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Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars

03-26-2010 , 04:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by limon
ive looked through the hands and seen him on tv. ive made a living for a decade finding good games and having an idea of how big a loser a player is. daniel makes some standard "im good enough post to get away w/ this" preflop errors and some very small nitpicky postflop errors in these games AND THIS IS BASED ON 20/20 HINDSIGHT ANALYSIS (by myself and others). keep in mind that every player in that game and every palyer in every game makes small errors in retrospect and i would put him at about $100 an hour loser in that game. that really sucks. its 200k a year full time. but no lineup is gonna make a living off him and this will be found out soon enough. a player needs to be a 1000/hr loser to keep a world class lineup fed. daniel isnt close to this. i guess he could be dragging other soft spots into the game but that actually would probably bump him up to being a small winner in the game.

i know i have no credibility but, like with everything else, well see...
Ok if you really believe what ur saying and u want credibility.

I'll snap crossbook against DN's action any time he plays 100/200nl on stars and i'll pay you 4bb/100. This would net you according to yourself a true winrate of approx 6$/hand so 600$/hr.

I think you're a mostly 10/20 25/50 live player so you this has to be good money for you. Also you said you think daniel loses like 100$/hr. Once again if u want we can just crossbook action and i'll pay you like 400$/hr or something like that if you want.

Let's see how sure you are.
Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars Quote
03-26-2010 , 05:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
fullhouse, 100%

absolutely. he's hoping like hell someone has an 8 for a made straight, or a 9 like daniel had.
Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars Quote
03-26-2010 , 05:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzor
Is Durrrr really running that far above expectation? I only watch HSP, and hes taken two brutal beats in HUGE pots vs BarryG and Daniel Negreanu..
he also won a flip vs greenstein for almost a million which is like running $500k above EV so that cancels out a lot from the suckout Greenstein won
Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars Quote
03-26-2010 , 05:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by limon
ive looked through the hands and seen him on tv. ive made a living for a decade finding good games and having an idea of how big a loser a player is. daniel makes some standard "im good enough post to get away w/ this" preflop errors and some very small nitpicky postflop errors in these games AND THIS IS BASED ON 20/20 HINDSIGHT ANALYSIS (by myself and others). keep in mind that every player in that game and every palyer in every game makes small errors in retrospect and i would put him at about $100 an hour loser in that game. that really sucks. its 200k a year full time. but no lineup is gonna make a living off him and this will be found out soon enough. a player needs to be a 1000/hr loser to keep a world class lineup fed. daniel isnt close to this. i guess he could be dragging other soft spots into the game but that actually would probably bump him up to being a small winner in the game.

i know i have no credibility but, like with everything else, well see...

this is just so wrong. He is an absolutely massive loser vs the lineups he is playing. From what I have seen from watching these games, I think he would get demolished in 5-10 6 max on stars. I am a random tournament clown and probably cant beat a tough 3-6 lineup, but am almost positive I am correct.
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03-26-2010 , 09:37 AM
lol, ptr has him down to -5BB/100

/thread
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03-26-2010 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel Negreanu
I haven't really been working with anybody. I talked to Jason Somerville for maybe 15 minutes about 4-bet raise sizing since it confused me why the regulars in that game 4-bet so small, even OOP. I was raising to 600, getting 3-bet to 2000, then 4-betting to 5600-6000 with 20k stacks and it seemed right to me. JCarver helped me understand why that's not the best raise size.

He's also going to hook me up with Hold'em Manager. I have no idea how to use that kind of stuff, but he is going to show me when I get to Mohegan Sun and I guess that will help me detect some other holes in my game, while maybe getting a better feel for my opponents. Thing is, I feel like I already have a good feel for what my opponents in that game are doing, so it's more a case of me playing my hands correctly from a fundamental standpoint.

I'm going to get good and I think I'm going to get good fast. Nothing feels particularly hard at the moment and I think my learning curve is already past where I'd expect it to be.

