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Rake pricing for a sustainable poker ecosystem Rake pricing for a sustainable poker ecosystem

12-07-2012 , 12:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LorenzoVMatterhorn
I think the rake charged atm is actually very reasonable. (for NLHE Cashgames atleast, not enough experience with other games) Imo they even should increase the rake in all matchups with a fish (full tables), but give the extra revenue back to the fish through all sort of bonuses, or use the extra revenue to attract extra fish. That way bad, breakeven, masstabling, shortstacking, bumhunting regs are punished, while fish and good regs are rewarded.

People dont seem to get that if you keep the sites profit constant, lowering rake will just transfer money from good regs, to bad, breakeven, masstabling, shortstacking, bumhunting regs. I don't think that would be good for poker.

fwiw at the moment the rake is far from too high. fe 2kNL 6max you pay only 0.45bb/100 after supernova rakeback, so all it takes is one 26/18 and you have a beatable game.
And at the micro's there's still plenty of fish and bad regs, so no troubles there. (cant imagine anyone putting in some real effort not crushing them if some SSNL reg can make 12bb/100 this way: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...cience-963018/)

Obv feel free to launch your own site with lower rake, if you think thats gonna work. It could be an interesting experiment, but I highly doubt it will work unless you're willing to drastically lower site profit.

Again the data suggest otherwise, unless you think the site should win money and not the players. The sites make more money than the players. About 3-5 times more than the best players at the low levels.

If you wire 100 at the bank and had to pay a 20-70% depending on how much you wire would you find that reasonable.

If you consider poker just gambling like roulette maybe so, but I think the game should be treated differently. I think there should be a 20% cap at low stakes and 10% at med stakes and 5% at nosebleeds.

Last edited by knircky; 12-07-2012 at 01:03 AM.
Rake pricing for a sustainable poker ecosystem Quote
12-07-2012 , 12:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubbleblower
In this interesting article I read the numbers from the sample were only from the last 3 year, so they represent 10% of the market instead of 12.5% (because FTP was gone half the time).
Meaning East Europeans made even more profit.

Knowing this we can make an assessment of how much the USA lost per year, which must have been ~960 million. This number is pretty reliable since the sample represents 10% of the population.

So we lost 960M from the USA plus another 170M from Italy, Spain and France.
We got back the East Europeans taking out hundreds of millions.
Only Russia, Bellarus and the Ukraine take out 354.4M per year.
Plus other countries like Poland and Rumania make a difference of > 1.8B per year!

Canada, the UK, Netherlands, Denmark, Switserland, Belgium, Norway, Australia, Austria and Sweden have to bring in the 1.8B extra per year.
Obviously that is not happening so the poker market is rapidly declining.

This is the single biggest problem on line poker is facing right now!
Surely my numbers won't be 100% correct (had to guesstimate rake and RB%), but the problem is clear nevertheless. This situation is very alarming.
The decline will go faster and faster, because it has a huge snowball effect.







* Come to think of it that number is not so reliable, because of all the phantom deposits. Also the sample represents 10% of the global market, but that percentage is probably higher for the USA market. So the real number must be lower, but no doubt it's still big.
It makes the hundreds of millions Eastern Europeans take out even more meaningfull and adds even more profit, since they were underrepresented in the sample.
If that was by 20% it adds another 25%, etc. They make somewhere between 600M and 1B.

Again this article is based upon the PTR data, which is useless.

Of course Russia is gonna lose less per hand since their players are poorer and will play lower stakes.

I don't get where u are coming up with your conclusion.

Stating that Russians are better players because their winrate is lower is illogical and wrong.

If you want to compare you need to compare on one level!
Rake pricing for a sustainable poker ecosystem Quote
12-07-2012 , 01:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samurai_tony

You can't impliment a complicated tax based system on cashouts, people will inevitably find a way around it or not cash out whilst they build a roll ( which you could do incredibly quickly without rake ), leaving a cashflow problem in the business.
Nothing complicated about it, there are a few simple ways to do it. None are complicated. Not more complicated than rake. In fact u could even do it with rake, by simply giving corresponding rakeback.
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12-07-2012 , 01:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubbleblower
To illustrate why this problem is much bigger as it seems:



So at the micro levels where most of the fish are they lose 10 bb/100 to rake and another 16.3 bb/100 to the mass tabling nits.

This is no joke, our fish lose at least 26.3 bb/100.

Their bankrolls buy them very little poker/fun anymore and all the more frustration.

This graph says it all. Like...wtf???

How can people be okay with this!?

