I'm often seeing this narrative expressed in content up to 1o years old.

A new player, or fairly new player like myself, wants to hear that poker is thriving and there is so much money to be made - that the dream is alive and kicking, and if one has sufficient faculties and puts in the required work then one has a genuine opportunity to make great money playing poker.


But all this "poker is dead" business is a real turn off. It makes me believe that the opportunity is gone and that I'm wasting my time and money by playing. If I am in any way representative of the average newcomer, then this very narrative is largely responsible for poker dying (if it is). As I said, I've seen this narrative expressed in content as old as 10 years. There are countless players who have made incredible amounts of money playing poker over the last 10 years, which renders this narrative false and apparently serves only to put off new players entering the field. Which means less fish, obviously.


I want to see more content claiming that poker is alive, well, and the dream is still very achievable. I want everybody saying this. A direct effect of this new narrative may be that poker thrives. We (new players) want to hear this, otherwise we won't play.

Keep claiming that poker is dead, well then I'll stop playing because the dream is dead. And the dream is the only thing that drives me and the other fish to open up that software and start clicking buttons.

You need to look beyond the whining of others, and instead recognize that as an opportunity. The harder part is figuring out the best way to act on that opportunity.

You also should be honest about what you want poker to be for yourself. One of the first questions I ask any player looking for backing is what do they want to do with poker. Not all want to play full time 80 hours a week, some want it as a secondary form of spending money. Some enjoy the game itself and want to learn more aspects to it, without the earnings being that important to their day to day lives. Some want it as a primary income.

People whine all the time, and in this industry there are forums dedicated to it. Treat it as noise, but also understand what that amount of volume of noise can represent, rather than be distracted by the words within the noise.

the dream is not what keeps people playing though... People (maybe not you) play because they want to, a lot of people play knowing they're losing or need to get lucky to win etc

people just like to play.

Regarding the rest of your post, people have been saying poker is dead for years, yet some people still make it happen, I guess it depends on a lot of things, how hard you wanna work, where you are located, what other opportunities are etc etc.

Having said all that, being discouraged from doing something because a bunch of randoms say things on the internet is a bit concerning.

But pokers still dead right?

At the start of the boom, a player with a modicum of skill and discipline could make a lot of money at whatever stakes their bankroll could handle. This is because almost every seat was filled with players who were new and green. This period was from c. 2005 to 2009.

There was then a time where players could invest a relatively modest amount of time in skilling up, and choose a sufficiently low stakes and large number of tables that the effect of variance was low.

Of course as many thousands of skilled players did the same thing the level of skill required increased, so lots of players were forced to get better, stop playing, take more variance risk (i.e. higher stakes) or be more selective about games.

We are now in the fourth era, where skilled players can make a profit but must accept a lot of variance. Small-roll low-variance play will not deliver a viable income anywhere except the most low cost-of-living places, and as poker has "boomed" in these places (LATAM, CIS) there are many players playing at a good skill level with a very low hourly that makes life harder for the the European, Canadian, etc players.

The "poker is dead" narrative is almost exclusively from players who fall into one or more of the below categories:
- failed to adapt to the above transitions
- believe that playing well is enough to be a winning player
- believe a return to the past status is possible
- believe the above transitions are due to operator actions and not due to massively changing skill demographics

Right now, it is much much harder (maybe 30x harder) for a player to earn a dollar predictably and consistently playing online poker than it was 10 years ago. So to those who aspire to make that dollar but cannot, it feels "dead".

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If you would like an analogy, look at ebay. It used to be easy to buy stock, sell on ebay, make a significant profit, make a living. Despite ebay and paypal eating close to 15%.

Now due to a massive proliferation of sellers who run at small margins and better options for buyers (Amazon, etc) there are a bazillion sellers complaining that "ebay is dead" because they cannot make a profit. Naturally some see the problem as the ebay fees, as without them the margins would be a lot better. Some see it as less buyers, but actually buyer numbers on ebay are relatively strong. There are just a LOT of low-margin sellers in every category.

Of course, like poker, these sellers (winning) also think that they are the ones paying the fees each month so they are the ones who should be catered to. Thankfully ebay recognises that the money everyone actually makes is actually brought into ebay by the buyers (losing players), and the buyers needs being met is what makes ebay - and the sellers - have any business at all (hence the escalation of buyer protections and whittling away of seller protections over the last decade). The sellers say that ebay couldn't exist without them, but the reality is that because the market is so liquid that a big seller departing would not even be noticed by the site, as the buyers dictate the size of ebay. More buyers = more money for everyone. More sellers = nothing happens except margins (winrates) get smaller and the ones forced out say "ebay is dead".