Call me crazy, but I do think eventually I'll be a long term winner in that game. I only started tackling it properly this month and while the sample size makes my results meaningless, I feel like I'm making lots of good decisions. Lots of bad technical ones still, but in terms of turn and river play I think I'm already playing those streets very well.
I'm definitely still too addicted to hands like 2s 3s, but that comes from my tournament strategy and I know for a fact that works. It probably is pretty awful to do those kinds of things in the game I'm playing in, but one way or another I'll learn. I'll either hit tons of em and keep doing it, or learn the hard way by spewing in bad spots!
if you had read my nvg post in the HS thread you would have known that you were 4betting too large. It makes me proud as a former 50NL reg that I figured that out but DN didn't.
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03-26-2010 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moshiach
His constant amazement at the most mundane of hands is so annoying, he does this all the time on HSP, "amazing, this hand is so weird", no it's not.
I think its more to the point of "i keep getting 2nd best hands and know it but dont want to fold" type comments.
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03-26-2010 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
mm, ive noticed a couple of nvgtards jump on the 4/8 bit

obviously mean 400/800
nothing is obvious to a nvgtard clayton
Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars Quote
03-26-2010 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZaneKinetic
if you had read my nvg post in the HS thread you would have known that you were 4betting too large. It makes me proud as a former 50NL reg that I figured that out but DN didn't.
SICK!
BBV post for sure. You will get 5star thread!
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03-26-2010 , 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hundrye
Ok if you really believe what ur saying and u want credibility.

I'll snap crossbook against DN's action any time he plays 100/200nl on stars and i'll pay you 4bb/100. This would net you according to yourself a true winrate of approx 6$/hand so 600$/hr.

I think you're a mostly 10/20 25/50 live player so you this has to be good money for you. Also you said you think daniel loses like 100$/hr. Once again if u want we can just crossbook action and i'll pay you like 400$/hr or something like that if you want.

Let's see how sure you are.
lol...$400 hedge against 100k swings. GOOD DEAL! if you live in l.a. we can bet on this all day. we can do your crossbook deal /5 or we can go session by session and you can give me 4-1 or something on whether daniel will be up for the session or not. ill figure out a way to give you 5k a week. itll be worth hanging out at the commerce a little.
Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars Quote
03-26-2010 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by limon
lol...$400 hedge against 100k swings. GOOD DEAL! if you live in l.a. we can bet on this all day. we can do your crossbook deal /5 or we can go session by session and you can give me 4-1 or something on whether daniel will be up for the session or not. ill figure out a way to give you 5k a week. itll be worth hanging out at the commerce a little.
Of course it's a good deal if you think your words are even remotely true.
And yes i'll pay you 4bb/100 to crossbook at 25/50 or 50/100 worth or whatever. And no i won't be at commerce dunno how that's relevant.

Dunno where you got that nonsense about giving you 4-1 on DN winning a session, for that to be a good bet for me he'd have to lose like 50bb/100 or play very long sessions.

But like i said next time i'd happily crossbook 25/50 or 50/100 worth and pay u 4bb/100. Lower wouldn't be worth the effort.
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03-26-2010 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hundrye
Of course it's a good deal if you think your words are even remotely true.
And yes i'll pay you 4bb/100 to crossbook at 25/50 or 50/100 worth or whatever. And no i won't be at commerce dunno how that's relevant.

Dunno where you got that nonsense about giving you 4-1 on DN winning a session, for that to be a good bet for me he'd have to lose like 50bb/100 or play very long sessions.

But like i said next time i'd happily crossbook 25/50 or 50/100 worth and pay u 4bb/100. Lower wouldn't be worth the effort.
commerce is relevant because i only bet face to face and i do bet big w/people i see everyday and who see me (this is easily verified), im old school. someone from l.a. already read this and we are betting on dan now (different deal). your deal is fair though someone who trusts you/online betting should take it.

if daniel knows/trusts you he should jump on it.
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03-26-2010 , 12:25 PM
its not hard to escrow dude
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03-26-2010 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kolotoure
its not hard to escrow dude
i already got easy face to face action based on these posts. i expect ill get more if i start losing. no escrow necessary.
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03-26-2010 , 12:56 PM
derivatives itt
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03-26-2010 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by limon
commerce is relevant because i only bet face to face and i do bet big w/people i see everyday and who see me (this is easily verified), im old school. someone from l.a. already read this and we are betting on dan now (different deal). your deal is fair though someone who trusts you/online betting should take it.

