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11-19-2010 , 03:14 PM
300K hands is very significant, and those results shouldn't be dismissed. Are you guys aware of what monte carlo is? You know on PokerStove where you can select "enumerate" and "monte carlo"? To basically sum up what this method involves, it involves taking a statistically significant number of RANDOM samples in order to find an answer. So in PokerStove, when we use this method to calculate equity, the percentages will fluctuate as the equity percentage becomes closer to "true". It's safe to assume that these accounts are losing money over the time that was sampled. (if the players happen to play a lot of mixed games or something, maybe different story, but I don't think that's the case, either way, I think most people know them as NLHE/PLO coaches and so those are the results that matter)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_carlo_method
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11-19-2010 , 03:25 PM
I think the only way we can know how accurate ptr actually are is if players come forward with their actual wins/losses. I mean isnt it easy to make an opinion if you wanna trust the numbers or not? Just search your own sn. For me it has my winnings as three times higher than reality. I play low limits but still, until better proof I just dont think "it misses both winnings and losses so its sort of accurate" is a good argument.
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11-19-2010 , 03:53 PM
Yes look at all them losing coaches.

You really don't think they chip dumped to get more action ^ ^

They are about as accurate as a one eyed,one legged man playing Darts
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11-19-2010 , 04:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CardsNbooze
To be clear, I didn't make my OP with any ill intent. I understand that a winning player can grind out $500k over a year or two and then lose it all and more taking shots at high stakes in a month which would skew his results at first glance. But is that someone you want to be taking advice from? Someone who works his ass off for a few years to go give it all back in a few bad sessions? If I were to spend the money on a coach I would try and find someone who could follow their own advice on BR management. Taking shots is part of the maturing process in poker, but when it doesn't work out you're supposed to move back down and continue the grind.
So you would rather take coaching from leatherass than Isildur1 or durrrr? I'm pretty sure durrrr risked with his bankroll also when he tried to break into nosebleed games, he just ran well and got rolled in the process.
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11-19-2010 , 04:03 PM
PTR is quite accurate these days.

Some of these guys made money a few years ago when PTR used to miss lots of hands.

Also nowadays they are likely to just play on other accounts.

Nevertheless, the players that were crushers in 2007 are not the same as the crushers in 2010, that should be pretty obvious even without PTR graphs.
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11-19-2010 , 04:20 PM
^

Well I can think of one...
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11-19-2010 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by $upermad4it
Dont see this discussed anywhere. Been discussed before, but PTR has done some work on it too:

http://www.pokertableratings.com/coaches?source=email
"Here's a list of some of the most popular coaches on the major poker training sites."

and yet, no CardRunners listed, lmao
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11-19-2010 , 05:20 PM
cr hasnt paid for advertising obv
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11-19-2010 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enervate
cr hasnt paid for advertising obv
by the looks of that list, neither has DC
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11-19-2010 , 05:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bohdi
This is truth.

[X] Uncovers Russian bot ring before Stars did
[X] Uncovers DON cheating ring
[X] Broke Stoxtrader (Nick Grudzien) collusion with LittleZen and forced Stars to ban them
[X] Shows that BreathWeapon was a losing player at a few microstakes hands. He was not the winning coached that he claimed to be in order to scam 2+2'ers.
[X] Helps to ban Furbean (a Stars Supernova Elite) and fua_ for massive collusion.
[X] Shows that UB and Cake did not use SSL encryption and was hackeable.

These are some things you can thank PTR for
Also, FWIW, when Dameon Peters, PTR's founder, first approached Stars and FTP about developing the service, they gave him their approval. It was only after people started getting upset about it that they flip-flopped and made it against their TOCs.1

1. At least that's what I've heard
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11-19-2010 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainHook
Can we please get rid of ptr already that site is definitely going to kill poker if it hasnt already
would be so nice
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11-19-2010 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by benjamin barker
PTR is quite accurate these days.

No it's not . I can only speak for myself but according to PTR i lost 3 k in the last couple month . Wish that was true ... lol .
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11-19-2010 , 06:05 PM
The people who are saying 'yeah but they won before PTR' are clueless imo. GL with a coach in the end of 2010 who won in 2006. Totally different games.
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11-19-2010 , 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DiggertheDog
How about this you play 5/10 plo+ for 50k of hands and not lose 100k or more then judge how good some of these guys are?
ty digger... not to mention there are regs/pros at 5/10+ who would be losing players if they used the same 'game selection' as myself and the other guys

on another note, there is a banner ad at the top of the page reading 'u are the 100,000th visitor blahblah' and its blinking rapidly... W T F at this thing, incredibly annoying
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11-19-2010 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mnutcyv
the PTR coverage of the 100/200+ games is definitely higher than the coverage of lower which is why all the large losses are caught but not all the long-term winnings at lower stakes

not rocket science
its a decent point, but naw this isnt it... ptr has a lot of hands on me and most of them arent 100200+
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11-19-2010 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by benjamin barker
PTR is quite accurate these days.