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There are some companies trying to bring new people to poker (PS, Zynga) there are some trying to support the dream of the professional and aspiring serious poker player (PP, RIO) and there are some trying to creatively innovate the game to a different audience (PS, Global). None of these companies have it easy, for different reasons, but some / all are easy targets because every time a staff member or shareholder gets paid a dollar, it's a dollar that a winner cannot win.

very well stated

for reference, i made several thousand without ever depositing while working in my office

there was a lot of down time, some people played minesweeper, i played online poker

no hud, no notes, no thought at all, regularly had to just sit out a hand, walk away from my desk, etc - this was major reason why i never considered depositing or playing high stakes, it was originally just something to pass downtime - i'd previously been a live pro, but i never treated this as a source of income, more just a challenge

there were countless times when I couldn't play the sng or mtt i regged to so just started shoving all in for the lols hoping to build up enough of a stack to then min cash by sitting out

Today if i give full concentration I'm a slightly profitable player in the micros. About 2 years ago I decided to really focus on playing online for real. Installed a hud, did hand reviews, etc. I was profitable, but after 3 months, I concluded that I could only reasonably expect an income of about 2k a month barring a massive improvement or serious bankroll injection to play higher stakes. So basically, working my ass off every day makes me less than working at Walmart.

Given my real world job opportunities available, this was not a desirable choice so I set aside poker once again, knowing I still had the chops but not enough chops to live comfortably.

I've often debated seeking staking, not for the financial backing so much as the guidance and coaching it would give me. I don't play enough volume at high enough levels to justify coaching or training sites, but if I got staked then they would both want to give hand review feedback and send me training materials. Likewise, with it no longer being hobbyist money but somoene else's I'd have a real incentive to then put in the time to put that all to good use.

10+ years ago I'd show up to Macau and sit down at the table and just wait until someone got bored and started shoving blind every hand. It was basically all mainland Chinese who normally do nosebleed baccarat and this was just them playing around with fun money. Last time I went to Macau, the tables were 7-8 pros and 2-3 decently skilled amateurs. A number of people I sat down with were guys I recognized from watching on tv.

Macau used to be my ATM, I'd literally arrange any travel anywhere near that region to go through it so I could pop in, play a session or two, make a few buyins profit then go back to the airport and resume my flight to the original intended destination.

The game used to be absurdly easy for anyone who knew what they are doing. That's no longer the case. For some real perspective, check out the OTBtheredbaron thread, in the early parts he does a lot of reg trashing. It seemed a little silly and cocky for him to say such and such was a bad player given they were OGs of those stakes, and yet, a look at HSDB indeed showed most haven't been winning players since black friday and ODB was indeed beating them handedly.

Those guys who were end bosses 10 years earlier are now the fish. When that happens to you, that's a terrifying thing that fills you with deep pain. It's a huge existential crisis, and why there's so much "poker is dead/god is dead" Nietzchean stuff found in the forum

hmm interesting post. Though not clear if you are talking live or online as those answers are different.

Regarding online... "poker is dead" (though a bit if hyperbolic statement) is not a narrative its just a fact. Many jobs / professions come and go based on economics. Textile workers used to be a booming part of the workforce here in the Carolinas. not so much anymore. Trying to bring it back with positive thoughts/narratives aint bringing it back.

Could one start fresh and succeed in todays environment, for sure. However, if one had the intelligence, discipline and put forth the massive amount of effort, that same person could pursue SO many other endeavors that would be more profitable and likely much more rewarding from quality of life perspective.

IF you are talking live, then not much has changed over the years and certainly easier than making a go of it in online arena. Best practices there are still the same, do it part time until 6-12 month results support your lifestyle. Avoid casino life leaks and get coaching.

Again, there could be mountains of content claiming its easy to become scratch golfer, but that will never make it true, nor will it make more people take up the game., as they will quickly learn thats its not, and they were fooled by the content.

people who are finding poker is alive and good are typically too busy, too rich and dont have an agenda that sharing this information is good for
go to see stables, poker staking, poker action and buying markets, the wsop, live poker and any other region where people are showing each other through unconscious patterns of behaviour what they think

dont listen to what people say, look at their actions.

Poker is ALIVE and THRIVING
MTTs are the best they have been in years

Welcome to Poker, Asia.

This right here... bear in mind that this was considered high end, top level tournament play back then. These were people who traveled from far off and invested lots of money to play and got TV coverage doing it.

As bad as Negreneau is, he's still leaps and bounds better than them just by using basic poker sense that wouldn't even make you a profitable player at NL2 today.