if daniel knows/trusts you he should jump on it.
stop hijacking this thread with your moronic responses please. you are just embarrassing yourself
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03-26-2010 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by equalsfour?
stop hijacking this thread with your moronic responses please. you are just embarrassing yourself
Meh altho he is almost certainly wrong on the matter his last posts weren't really unreasonable or anything. If he already has action on it w people he knows then that's obv better and easier than betting w me.
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03-26-2010 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hundrye
Meh altho he is almost certainly wrong on the matter his last posts weren't really unreasonable or anything. If he already has action on it w people he knows then that's obv better and easier than betting w me.
I actually should be tahnking you. For real. I never thought in a million years people would be pm'ing me to bet against DN while giving up so much. Maybe I'm dead wrong...well see.
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03-26-2010 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by equalsfour?
stop hijacking this thread with your moronic responses please. you are just embarrassing yourself
"limon- hijacking threads and embarrassing himself since 2001" tm
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03-26-2010 , 03:43 PM
Anyone else think that Negreanu is in a contract year with Pokerstars?

He lets himself wander off from the poker world for 3-4 years and becomes a amateur golf partner for pro/am events, not even hiding the fact that he barely plays poker. The game, unsurprisingly and by his own admission, passes him by.

Now suddenly he's saying how 2010 is going to be a huge year for him in tournament poker, laying on a thick spiel about "preparing" and "wanting it this year". Anyone who knows about the incredibly high variance that comes with tournament poker should see such posturing as nothing more than empty marketing and self-promotion. "Preparing" isn't going to help you win those 5-6 key coinflips you need to advance in a big tournament field. Even a mathematical midget like Negreanu probably realizes how much pure luck is involved in a tiny sample of one year, and how stupid it is to say you "know" you are going to have a big year in live tournament poker.

And now his sudden interest in becoming a NL cash game winner? Did he miss all of the past decade, when all professional gamblers knew this was the best opportunity of a lifetime, and worth learning? That boat has been sailing for years now. Or is he just finally embarrassed that the face of Pokerstars has less hands played at NL cash games for his entire life than most pros do in a month? Even counting that embarrassing 2nl stuff.

It just smells like the behavior of someone in a contract year, like your typical NBA player who puts up a "who gives a f***" attitude for 3 years and suddenly becomes a super-invested, super-interested maniac in his last year of a contract. I find this easier to believe than his having a new found love of the game, based on his overwhelming complacency of the past few years.
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03-26-2010 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bernieshaw
Anyone else think that Negreanu is in a contract year with Pokerstars?

He lets himself wander off from the poker world for 3-4 years and becomes a amateur golf partner for pro/am events, not even hiding the fact that he barely plays poker. The game, unsurprisingly and by his own admission, passes him by.

Now suddenly he's saying how 2010 is going to be a huge year for him in tournament poker, laying on a thick spiel about "preparing" and "wanting it this year". Anyone who knows about the incredibly high variance that comes with tournament poker should see such posturing as nothing more than empty marketing and self-promotion. "Preparing" isn't going to help you win those 5-6 key coinflips you need to advance in a big tournament field. Even a mathematical midget like Negreanu probably realizes how much pure luck is involved in a tiny sample of one year, and how stupid it is to say you "know" you are going to have a big year in live tournament poker.

And now his sudden interest in becoming a NL cash game winner? Did he miss all of the past decade, when all professional gamblers knew this was the best opportunity of a lifetime, and worth learning? That boat has been sailing for years now. Or is he just finally embarrassed that the face of Pokerstars has less hands played at NL cash games for his entire life than most pros do in a month? Even counting that embarrassing 2nl stuff.

It just smells like the behavior of someone in a contract year, like your typical NBA player who puts up a "who gives a f***" attitude for 3 years and suddenly becomes a super-invested, super-interested maniac in his last year of a contract. I find this easier to believe than his having a new found love of the game, based on his overwhelming complacency of the past few years.

