Quote:
Originally Posted by wants
The question isn't only how often Lamb will fire another bullet with a worse hand, but also what percentage of his range he is able to call a bet or a raise with. So the real question is whether the former is larger than the latter, and I think that unless Lamb is always shutting down after his cbet, we're better off hoping he fires again.
You also have to consider how many of the hands we would hope to get a call from would be value betting another barrel anyway. We're certainly not getting two more bets out of Lamb with a worse holding unless there is some kind of sick dynamic that I'm missing.
So basically, the only hands that we are hoping to extract value from with a bet/raise are the few hands that we beat that won't fire another bullet. That range seems pretty small to me.
Well, percentage of range that calls a bet/raise by us versus percent of range that fires another bullet + damage done by giving "free" turn (if no c/r) and by giving free river for the hands that do not fire another bullet. Just looking at the "which is the better way to get Ben to put money into the pot while behind" forgets the potential damage for letting Ben not pay more on flop/check behind on turn, and improve to a point that's superior.
I was more focusing on the damage done by letting Ben take a free turn. C/r or donking turn makes Ben have to pay and gets a lot of draws to fold (or pay incorrect price), and also does introduce the small but not inconsequential chance Ben believes "us" to be doing this with a draw ourselves (paticularly c/r flop), or with a hand that Ben can drive out with a shove - I mean I'd assume "we'd" snap-call if Ben shoved after we c/r, no?
Yes, it's a little results-oriented, but giving dangerous players with huge stacks and who are fully capable of pulling off bluffs with air gives Ben ("villain" at this point I guess) a ton of power. But as someone already said - that's why playing OOP sucks, paticularly against someone like Lamb.
And I'm sure the value lost by having him fold hands to a c/r that would have fired again is a big reason why I'm sitting home and they're playing the ME.
Last edited by FlatTireSuited; 07-19-2011 at 10:43 PM.