I like to regularly watch old time poker videos as a reminder to stay humble. I wasn't a world beater, I was just a one eyed man amongst the blind.

At the Chicago Horseshoe I've been shocked to see how many new players in the last three months. No, to me, poker isn't dying at all.

cash games are kind of dying, MTTs are thriving

Spent the last few months playing 2-5 and some 5-10 cash games and some tournaments in New England, and June playing tournaments in Las Vegas. It really seems like there is a live poker boom going on. MTT fields often are bigger than expected, and very often the games, MTT and cash, have some players that are very unfamiliar with poker strategy.

In about 2010 poker died as a get rich quick play for smart people in expensive cities with good alternative prospects.

If not all those criteria apply, e.g. for a very small hourly for a cheap location with very limited alternatives, it may not be 'dead', its just pining.

It seems that some of you haven't grasped my point, but great posts nonetheless.

I play online NHLE Mtt's, but that is irrelevant to my point, as is the actual state of poker. But very interesting posts.


The national lottery tells me that I could be a millionaire this weekend if I just buy a ticket. It's true. They don't go on about how unlikely it is or how the odds used to be so much better under the old format so now it's dead. If they did, I wouldn't play it. (For reference, I don't play it but you have to read between the lines)

ahhh I get it now.

now you're talking about how to market a product or service. Lottery was great example.

The sites are certainly doing that. Players have no reasonable path to do that.

The sites are marketing (ala building a narrative), but are building a customer base and business model in-congruent with making a profession out of online poker.

Why? They like money as much or more than you.

What you describe is sort of what Galfond tried which hasn't worked well, and will likely just end up as footnote in his life ( though I am sure an exciting and educational one

Players market the game through videos, podcasts, forum posts, etc. I will pay no attention to the sites marketing but I will listen very carefully to what Jason Koon has to say about the state of online poker and the poker dream. By downplaying the possibility of poker success we are putting people off playing, and contributing to the death of poker.

I sound assertive, but I really don’t know how valid my point is. All I know is that this narrative, or apparent statement of facts, is enough to put me off having a really serious go at the game. Try preaching that riches are there to be taken, then I and a vast amount of others may give it a good go. And if we do, the dream will be truly alive

your point is quite valid and has been expressed in other times and other ways ever since Baazov destroyed what Isai had built (from players perspective)

The problem is that even if every single poker twicth streamer and poker youtube channel, live stream, training site, and poker show bought into your version, their collective efforts/resources would be a drop in the bucket to what the sites do.

Sites are going to create the narrative and do it in a way that maximizes their profit, thus to some degree killing the dream.

It's kind of like professional MMA, fields used to be soft, lots of leaks, easy to beat opponents if you knew what you were doing. Now, you need to be champion level or you're not going anywhere. The edges just got smaller and smaller as the competition ramped up as people realized they could make money but now edges are much leaner. In both fields you can make better money elsewhere (especially after the Reebok deal which is the equivalent of getting screwed out of your Stars VIP system), so you either like competing or you probably won't go very far in that field.

In both cases there is an easier life.

It's in a slump.

Personally, I don't think poker is dead. I started playing again last June 20, 2019 (I used to be a 24 tabling 100NL FR reg in PokerStars 2010ish-2014) and I started at 5NL. I climbed the ladder and right now I'm mixing 25/50NL and I can easily run 6-8 tables with at least 1 rec per table. That really surprised me to be honest because while I was away from the games, all I read/heard is the "poker is dead" narrative. So being able to run 6-8 tables consistently says a lot about the current state of the game in my opinion.

I'm speaking for 50NL ACR only since that is the highest stake I'm currently playing on. I also played up to 10NL at 888 and it's very easy to table select up to 6 tables there as well.

Don't let the negativity affect you. If you like the game, just keep playing and work hard on improving. I'm sure you can still profit.

In case you care OP, I documented my "comeback" in the PGC section.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...g-5nl-1746938/

I agree 100%.
So you’re basically asking people to lie to you and others instead of suggesting that you use your time and resources in a more meaningful way that might actually be beneficial to society?

Should we also encourage 13 year olds to drop out of school and play 12 hours of Fortnite a day to become a pro gamer?

No, I’m asking for people to stop comparing the past with the present. It is possible to make money playing poker. It’s not a lie. I’m not interested in knowing how difficult that is relative to 10 years ago.

I have no idea what you’re talking about in your second paragraph

Thanks, I do care. Great to see you setting out with goals and rules instead of going at it blind. There may be a lot to be said about that

poker is never going to be dead at low stakes guys, online poker is dying at 5/10 and up, anything below is still quite healthy

That’s the spirit. Let’s also talk mtt’s