Bax tweeted same hand. He said he had AA. I believe him. The way hand plays adds up to AA in that scenario with players involved and deep stacks. I think a sick but correct fold...
this is like never a flush draw. Its a set every time.
Based on that tho, negreanu is flipping vs a range of AA or bottom set and with the dead money in the pot i doubt id find a fold. However i do know in a MTT it can be correct to fold small +ev spots if the structure allows for it and you have a big enough edge vs the field. This certainly could classify as one of those spots.
There's a reason all the names I recognize as actual poker players are the ones saying fold. It's not even that tough a fold. Bax doing this with AJ would be god-awful. Do you not understand where he flats the lead in a 4-way pot and then cold 4bets? And even if we give him the benefit of playing all reasonable straight+flush draws like that:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
5,940 games 0.000 secs 1,188,000 games/sec
Board: Ah Js 8h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.249% 33.25% 00.00% 1975 0.00 { JcJd }
Hand 1: 66.751% 66.75% 00.00% 3965 0.00 { AA, KhQh, QhTh, Th9h }