Phil probably has ~40% equity in a live hu match like this vs these guys. You can lose 60/40's forever...
Phil's equity would be considerably lower (~33%?) had both opponents never spewed their wizardry to the public (Doug could have snap-folded his Q9 to the river c/r). But what's the point of being good at poker if it only nets you a ton of money/equity? People gotta know...
Poker used to be easy. A few capitalists/notoriety seekers ended that. So all we had left was sh/hu. But now everyone knows to defend wide and balance everything. Even fish can correctly turn sh/hu into a variance fest. And your average 5-10 pro these days would probably have ~45% equity in Phil's spot (if they weren't scared). Phil does some **** (I watched some of his match vs Doug) that is just atrocious.
Bottomline: Variance is king moving forward. Once people realize that/they finally stop being hyper-results oriented (I didn't see the hand, but what would the narrative been about Phil's 10k bluff all in into a zillion if Cates just called- or if Phil had it when Cates folded?), gg poker imo.