Why all the hate for DN? He made his name in Poker as a MTT Grinder not a CG Grinder. Give the dude a break. Just because he has more $$ in 1 buy-in at 100/200 NL than you will ever have in your lifetime doesn't mean you should hate on the guy. He isn't trying to sit in front of his computer for days without showering and peeing in bottles. He is living it up in Vegas & enjoying his life.
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03-26-2010 , 04:03 PM
Daniel has always been super determined when it comes to poker. Going by his blog he takes his preparation very seriously, especially when it comes to sleep and diet. He's had some nice finishes at the last WSOP. He's also been super active in the media, hosting the pokerstars show and USA vs Europe, etc. Don't know where you see he has "blown off" poker for 3-4 years
Negreanu is beating 0/200 NL on Pokerstars Quote
03-26-2010 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bernieshaw
Anyone else think that Negreanu is in a contract year with Pokerstars?

He lets himself wander off from the poker world for 3-4 years and becomes a amateur golf partner for pro/am events, not even hiding the fact that he barely plays poker. The game, unsurprisingly and by his own admission, passes him by.

Now suddenly he's saying how 2010 is going to be a huge year for him in tournament poker, laying on a thick spiel about "preparing" and "wanting it this year". Anyone who knows about the incredibly high variance that comes with tournament poker should see such posturing as nothing more than empty marketing and self-promotion. "Preparing" isn't going to help you win those 5-6 key coinflips you need to advance in a big tournament field. Even a mathematical midget like Negreanu probably realizes how much pure luck is involved in a tiny sample of one year, and how stupid it is to say you "know" you are going to have a big year in live tournament poker.

And now his sudden interest in becoming a NL cash game winner? Did he miss all of the past decade, when all professional gamblers knew this was the best opportunity of a lifetime, and worth learning? That boat has been sailing for years now. Or is he just finally embarrassed that the face of Pokerstars has less hands played at NL cash games for his entire life than most pros do in a month? Even counting that embarrassing 2nl stuff.

It just smells like the behavior of someone in a contract year, like your typical NBA player who puts up a "who gives a f***" attitude for 3 years and suddenly becomes a super-invested, super-interested maniac in his last year of a contract. I find this easier to believe than his having a new found love of the game, based on his overwhelming complacency of the past few years.

nope
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03-26-2010 , 04:25 PM
limon is the mfing man imo
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03-26-2010 , 05:29 PM
I'm so unqualified to be in this discussion but I'm very opinionated and I like clicky sounds

bernieshaw,

You seem really off base. In the previous 4 years he's had over $5 million in live tournament winnings. He's not having the stellar year he had in 2004 but his winnings are increasing. He might have a repeat of 2004 but every year can't be like that.

As for what he said about this year, I don't think it's any type of promotion. It's just his personal pep talk that he happened to post online. You never sat down at your computer and said "Today I'm going to have a great session!"? The only difference is that nobody cares when you say it except you and the people within earshot and probably only because you're talking over the TV.

Between his tournament play, sponsorship deals, appearances and personal life maybe he didn't have the time or feel the need to become some crazy online grinder.

His online success probably doesn't even matter to PokerStars. Negreanu is one of the most recognizable faces in Poker and gets a lot of TV time. He has a lot of fans. His value to PokerStars is in being able to bring in new players and I'd guess he does a good job at it.

So he wants to become a better online player and NLHE cash game player, just like most of the people that come to forums like this.

He's discussing hands, strategy, starting to use poker software... Any unknown poster doing the same wouldn't get the type of responses he's getting.

In a year from now which would you rather say "When DN was finally getting serious about online poker I told him he sucked." Or "I got to discuss strategy with him"

I think it's pretty cool that he's trying to get better at online poker and that he's coming here. This isn't like the challenge I read about with 2eazy, this time he seems to only be challenging himself in the high stakes nlhe game. At least that's the impression I'm getting.

He's obviously not completely horrible at $100/$200 nlhe and it looks like he's actually working on it. With his experience he has a good shot at doing well.

For the reasons I stated earlier, I doubt his PS contract is in jeopardy but it's obvious that PS would want to increase action at it's higher limit cash game tables. The FTP pros you see on TV play CGs there frequently. The ones on PokerStars, not so much.

That said, I would guess he's doing this more for personal reasons but PS is obviously getting benefit from it.
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