the 28/23/12 3-bet type guys - the 'action' regs. The nits and tags are the ones still around in today's games whereas lags have become an extremely rare sight.