What is the fair odds to win 5 bracelet in any event at the WSOP? I have a number in mind but dont know how far it is from the true value.

How does this change for say someone who wants to price the odds of winning 10 bracelets?

NVG is very likely to be the wrong forum but seems to get the most traffic. This is to settle a bet between myself an a friend.

Thanks

Honestly, I'm tempted to lock it given this reasoning.

But I think it might actually be the right forum (or at least a reasonable choice), so I'll leave it for the forum mods to decide.

If the bet is what the actual fair odds are, then I think this is a terrible way to settle it.

If the bet is something about what people in NVG will say the fair odds are or what they will say in response to this post, then seems like the right way to settle it obviously.

Fair enough. The bet was for the former.

This thread can be closed.

The only people that could do things like this are decent live mix players who are big-bet leaning (Jungleman, Mercier, DN, Mizrachi, Racener, Rast, Hastings, Klodnicki etc) - or the absolute top mix game pros, who are usually fixed limit leaning (mostly ppl that aren't too famous), as the fixed limit games in mix cash rotation usually outnumber the big-bet games by like a 2/1-5/1 margin.

My reasoning is that the higher variance relative to skill advantage in the limit games could allow guys like Mercier and DN to win limit holdem, horse, and OE bracelets, where the fields aren't super big (whether its a 1500 or the 50k). They could also enter the high buy-in small field big bet events, like the One Drop, 10k HUNL, 25k PLO, etc.

I'd imagine the best in the BBR/Ivey's/LA mix scene would have to depend mostly on crushing the limit and mix events, as I think they are prob giving up too much edge to the big bet specialists to be able to take down the most of the aforementioned high buy-in small field big bet events.

This is such an unlikely event that it would be like trying to imagine landing on the moon 40 years before it allegedly happened.

What?? After all that work I just did? I feel like Spicoli after the principal took away his pizza

1 to 3333

Seems interesting.What did Mercier get on his three bracelet bet?

.

What field sizes did you use?



And I guess I'll say that original poster has gotten better responses so far than I anticipated. I still don't think you can use the responses to settle the bet.

I have done some rough calcs based on a player entering 20 bracelet events and 50% to 75% of them being in non NLHE events or in NLHE 10K high roller comps, most of which have way smaller fields than the average $365 to $5K NLHE comp.

Answer A is based on an assumption that it is an absolute crusher who on average is odds of 50/1 to win each bracelet event he/she enters. 50/1 might apply to the likes of a Jason Mercier, Stephen Chidwick or Jeff Lissandro, all of whom are top draw at non NLHE variants and also excellent or at least capable at NLHE.

Answer B is based on an assumption that it is a crusher who on average is odds of 75/1 to win each bracelet event he/she enters. Possibly a suitable number for someone like Daniel Negreanu whose level is high but not quite up there with the 3 players above IMO.

Answer C is based on assumption that it is a very good player who on average is odds of 100/1 to win each bracelet event he/she enters. Possibly a suitable figure for someone like Phil Hellmuth who year on year is not quite as effective for a number of reasons.

A) 50/1 category players: Odds of winning 5 bracelets in 20 events = ~350/1
B) 75/1 category players: Odds of winning 5 bracelets in 20 events = ~2500/1
C) 100/1 category players: Odds of winning 5 bracelets in 20 events = ~12500/1

All odds above if anything are much less chance in reality, but I am factoring in momentum which although hard to prove scientifically, does in many people's minds exist in the form of a recently winning player playing with more freedom, confidence and rhythm, and perhaps many of his/her opponents suffering from a lack of these things if on a losing streak.

P.S. I am not laying bets, just putting forward what I think are some realistic figures for what is an extremely unlikely feat to ever happen. One of the paradoxical things preventing it from happening is that you would need a lot of group A type players competing in any given year....... but then they would be creating stronger competition for each other.

I am working on the basis that a lot of the Omaha, Stud, Draw and Mixed events have fields of ~100 to 450, with a mean of about 250.

I would want 20,000 to 1 to bet on a named player to win 5 or more bracelets in a year and the potential winnings underwritten in advance.

Jeff Lisandro won 3 bracelets in 2009 in comps with field sizes of 315, 164 and 359 respectively. He also finished 9/142, 17/198 and 33/363 in the other 3 events he cashed.

The more I think about this, the more I think the odds should be A) 10,000/1, B) 80,000/1 and C) 400,000/1 (Hellmuth)

I assume that is tongue in cheek for basically infinite?

No, 10,000/1, 80,000/1 and 400,000/1 are reasonably close if you do e.g. 50 to the power of 5 divided by the number of permutations of 5 from 20 attempts, which is a sort of rough way of doing the calculation, if not exact as the correct way of doing it I believe is by working kind of backwards by calculating the odds of incidences not happening which leaves the remaining probability, and factoring (however small it is) that the player might win 6 or 7 bracelets, not 5 exactly.

Why was (Hellmuth) at the end of your calculation if not meant to mean infinite or mean anything?

Are you trying to backtrack? i mean whatever into whatever. And the same into the same.

Phil Hellmuth was the 100/1 average odds, per bracelet event entered example I initially gave.

400,000/1 is a long, long way from infinity in probability terms. Its cubic route is ~73/1 so would be the odds of winning 3 consecutive 74 runner comps if all players were of even ability and performance.

Sorry, didnt mean to imply anything. Thought it was reasonable for it to be closed all things considered. I have read all the replies and they are all very good.

Not.Going.To.Happen.

bout 350 to 1

The question says odds of winning 5 bracelets in one event.

Did you mean in one year or one tournament over many years?

That the main question to discuss is "do you mean five separate bracelets in one summer by one player??" says something about what the chances of that actually are lol

So astronomical that no one would accept the big money side of it. So it is just a "What does Johnny Lodden (NVG) think?" exercise.

What is the fair odds to win 5 bracelet in any event at the WSOP?

The odds are zero - you can only win 1 bracelet in any event.

If a player won 4, he'd probably be thrown out for cheating before he could win the fifth.