I’m not sure how Sage got these results, but I don’t think they are close to being right. If you assume the various game events are independent in the sense that winning or losing one has no effect of how one does in another event, then the binomial distribution applies. Using Sages's event win probabilities of 2%, 1.33% and 1% for A, B, and C, the odds of winning 5 or more events out of 20 are as follows:

A: 26,000 to 1 B: 180,000 to 1 C: 730,000 to 1

One can check by using Excel’s binomial function and doing P(5 or more wins out of 20) = 1 – P(4 or less wins out of 20) = 1 - Binom(4, 20, p, True), where p is the win probability.

.....and this is why Lego was concerned about this question being asked in the asylum

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out

I did my calcs "on the back of a cigarette packet" at 6 am in the morning having been awake all night and morning and I did shortly afterwards re-rate my numbers to 10,000 to 1, 80,000 to 1 and 400,000 to 1 which are similar to your correctly calculated figures, still using that same cigarette packet!

My figures probably do take into account player "momentum" and my 20,000 to 1 odds that I mentioned I would want to get on a named player if I were to bet on it, are probably where the market would be, if there was a quoted betting market.

Stop smoking!

Probably more likely the dollar collapses before you can collect your winnings.

Bigger question is who wins a MMA fight between the koon and alex foxen.



V

Wildcard entry: Stephen Chidwick

Meh Foxen prob has it

Random find: Euro Jason Koon

Sounds extremely optimistic, considering only a handful of people have ever pulled this off in a lifetime, nevermind 20 events.

Vanessa Selbst is offering 1billion/1 as long as you accept the bet is unfair if they reach 4 bracelets.

nobody is 50:1 to win even the smallest field wsop events other than the big one drop. There were about 10 tournaments with field sizes in or around 100 where 'the best' are closer to the tune of 80:1 to win given how stacked the fields are at least a few of them overlap with each other where it's basically an impossibility to play them all... especially since the big buy in limit events go really slowly where no one busts until at least half way through day 1.

A lot of med to large field events you can't really even play because going to day 2 requires you to sit out of a small field event (which even from day 1 your odds of winning are better). And in the small field events usually half the field plays through day 2 meaning you're pretty limited in what you'll be able to play.

1 tournament with a field size around 50 (odds of best player approx 1/40), 6 tournaments with field sizes of around 100 (odds of best player approx 1/75), another 10 tournaments with field sizes of about 300 (odds of best player around 1/225) is probably what you should expect... all rough estimates obviously. Don't feel like doing the math but i'd expect odds to win 5 is closer to 1 in tens of millions than hundreds of thousands.

consensus seems to be bout tree fiddy to one

Tranquilo, Jeff, it's 4-20.

All you need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and you'll be fine.

I def don't deserve an apology, though I appreciate the politeness.

Something like this would've been fine instead

44bars to sweep the WSOP

1,350 to 1 for a world class player.

100% this! The numbers are so astronomical. I'd say at least 10,000/1 but probably higher. This has never been done nor has anyone came close in modern day and age in live or online series. With the odds being 10,000/1 I am confident I could find a better 10,000/1 longshot.

4 Bracelets is more possible and seem about more realistic but it's maxed out at that.

The most anyone has ever won in a single series is 3. And those were before the fields got to be supersized like they are today. Not only do you have to be good, you have be lucky to win even one. Fossilman stated he won about 80% of his coinflips when he won the main event. Only 24 people have won 5 more more bracelets lifetime.

So the odds of doing so are going to be like winning a lottery.

Nobody is going to offer this anyways. Bet ten million to win what, like $2?

By the way I would take this bet for $1 just for a chance to make someone sweat his balls off when I get the first two or three bracelets. True odds don't really matter in this bet. Nobody will make enough of them to overcome variance and nobody will put up millions.

I don't think a bet would be outside the realm of possibility, but just as Selbst learned the odds of going broke to winning relative change,make this a bet no one takes. I would set 5 bracelets at 100,000 to 1, but just a guess. Good luck Koon and go Raiders!

It depends on the player. A guy like Nick Shulman, Brian Rast or a Stars 8 game reg is going to get much worse odds than some random NL player or even Doug Polk.

The odds are real simple gentlemen. It's 50/50. Someone either will win 5 bracelets or they won't. Move along now.