And those of you who think fish at micros and low stakes are aware of how disproportionate the rake is...you're flat out wrong. I repeat: they're gamblers. They don't care about their expected value. They'll keep depositing at whatever level they can afford and they'll never move up in stakes from that level. That's what makes them fish! The players who are hurt by this are the "would-be regs" who, instead of building a bankroll and moving up stakes, quit the game altogether.
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12-07-2012 , 03:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knircky
Again this article is based upon the PTR data, which is useless.
Why don't you go troll somewhere else?
Everybody understands you can compare dollars to dollars, even you.


The numbers from PTR are indeed shocking if you analyse them closer.
They show at the microstakes these East Europeans are a much bigger problem than the rake being too high, which was already killing the microstakes. This is the final nail in the coffin.

The pokereconomy minus USA, France, Italy and Spain lost 3.6 billion extra in the last 2 years! The less fish remain the faster they will disappear. Soon you will be the next fish.
This can only be stopped if everybody understands the severity of the situation.
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12-07-2012 , 05:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohiopoker1978
I"m getting 80% rakeback at a site online that takes usa players and pays them within one day thru moneygram.

Also max rake is 3.50 a hand in a full game so at 80% rakeback comes out to about 80 some cents a hand.

I always put money on lowest raking sites in the world.. and everybody should do so who cares about rake cuz one will someday/ maybe take off.
80% rakeback deals, 100%+ kickback deals, 70%+ LIFETIME RAKE given to affiliates just for having a website with an advertising banner. This all shows how over-raked the games are compared to site expenses and that these deals are giving it back to the wrong people.
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12-07-2012 , 05:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingDutchman
Why don't you go troll somewhere else?
Everybody understands you can compare dollars to dollars, even you.


The numbers from PTR are indeed shocking if you analyse them closer.
They show at the microstakes these East Europeans are a much bigger problem than the rake being too high, which was already killing the microstakes. This is the final nail in the coffin.

The pokereconomy minus USA, France, Italy and Spain lost 3.6 billion extra in the last 2 years! The less fish remain the faster they will disappear. Soon you will be the next fish.
This can only be stopped if everybody understands the severity of the situation.
Then open a thread about it. The above are all very good reasons to lower rake for todays games.
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12-07-2012 , 06:06 AM
lets talk about { THE RAKE } ive been dealing cards for over 20 years and let me tell you the rake isnt going anyware soon!!!MOST average players dont even reconize the rake or how much it is if im dealing a nine handed game there is maybe 2 or 3 at the best dont even know what the drop is or how much it is >> SORRY but it is the truth!!!
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12-07-2012 , 06:28 AM
bigsid.. a lot of us are fully aware... but we just can't bear the thought of (if we play long enough) every dollar on the table eventually being sucked into that little slot.. so we pretend not to notice.
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12-07-2012 , 07:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsid
lets talk about { THE RAKE } ive been dealing cards for over 20 years and let me tell you the rake isnt going anyware soon!!!MOST average players dont even reconize the rake or how much it is if im dealing a nine handed game there is maybe 2 or 3 at the best dont even know what the drop is or how much it is >> SORRY but it is the truth!!!
From what I hear, live poker is still entertaing enough to attract recreational whales and still allows confusing variance and good winrates. Online is inevitably and rapidly developing into a far higher ratio of reg:rec game and more hands are played, this isn't going to change**.

As edges are miniscule compared to live, and far more hands are played by each player, these are very good reasons to have rake far lower online so as to allow confusing variance/heaters over larger samples to occur and encourage regs to continue playing each other for the edges, without which poker regresses into a pit game and loses huge market potential.

Bigsid, if regs are making up most of the hands played and nearlly all regs have HUD's, there is much more awareness of rake, winrate, EV ect. online. They will realise the games dead, and they will leave!

If online poker is going to survive in this form, sites need to know and adapt their prices for their customers, when they change from nearlly all whales to nearlly all multitabling, HUD using, coached, intelligent grinders, you can't take 50% of winnings off the table and expect the industry to grow.

**Online is naturally faster,higher skilled and more analytical than live so bad rec players get crushed, fed up and leave. Curbing multitabling and HUD's is unenforcable.
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12-07-2012 , 07:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POW
<snip>

**Online is naturally faster,higher skilled (debatable) and more analytical than live so ...
Speaking of analytical, I have a question. Why would any online player think they can beat even a tiny rake if they play a zillion hands?
How good do you have to be, compared to the competition, to do that?
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12-07-2012 , 08:26 AM
or how many 3rd party software tools you have to use? looking at stars not enforcing their ToS on any of the major software companies and the huge market that has grown around them i'd say: none of them is capable of beating any table at any stakes if it wasn't for those assistence programs.
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12-07-2012 , 09:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeschmoe
Speaking of analytical, I have a question. Why would any online player think they can beat even a tiny rake if they play a zillion hands?
How good do you have to be, compared to the competition, to do that?
Because poker itself has enormous variance that confuses even the most estute and seasoned players when edges are small. Without rake players would have a tough time telling if they are favourites over say 300k hands, with a comparatively small rake its still very difficult over this sample, however with rake as it stands between 6-12bb/100, its INCREDIBLY obvious over 300k hands whether you are beating the game+rake, a lot of players propping up the games are gonna quit over the next few years.

