Originally Posted by Kilowatt
This is a complete mess, and the "resolution" was terrible.
Here are my conclusions:
1. There was no bookie. Jason was booking the bets himself. This thread is now 35 pages long. Jason has dodged all questions about the bookie, including requests to privately name the bookie to a trusted third party. It is reasonably certain by Jason's lack of response here, along with the general suspicious nature of the entire situation, that there was no third-party bookie.
2. Jason did not have the money to cover the bet when Chris placed it. It is unclear of the reason for this. It had to be one of three things:
-- a) This was an outright scam/freeroll, born out of desperation to get out of a huge financial mess.
-- b) This was a "middling" or "make guaranteed juice" situation, where Jason got someone else to take the reverse Chris' action, perhaps at a worse line, and then the whole thing collapsed when Chris couldn't/wouldn't pay.
-- c) Jason did not set out to scam Chris, but was simply booking too much action that he couldn't cover, unrealsitically telling himself that somehow he would eventually pay everyone if he lost. This is what I call "The Lindgren Excuse", and while more noble than outright scamming/freerolling, is still pretty scummy.
If I had to guess, I would say that "c" above is what really happened.
3) Chris also did not have the money at the time the bet was made. I believe that Chris believed a staking deal was coming in the near future, and would be able to cover it somehow through that if he lost. When the staking deal fell through, Chris was probably unable to pay the $20k, and rather than snap-pay Jason as he would have if flush with money, probably decided to research the situation a bit more before paying. Once he found that Jason also did not have the money to back the bet, and in fact appeared to have lied about the bookie, Chris felt justified not to pay him at all. Obviously this also means Chris was not completely innocent in this situation, either. However, the difference is that Chris bet the money as himself (with Jason's full knowledge and ability to ascertain his financial health), while Jason bet the money as a fictitious person (which is fraudulent).
4) The biggest winners here are Jason's creditors -- sheets, et all. They were probably coming close to writing off this money as uncollectible. Now they will be likely be getting paid -- at least partially -- fairly soon, and via an unrelated third party! Talk about pennies from heaven!
5) The second-biggest winner here is Jason. He likely created a fake "reputable" bookie to take large sportsbets, booked the action himself with money he didn't have, and somehow is able to get one of his winning bets paid in full! He doesn't make out quite as well as his creditors, as he simply is having debt erased rather than any kind of cash infusion (the thing he really wanted), but that's still a great result when you were freerolling/lying and got caught.
6) The loser here is Chris. He pretty much lost in every way here. Now a large group of 2+2 readers know that he is a broke sportsbetting degen. Some now believe him to be a shady character, who tries to weasel out of bets. And worst yet, despite all of that, he's still out 20k! Wow! This couldn't have ended worse for him.
I still believe Chris was in the right, simply because he bet with a fictitious third party, and you cannot owe a fictitious entity money. Once that was discovered, the bet should have been immediately considered null and void. Furthermore, Jason himself clearly didn't have the money to cover it at the time, so he was being both lied to and freerolled. Even if Chris was somewhat freerolling himself, that isn't material here, because he lost the bet. Had the bet fallen the other way, it would be a much tougher call, since at least Jason's bet would have been with a real person (Chris).