Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpha Fish
std binomial probability formula, actually was a math fail on my part - 3 or better out of 4 with 15% success rate each makes it about 1.2%, 4 out of 4 is 0.05%
That's true, but when you win one, you lose out(s), so next one isn't 15%.
In this case it was something like that 15%, next one 10%, next one 9%.
So hitting three in a row is 0.135% or 1:740.
So hitting 4 (in a row) is even less than 0.05%.
But I have no idea how to calculate 3 out of 4 in "random" style.
I read somewhere that you have to multiply 0.135% with 4, but I have no idea if that's true