Quote:
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or how many 3rd party software tools you have to use? looking at stars not enforcing their ToS on any of the major software companies and the huge market that has grown around them i'd say: none of them is capable of beating any table at any stakes if it wasn't for those assistence programs.
Software sux for a few reasons**, but it's not going anywhere so we have to base our discussions around a future where online poker involves software.

** money spent on software is taken off the tables, makes multitabling poss = high reg ratio, negates to some extent the edge gained from observance, concentratioon and perception etc
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12-07-2012 , 09:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POW
Software sux for a few reasons**, but it's not going anywhere so we have to base our discussions around a future where online poker involves software.
it is going away. no site has ever released its full arsenal on cheats. once this has been done and fails we can start thinking further.
Rake pricing for a sustainable poker ecosystem Quote
12-07-2012 , 11:56 AM
how about this little gem:

Quote:
******************: What went into Table Scanner's development? How does it interact with the online poker sites?

Table Scanner: Table selection tools are fairly complex. We have to retrieve the table and player names from the poker client. Since poker sites don't make this information easily available, we have to reverse engineer the poker clients in order to retrieve it. Every poker room uses a different client, so we have to do this for every poker network we support. Sometimes even the skins of networks are built differently, so it's a very time-consuming process.

http://www.******************/article...rsoftware.html
Quote:
1.4. PokerStars, its group companies and its licensors are the sole holders of all rights in the Software and the Software's code, structure and organisation are protected by copyright, trade secrets, intellectual property and other rights. You may not within the limits prescribed by applicable laws:

(a) copy, distribute, publish, reverse engineer, decompile, disassemble, modify, or translate the Software or make any attempt to access the source code to create derivate works of the source code of the Software, or otherwise;

http://www.pokerstars.net/poker/room/terms/
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12-07-2012 , 11:59 AM
This thread ia about rake, and anything relating to rake.
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12-07-2012 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BluffingX
The most profitable type of player for a poker site is a Break Even Reg.

If every single player on pokerstars was a breakeven reg (before rake).. everyone would keep playing millions of hands, no one would withdraw and pokerstars would rake all the money.

A fish depositing does nothing to help a poker site.

Any money deposited by a fish gets lost almost instantly, and withdrawn by a winning reg. The poker site makes the bare minimum in rake from this transaction. There is only a small hope that the fish loses the money to a break even reg.. because he is the guy who can best turn that money into rake / profit for the poker site.

Spoiler:
Possible solutions:
- take money away from winning regs
- give money to slightly losing regs
(this would bring all players closer to breakeven)
- ignore complete fish, who don't care about any of this


If depositing fish don't matter, what do you think feeds the poker economy?

Fk the "slightly losing regs" If they can't make money at the game why should the site prop them up?

The sites need new deposits or they will implode. Winning regs aren't depositing. Breakeven regs aren't depositing. The deposits come from regfish and recreationals.

Depositing players should be a sites number 1 priority and treated like the VIPs that they are.
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12-07-2012 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POW
This thread ia about rake, and anything relating to rake.
so the posts fit in perfectly. let me post a thesis: one of the most important factors when it comes to rake is 3rd party software. quite a difference if you pay full rake or only a fraction of it, isn't it?
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12-07-2012 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mme
so the posts fit in perfectly. let me post a thesis: one of the most important factors when it comes to rake is 3rd party software. quite a difference if you pay full rake or only a fraction of it, isn't it?
What has 'enforcing rules on illegal software' got to do with 'rake pricing for a sustainable poker ecosystem'?
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12-07-2012 , 12:57 PM
Please POW.

Let's think out of the box and focus on the sustainability.
Rake is just one of the important factors.
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12-07-2012 , 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingDutchman
Please POW.

Let's think out of the box and focus on the sustainability.
Rake is just one of the important factors.
Please FlyingDutchman, let's think in the box which is entitled 'RAKE PRICING for a sustainable poker ecosytem' and we might actually get a thread about the affects of rake pricing on poker that isn't derailed by every post with self-serving ideas to make the game more profitable for themselves.

I suggest you start a thread entitled 'Ideas on how to sustain a poker ecosystem' and post there
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12-07-2012 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maton808
If depositing fish don't matter, what do you think feeds the poker economy?
Losing Regs / Breakeven Regs, I'm pretty sure I already said that.

Losing Regs deposit, slowly lose their money.. mostly to rake, watch some videos/work on their game then deposit again, and slowly lose their money again.