Some of these guys made money a few years ago when PTR used to miss lots of hands.

Also nowadays they are likely to just play on other accounts.

Nevertheless, the players that were crushers in 2007 are not the same as the crushers in 2010, that should be pretty obvious even without PTR graphs.
This is just not true. PTR tracks run it twice hands incorrectly. Im not sure exactly what it does (it either imports only the first run or not at all) but since run it twice was introduced results are extremely off.
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11-19-2010 , 06:57 PM
Whitelime posted a graph on DeucesCracked somewhere in april-july (don't remember exactely when).




It shows all his PLO hands.

Last edited by BoterSmoter; 11-19-2010 at 07:04 PM.
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11-19-2010 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoterSmoter
Whitelime posted a graph on DeucesCracked somewhere in april-july (don't remember exactely when).




It shows all his PLO hands.
Damn. Sucks for anyone who bought coaching between 40 and 55 k hands.
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11-19-2010 , 07:49 PM
Hi everyone,

PTR misses run it twice hands completely, I am pretty sure, and considering I run it twice on probably like 90%+ of my all in hands on FTP I think that would account for some inaccuracies.

Some facts about my results/PTR.

1. I am a loser in the last 18 months or so playing HU NL. This is exaggerated by PTR, the number is far less than they tell, but I am down somewhere around 20-30 buy ins playing about 50k hands of HU, 90% of which was versus very good players (many of whom are the "best" in the world at it). For most of 07-08 I made my living playing against everyone HU, and at a certain point people started getting insanely good and I probably lagged behind a bit too much to keep up with the junglemans, urnotindanger, etc. I almost never play HU nl anymore though, I play almost exclusively PLO now, 6m and HU.

2. In some very small samples, I am down huge at nosebleeds. In most of these games I was selling a large % of my action (and yes, I took pieces of other people in other games, who sometimes won and sometimes lost). This makes my ptr look pretty bad.

3. I have a positive win rate (not a great one) over a huge sample, including probably 100k hands of 6m and HU games in extremely tough lineups. I am not claiming this makes me great, or even that it makes me any better or more qualified than a bumhunter who has a much higher win rate, just to note it as it has its reasons.

4. High stakes poker is REALLY HARD! I don't expect most really good high stakes players to have nutsinho graphs that just go straight up, the ones that do are ****ing sick, or have run great! Those that have the shaky ones like me though are not fish, we just haven't had the best results out of everyone. I am happy with my results over the last few years (I've won, believe it or not!), and I am happy that I have played the toughest games of online poker over the last 3 years and am still standing.

5. My 6m win rate is really really ****ing good, and so are my money results.

6. I've won a lot live

7. Some results since coming home from Vegas this summer: dskfjalkdsjf can't get the screen cap to work and i am leaving but will do it tomorrow, but before importing my last 5k hands (which will bring it up more) its 80k hands, up 347k, all in EV 260 something, and all in EV win rate is 6bb/100. dont know or care why ptr doesn't reflect the results.


- Dani
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11-19-2010 , 07:52 PM
HU4Rollz fish?

Last edited by IamPro; 11-19-2010 at 07:52 PM. Reason: sorry couldn't resist :D
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11-19-2010 , 08:06 PM
Full Disclosure: I am a paying subscriber of DC and I have never received coaching from the above.
But can I just make a couple of what I consider obvious points - that need to be said.

1) These guys charge $500+ an hour for their services. Now the only people who should, could afford their services either can afford to make a mistake of buying ten hours and being wrong - i.e. the rich businessman/fish type OR its someone with a BR pro who aspires to play in those games. Now the second type - should to some extent have a prerequisite set of skills to judge if what he/she is being coached is likely to be correct in most instances.
So its not as if - people are being hoodwinked or anything - and if overtime it was demonstrated that they in fact could not play or coach at that level - its likely the price or market - in those target consumers would eventually come to bear.

