Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey
A) 50/1 category players: Odds of winning 5 bracelets in 20 events = ~350/1
B) 75/1 category players: Odds of winning 5 bracelets in 20 events = ~2500/1
C) 100/1 category players: Odds of winning 5 bracelets in 20 events = ~12500/1
I’m not sure how Sage got these results, but I don’t think they are close to being right. If you assume the various game events are independent in the sense that winning or losing one has no effect of how one does in another event, then the binomial distribution applies. Using Sages's event win probabilities of 2%, 1.33% and 1% for A, B, and C, the odds of winning 5 or more events out of 20 are as follows:
A: 26,000 to 1
B: 180,000 to 1
C: 730,000 to 1
One can check by using Excel’s binomial function and doing P(5 or more wins out of 20) = 1 – P(4 or less wins out of 20) = 1 - Binom(4, 20, p, True), where p is the win probability.