Quote:
Originally Posted by Loctus
^Cashing out to reduce variance makes more sense the bigger the variance in the spot is. Thus it ofc makes more sense to cash out bigger pots than smaller ones as you say. BUT, it also makes more sense to cash out the closer your equity is to 50/50 in the hand, since variance is maximal in flips (and minimal when equities are very far apart, like dead or 1 or 2 outs).
So to sum up - since you're paying to reduce variance, you should want to reduce the variance in the biggest variance spots - which is big (bb) pots that are flips
You have solid points. But I disagree with them and went for a different approach for several reasons.
1) Flips (AK vs QQ AIPF etc) happen alot more in cash. Thus if I did this for every flip it would cost a lot more in the rake from cashing out long term.
2) Given that flips happen more often, I am likely to see them more frequently and thus should in theory, be more likely to roughly win as many as I lose and run closer to EV long term.
3) I can avoid the deepstacked variance of the aforementioned flips by not getting hands like QQ, JJ and AK in pre when deep. Just calling the 4bet after I 3bet.
4) I am more concerned about postflop spots where the player has very few outs and a deepstacked suckout would be super tilting than preflop flips when AIPF with QQ vs AK bvb.