2) All most all of those players in the list - DC or otherwise - are very good players. I mean they are playing in games that include each other and are in prolly the top 0.01% of field strength. So is it actually meaningful to say this guy can or cannot play or they are or not what they say they are - just because they are not able to win in the toughest games on the planet. Which is leaving aside the big effing elephant in the room that HUNLHE or HUPLO or 6M variants against mainly tough fields is slim margins with hugh variance where you are in fact never likely to ever get anywhere appraoching a million miles of a definitive sample size.
3) The underlying assumption is greatest WR or $ won is the best measure - well if you want to hang your hat on that stand - good for you. But let me just remind you - that it kinda does help to actually be able to sit in the games of Guy or martonas and any other bagazillionaire fish -------> and if they effectively donate a couple of million ---> hey we have the obvious but dubious conclusion that xx other than being 'lucky' or 'shrewd' or 'resourced' enough is now the 'best coach or poker mind on the planet'.
4) If you havent worked it out already - there is a hierachy to poker thought. The reality is because I am so far off this part of the poker hierachy - I like I am guess 99% of NVG - would not be able to tell on anything close to a rational basis whether xyz was better than abc at poker playing let alone instruction. And NVG - despite its fun retartedness - is better than the general populace - and would with all due respect have no clue to determine these things and is foolish to just sit on a one legged stool of ____> show me the garphs.
5) By implication - the only guys that could tell you - if someone is a strawman in terms of skill - are mostly in that list you cite.


end of rant.
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11-19-2010 , 08:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamsym1
For the people saying about the 2m2m guys with all their negative PTR's. It's not like these guys were all wealthy businessmen who can afford to lose 500k. All the young guys start with under $2k and a lot of them from freerolls or $50 deposits. The fact they have 1mil to lose and stuff just shows how much they have been making before PTR was around and on different sites.

The results are all massively messed up aswell because if they lose 10 buyins takin shots at 500/1000 they dont have all their own action.

Its like saying because leatherass is up 500k or whatever on his ptr hes better than krantz, whitelime, ansky and flawless. In reality these guys would pay leatherass a lot of money to lock in 20k hands at 25/50 hu or something.
The Leatherass hate on 2+2 is really something incredible. You can ask Ansky, who just posted in this thread, would he really pay "a lot of money to play Leatherass HU"?

Leatherass multitables relatively high stakes with good winrates and he is maybe the best at it except nanonoko. He won a lot of money playing poker. And he is not a bumhunter, it's impossible to bumhunt playing so many table nl600-2000 on Stars, just not enough games to select from.

So what makes you think, the 2m2m crew would pay him specifically a lot of money to play HU? Is he really such a fish or maybe his reputation is undeserved and he is a very solid winner at mid-high stakes?

I have a lot of respect for Dusty and just because he isn't taking degen shots at nosebleeeds or ships WPTs people suddenly think he sucks for whatever reason...
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11-19-2010 , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UCBananaboy
This is an inaccurate statement. Cole is no longer an instructor or owner of CardRunners. You can refer to his blog if you'd like.
Wow, i didn't know this, pretty shocking. My point was not 100% accurate then, but my point still stands. Which is cole has probably lived off the money he made while at cardrunners for the last couple of years rather than money he made won playing poker.

BTW don't get me wrong, im not trying to rip or bring down cole south. I think the guy is great, one of my favourite poker players. His HU 5K NL videos I thoguht were the best, perhaps ever for that game. There is nothing more I would like than for Cole to make a huge comeback.
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11-19-2010 , 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
In the last 2 month, Ansky made 250k in Stars cashgames (according to PTR) and cashed big in the 40k WSOP event this summer. I'm pretty sure he's able to live of his poker winnings right now.


So if someone is a car seller, had a rough year due to the bad economy (and actually lost money) but manages to hang around because he did good the last couple of years, you wouldn't describe his profession as "car selling" anymore?
Yes i would.

But if he went and got a job as a bank manager, and only continued to sell cars in his spare time, i couldn't class him as a car salesman anymore.
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11-19-2010 , 09:21 PM
Poker is so easy for smart people. So so easy. The whole poker training industry exists to make the owners of the poker training businesses a ton of money, obviously. Why else did they create them? Watching training videos is boring. What the coaches say is beyond obvious. I think the exact same things i hear or know even better than what the coach is saying. A few hundred dollars an hour for coaching is beyond hilarious. LOL The average person doesnt make $20 an hour. I cant imagine paying some kid $300-$500 an hour for help with my poker game. LOL
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