In
this interesting article I read the numbers from the sample were only from the last 3 year, so they represent 10% of the market instead of 12.5% (because FTP was gone half the time).
Meaning East Europeans made even more profit.
Knowing this we can make an assessment of how much the USA lost per year, which must have been ~960 million. This number is pretty reliable since the sample represents 10% of the population.
So we lost 960M from the USA plus another 170M from Italy, Spain and France.
We got back the East Europeans taking out hundreds of millions.
Only Russia, Bellarus and the Ukraine take out 354.4M per year.
Plus other countries like Poland and Rumania make a difference of >
1.8B per year!
Canada, the UK, Netherlands, Denmark, Switserland, Belgium, Norway, Australia, Austria and Sweden have to bring in the 1.8B extra per year.
Obviously that is not happening so the poker market is rapidly declining.
This is the single biggest problem on line poker is facing right now!
Surely my numbers won't be 100% correct (had to guesstimate rake and RB%), but the problem is clear nevertheless. This situation is very alarming.
The decline will go faster and faster, because it has a huge snowball effect.
* Come to think of it that number is not so reliable, because of all the phantom deposits. Also the sample represents 10% of the global market, but that percentage is probably higher for the USA market. So the real number must be lower, but no doubt it's still big.
It makes the hundreds of millions Eastern Europeans take out even more meaningfull and adds even more profit, since they were underrepresented in the sample.
If that was by 20% it adds another 25%, etc. They make somewhere between 600M and 1B.