Odds to win 5 bracelets at the WSOP 2018
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 100
true odds astronomical, but id say it would be hard to find someone to book that bet with any substantial number. best odds someone would probably lay maybe 20k to 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,807
No one will even do that.. If you have a million to put up as collateral you’re not wasting your time to book a bet to win $50 even if true odds should only be $5 especially when there’s a strong chance someone tries an angle you haven’t thought of.
Unless you don’t require collateral in which case I’ll do 20k:1 for a trillion if anyone’s interested.
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,153
Apologies for the grunching (especially since this is only one page right now), but which question are we asking:
A) the odds against Koon93 winning five bracelets;
B) the odds against one average player winning five bracelets;
C) the odds against anyone winning five bracelets?
Those are entirely different propositions. Just comparing A and B: Koon is an elite player, so his chances of winning a bracelet (or five) are higher than the chances of an average Joe walking into the Rio this spring.
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,807
The order of magnitude between an average player inclined to take on this challenge and 'da best' mix game player is peanuts compared to the overall improbability of it happening for either.
Odds of anyone doing it is maybe 40x as likely as the best when you consider the number of people who (without being part of the bet) would play enough of them to even be in contentions.
It's the difference between 50m:1, 25m:1 and 1m:1. Nobody is booking it either way.