Breakeven Regs lose their money even slower and it all goes to rake.

On top of this Losing and Breakeven regs might tilt or take shots at different games, lose.. then think 'ah f-k' and redeposit again. So essentially they are also fish sometimes too. If they play like fish 17% of the time and play 6 hours per day, that's the same as a fish playing for 1 hour every day.

True fish lose their money very fast, often in less than 1 hour, mostly to winning regs (e.g. bumhunters who hunt the fish, or the best players who crush them faster than breakeven or losing regs can). Winning regs cash out the money, the money leaves the poker economy, the money is not raked. True fish also are much less likely to redeposit than breakeven or losing regs.

Raked money stays in the poker economy longer than money won by winning regs.. as sites will redistribute the raked money through bonuses or bring in additional money from new players via advertising.

Ps. I assume you were meaning "what do you think feeds the winning players?", in which case you are right.. fish feed winning players - but i'm not sure how you think feeding winning players helps the poker economy? winning players will not use or lose that money. That money is gone... unless wait, I know what your thinking... what If they move up to higher stakes and lose the money? Oh, you mean If they moved up and became losing/breakeven regs?

Last edited by BluffingX; 12-07-2012 at 02:14 PM.
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12-07-2012 , 01:49 PM
Pow you're really being ridiculous at this point.we all know what the title of this thread is,but bitching about game sustainability and only focusing on a small part of the problem,and a part of the problem you haven't given the sites any incentive to change is pointless.you've lied several times when trying to defend your viewpoints, and it is clear you have trouble even forming a logical consistent argument,honestly believe the sites goal shouod be to allow people to make a living,and you couldn't convince a fly to smell ****,let alone convince a business to just hand you money.

Self serving ideas to help themselves are what got the players in this mess to begin with,not that you'll ever realize that.

And bluffingx wow are you clueless.I agree that horrendous fish aren't that valuable if they rarely play and quickly stack off (and heads up tables are so incredibly dumb from the sites perspective-again something sites gave the regs that they shouldn't have) but break even trash and marginal losers get their money from somewhere.games also get built around bad players so sites should encourage them to play for often,instead of catering to winning regs who have to play anyway since they need to eat.

Last edited by borg23; 12-07-2012 at 02:03 PM.
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12-07-2012 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23
And bluffingx wow are you clueless.I agree that horrendous fish aren't that valuable if they rarely play and quickly stack off..
Haha, you say I'm clueless.. but you agree with me

Yes, fish play rarely and quickly stack off.. that is the definition of a fish.

I agree with you, sites should not cater to winning regs.. I'm saying they should cater to losing/breakeven regs, i.e. fish that play for a long time (if you want to still call them fish).
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12-07-2012 , 03:40 PM
Thoughts on something like this?

These are simple rules, which can be modified to produce optimal results.

Weekly Cash Bonus (Free Money!)

20% base rate
+3% per 5000 hands
+/-20% of % money lost/won

maximum : 80%
minimum : 0%


Results would look like this.


Player A: Fish
(rakeback = 43%)
Deposits $1000
Plays 5000 hands and loses (paid $400 in rake)
rakeback = 20% + 3% + 20% (money lost = 100%, 20% of 100% = 20%)
Monday, he receives $172 bonus cash
End Bankroll = $172


Player B: Losing Reg
(rakeback = 50%)
Deposits $1000
Plays 30000 hands and loses $600 (paid $2400 in rake)
rakeback = 20% + 18% + 12% (money lost = 60%, 20% of 60% = 12%)
Monday, he receives $1200 bonus cash
End Bankroll = $1600


Player C: Breakeven Reg
(rakeback = 38%)
Deposits $1000
Plays 30000 hands and loses $0 (paid $2400 in rake)
rakeback = 20% + 18% + 0% (money lost = 0%, 20% of 0% = 0%)
Monday, he receives $912 bonus cash
End Bankroll = $1912


Player D: Winning Reg
(rakeback = 18%)
Deposits $1000
Plays 30000 hands and wins $1000 (paid $2400 in rake)
rakeback = 20% + 18% - 20% (money won = 100%, 20% of 100% = 20%)
Monday, he receives $432 bonus cash
End Bankroll = $2432


Player E: Bum Hunter
(rakeback = 3%)
Deposits $1000
Plays 5000 hands and wins $1000 (paid $400 in rake)
rakeback = 20% + 3% - 20% (money won = 100%, 20% of 100% = 20%)
Monday, he receives $12 bonus cash
End Bankroll = $2012


So as you can see, the Bumhunter gets 3% rakeback (almost nothing) while fish and losing regs get the biggest bonuses. Obviously %s will need to be modified, but the basic idea is here to be improved upon.
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