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 01-26-2017, 07:05 AM #151 onebiggrind centurion     Join Date: Sep 2016 Location: New Zealand Posts: 195 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" If the jackpot is hit half goes to the person who hit it. The other half is distributed evenly among everyone who has played The Deal in the previous 12 hours. So if the jackpot was 400k and 100k people had played in the previous 12 hours, 200k (half the jackpot) would be split between 100k people = \$2 each
01-26-2017, 07:32 AM   #152
Scooter_
journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 340
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by onebiggrind If the jackpot is hit half goes to the person who hit it. The other half is distributed evenly among everyone who has played The Deal in the previous 12 hours. So if the jackpot was 400k and 100k people had played in the previous 12 hours, 200k (half the jackpot) would be split between 100k people = \$2 each
Ok - then there is almost no reason to play for 70 FPP.

01-26-2017, 07:40 AM   #153
OFA

Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 856
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by onebiggrind How do you mean? The jackpot hasn't been hit. And when it is it'll be more than \$.65 shared.

This was a few weeks ago

01-26-2017, 07:51 AM   #154
Tutejszy
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,756
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scooter_ Ok - then there is almost no reason to play for 70 FPP.
that's why it's a "skill game" in a way - because different ways of playing it have different ev (with playing for 7 cents once every 12 hours being max ev)

 01-26-2017, 08:17 AM #155 onebiggrind centurion     Join Date: Sep 2016 Location: New Zealand Posts: 195 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" I mean the highest EV strat is binary - a) play infinite times every 12 hours (when you're +EV even without the shared portion of the jackpot) b) play once every 12 hours (otherwise) yeah this is just a different way of saying the same thing
01-26-2017, 01:59 PM   #156
obviousTROLL
journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 253
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by onebiggrind I mean the highest EV strat is binary - a) play infinite times every 12 hours (when you're +EV even without the shared portion of the jackpot) b) play once every 12 hours (otherwise) yeah this is just a different way of saying the same thing
Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? SHould I bet 7 ot 70 every time?

 01-26-2017, 05:47 PM #157 Abbaddabba Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Toronto Posts: 4,190 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" Seems like the value is almost identical based on calculations earlier in this thread, and the value per pull is about 1.6x given current jackpot of about 430k. So a 70 coin game valued at 70 cents yields about 110-115 cents. Should be quite rare for it to get this big so probably worth liquidating whatever you have.
 01-26-2017, 06:25 PM #158 Uhrenknecht veteran     Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Hamburg Posts: 3,443 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" The downside of this game is obv that any game with a coin buy in gets more reggier
01-26-2017, 07:12 PM   #159
Derpdeedoo
enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 94
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Abbaddabba Seems like the value is almost identical based on calculations earlier in this thread, and the value per pull is about 1.6x given current jackpot of about 430k. So a 70 coin game valued at 70 cents yields about 110-115 cents. Should be quite rare for it to get this big so probably worth liquidating whatever you have.
Are those calcs accurate though? Some people say they aren't.

01-26-2017, 07:51 PM   #160
youriw21
grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 595
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Derpdeedoo Are those calcs accurate though? Some people say they aren't.
They are. Though its not rare to hit 440K.

01-26-2017, 07:58 PM   #161
Don't mind me
grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 508
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by youriw21 They are. Though its not rare to hit 440K.
Thanks for your excel calc on the previous page youriw21. What do you think the probability that the jackpot hits 440k again in the next two months is?

01-26-2017, 08:24 PM   #162
youriw21
grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 595
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Don't mind me Thanks for your excel calc on the previous page youriw21. What do you think the probability that the jackpot hits 440k again in the next two months is?
Without doing any math.. I'd say 1-2 times

01-26-2017, 09:13 PM   #163
brianhastings
stranger

Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 12
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by obviousTROLL Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? SHould I bet 7 ot 70 every time?
yes, it's +EV to bust your account right now. Would need a massive bankroll for kelly to approve however

 01-26-2017, 09:24 PM #164 Abbaddabba Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Toronto Posts: 4,190 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" Here's another analysis of the EV: https://chrislo.ca/the-expected-valu...at-pokerstars/ And wrt the rarity of the jackpot getting this big, is there any list of historic jackpots on stars? here's one for fulltilt which should produce the same size jackpots just stretched over longer periods of time. http://online.casinocity.com/article...pot-won-124472 It shows 6 consecutive jackpots 233k, 90k, 204k, 109k, 221k and 389k.
 01-27-2017, 12:04 AM #165 OhEllNo centurion   Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 138 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" how much worth my 7fpp placement right now ?
01-27-2017, 12:31 AM   #166
Tutejszy
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,756
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by OhEllNo how much worth my 7fpp placement right now ?
it was said million times already - there is now way to calculate ev, because majority of ev from one game depends on both your and ALL the other participants' playing patterns

01-27-2017, 03:27 AM   #167
brianhastings
stranger

Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 12
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Tutejszy it was said million times already - there is now way to calculate ev, because majority of ev from one game depends on both your and ALL the other participants' playing patterns
I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.

01-27-2017, 03:31 AM   #168
elendil200

Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Sydney
Posts: 896
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by brianhastings yes, it's +EV to bust your account right now. Would need a massive bankroll for kelly to approve however
About the nature of this being +ev. This coment nails it.

01-27-2017, 04:17 AM   #169
Joe Knott
grinder

Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 420
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by brianhastings I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.
Yeah. Basically the one 7-coins bet every 12 hours is always profitable, while EV of the consequent bets is very easy to calculate (and should not depend on players' patterns really).

01-27-2017, 09:29 AM   #170
obviousTROLL
journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 253
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by obviousTROLL Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? Should I bet 7 ot 70 every time?
Well, that's how I lost my 20000 coins. I really hope it was +EV attempt to win big.

 01-27-2017, 12:47 PM #171 pechkin adept   Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 728 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" the dissapointment when you dont win isnt worth the risk also you still have to sit there and press buttons every 10 spins so time is wasted too, stick to 1 every 12
01-27-2017, 01:43 PM   #172
Tutejszy
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,756
Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by brianhastings I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.
ok, I overstated it with "majority of ev", but there is still difference in ev depending on wether in next 12 hours other players will stick to 1 game with max ev or punt off more - and you can't predict future while calculating ev

 01-27-2017, 02:47 PM #173 CoreySteel old hand     Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Slovenia Posts: 1,706 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" You didn't really overstate, it's was just wrong. Betting pattern doesn't matter for your EV* in "7sc/12hr strategy". What matters is number of players that put a bet in. * I mean, sure, it does. Prizepool's gonna be 421k instead of 420k, but it won't change your EV really.
 01-27-2017, 04:00 PM #174 pechkin adept   Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 728 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" also is my math correct that the chance to hit royal flush is 5/13*4/51*3/50*2/49*1/48? if so, then the chance in the chart is like 100 times higher than it is, 0.0000015390771693 is what i get? my math may be wrong tho, but it looks more realistic, i mean it's unlikely that you can hit royal flush once in 10000 spins, there would be royal flushes flushing everywhere
 01-27-2017, 04:36 PM #175 pechkin adept   Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 728 Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" nvm its % vs actual number, thats where 100x comes from

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