Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
I don't agree with this. Many of the events in history such as what you're describing should have a low variance. Thus it's not a gamble by the criterion that we're going to use since the outcome is fairly certain.
Best wishes,
Mason
Just to select one counter example to argue against your view, Mason, a good reading of Lewis and Clark - one of these for example ...
Undaunted Courage: Meriwether Lewis, Thomas Jefferson, and the Opening of the American West
or
The Journals of Lewis and Clark (Lewis & Clark Expedition)
... would probably change your mind about the variance and plain old luck those guys experienced... yes, if they were able to continue west they eventually would have found the Pacific Ocean but there are hundreds of pages of "if" that, once you read about it, might convince you otherwise.