because he offered perkins 4:1 and he offered any coach 5:1 after two coaches backed out and it looked like he couldn't find anyone to play in coach category

Obviously true that others run sims for him, but if you watch his session reviews on the site, he has a good knowledge of how the solver works and is able to pick up on a patterns/concepts pretty well.

Imo this whole thing is super interesting. Two players who are well established in the PLO community but have completely different backgrounds and playing styles.

yeah will be interesting, i think people assuming PG is rusty though is overblown, he couldn't have accomplished slide goals without being super competitive with a relentless dedication, he's likely been prepping for some time before announcing the challenge

Phil should have a $1M buyout clause in place vs JN so that full 50K hands get played or the is a significant penalty, "buying out" for only the side bet of $200K which is only 10 buyins when Phil is giving 5:1 is semi-ridiculous.

I just want to hear jnizzles say baaaaaaaammmmmm when he stacks phil

10 buyins is still 4bb/100 over 25k hands, doesn't seem so bad imo

FWIW I would take PG over Stickman all day every day.

What will work in Jnandez favor, is that I guess he probably will have a team in place that will help him analyze between sessions.

Lol at anyone picking JN over PG. I've watched enough of JN training material and he is far from top tier player, plays straightforward, misses lots of spots, isn't even that good at the GTO stuff.

Its also questionable how much solver work really assists in heads up plo anyways, the analysis in this is very complex because of how mixed every hand and range is and the patterns are not clear at all like in 6 max or nlhe situations. HU PLO is gonna come down to figuring out how your opponent constructs his ranges and PG has tons of experience doing this for big stakes against the best in the world while JN struggles to break even at 2/5 nowadays. This is not even close and will be a pretty boring match.

I couldn't care less who wins but saying that is kind of funny when (I assume you mean zoom 2/5) he can't even play that these days and used to win 5-8 bbs/100 in those games. Obv if you have some fresh data you can prove me wrong.

Agree with this
It's going to be a battle of a way WAY superior poker thinker
vs solver guy

Still gives you a big edge to run all the sims and reports over someone who barely does - you just know more how ranges interact optimally.
Is it enough to bridge the skill + experience gap?
I very much doubt it

Is it enough for Jnandez to have better odds than 5:1? Certainly is
- the 1m to 200k added EV + running sims is why he's gonna get backing

The backing thing is also a big deal

Remember he was running a sweatshop of that NL25 guy running sims for him

Jnandez is pretty much guaranteed to have people analyzing the match every day, running sims for him and trying to figure out counter strategy to Phil by both solvers and soft advice from his backers.

I'd still put my money on Phil but this will be much closer than people think. They might even put in a clause that Jnandez can quit if he's getting destroyed, lose the money +200k before hands play out (won't have a choice if backers want him to I guess).

So with exposure and selling huge chunk of action it's +ev for Jnandez for sure to go for it

Where am I supposed to post for the challenge? :-)
I'm a coach for runitonce and guerrillapoker, would be happy to play you heads up Phil. I only play NLH though.

Most likely tweet him.

I hope at least Galfond has 100% of himself. Otherwise the stakes make no sense.

Or he goes for the "free money on sign-up 'scam'" that all the gambling sites do.

Any money they win off Phil has to be gambled through the site before it can be withdrawn.

Kind of hard to gamble when rio doesn't have casino or sports.

TL;DR on when a match is going to be played, and how/where to watch?

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

So both Galfond and his opponents can get any sort of coaching between the time the match is agreed/set until the match is over or are there any restrictions?

Win/win for Phil then!

Anyone know the maths on the side bet? How many bb/100 of a favourite does Phil need to be for the side bet to be +EV? Variance calculator (160bb/100 std deviation) says if winning 7bb/100 you've a 16% chance of being down after 50k hands (which is about 5:1). Don't think this is accurate way of calculating it though.

Early/Mid January. Perkins first up I think.
You can likely watch it streamed on twitch from both sides.
Otherwise on runitonce poker likely

This is hugely +EV bet for JN.

He can be losing up to 6bb/100 over 50k hands at standard deviation of 160bb/100 for this bet to be 0 EV according to variance calculator for 50k hands.

I dont think Phil has that edge if any in the first place.

He gets big exposure on top of that for his training site and future revenues.


Great deal for JN and his bakcers for sure.

Runchuks is talking about his possible match against Phil Galfond

https://www.twitch.tv/bluffthespot

Many years ago isn't relevant and the score at 500z was about 3.5 bb/100. During the 100k challenge he ran hugely below EV at Star's 500z and I think he later showed a score of 10 bb/100 500z in green in that challenge?

He has showed he made 300k at some earlier year between those old scores and today at some other sites but I suspect that and no official records.

He has a winrate at 200 regular (long time ago) and 1k regular at Stars but is not a regular there. When he started at 400 and 600 in the old days, he beat the rake. Those were recored by the Russian site and I have seen the picture (shows his 500z winrate also). These were a long time ago and are irrelevant these days.

He beat micros at Prima and it was streamed. He is a pretty confirmed loser at 10/20 Stars though showed a non recorded picture where he won at 10/20 zoom.