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Old 10-03-2019, 02:44 PM   #1876
jjjou812
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
You should see his work in the new politics forum. Except there's about 8 clones of him as well. It's fun.
Now that you have joined the brain trust, can any of you three stooges explain what conclusions you can draw from comparing his hourly winrate in a cashgame (winrate over those 277 hours (30hands/hour) of 300bb/100) and a 41 hand sample of number of winning hands in a Absolute Poker tournament?

Assuming you are just comparing standard deviations, what is the significance that Postle is 8.76bb/100 and Potripper was 7.29 standard deviations above expectations? How does the crotch photographer's conclusion make any sense?

I am sure the UP forum has the answer. Juan, go take a look at get back to us.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:45 PM   #1877
SuitedJunk
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I mentioned a bone conducting speaker possibly in his hat... Noticed a few pages back before I did someone posted a link to a twitter where they shared a bone conducting speaker bluetooth hat.

Can someone figure out the booth "chat" in relation to his actions? All he needs to be doing is have a phone inside the booth on speaker picking up the talk. They could be feeding information with their chat talk. Posple would have his phone on Mute so the phone in the booth doesn't hear the table chat... He would only at this point need to use his phone to text privately. This would have phone calls (or bluetooth communication) for the length of the stream.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:48 PM   #1878
IQofTwoPlusTwo
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by borg23 View Post
lol of course it's to "avoid detection"
It's beyond obvious he's cheating. and he's cheating like a total moron but that still isn't enough for you since he didn't actually fold the full house and nut flush he just called with them. amazing.
Dude, it is even more amazing. Even if an accomplice confesses, it won't be enough, because confessions aren't 100% reliable.

Quote:
Or someone comes forward and admits to be an accomplice(also not 100% reliable evidence).
If I ever commit some terrible crime, I want this mook on the jury.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:51 PM   #1879
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by CCuster_911 View Post
Oh. Did they just put it back up or has it always been the banner?
I saw it as their twitter header yesterday. I think it was before they announced they have suspended their live streaming but not 100%.

You would think Justin has bigger problems than changing the twitter profile
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:55 PM   #1880
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Wish I could fast forward to mike crying apology video
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:59 PM   #1881
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by kerr View Post
On a scale of 0-100, how greedy is he or how stupid is he to not try to mask his cheating somewhat?
as I've noted before I think "masking his cheating somewhat" might cut into his insane winrate enough to make a scheme like this not worth risking everything for. obviously just making all the correct river decisions is massively profitable but what really irks me is that he's taking lines that are basically impossible to explain by anything other than "he can see his opponents cards", because they are lines that are not even all that profitable when you can. that 95o 3-way all in hand is probably the best example of this. even knowing your opponent's cards, this line is really not all that profitable. it might even be a losing play. if you DIDNT know your opponent's cards, it would be one of the worst plays in poker history. THAT is where I think he gets real greedy since plays like this cannot be adding a whole lot to his winrate but they do look so blatantly suspicious. I think the simple explanation here is that he is not very smart. He does practically nothing to even try to throw people off the scent. maybe he thought that not open mucking KK when someone had AA was enough.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:01 PM   #1882
jjjou812
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by freedom 35 View Post
Lol what is your deal pal. Take a hike then.


Nah, I enjoy stupid people saying stupid things. I am awaiting updates on the following:

1. What the FBI said when it is reported that a guy was cheating at a card game and you want to them to open an investigation
2. Whether Stones fires its employees for cause based on this thread
3. What the past jurists takes are on the evidence
4. How smiles and laughing is significant proof of cheating
5. Whether the Ca Gaming Commission shuts down Stones
6. The standard deviation of crotch glances per hands won
7. Whether Joey, Dougie or crotch dude win the Inspector Clouseau award
8. Outcome of Hatgate

Last edited by jjjou812; 10-03-2019 at 03:09 PM.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:05 PM   #1883
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Anyone looking for the magic hat:

https://www.amazon.com/Cynaps-Blueto.../dp/B019BVVLK6
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:06 PM   #1884
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

"Won the most at seat 2" is bs, he just plays the most games from seat 2 so of course he wins the most from seat 2.

"Bone conduction speaker" could be a thing, but I'm neutral to it. You have to explain why does he need to hear something when hes already looking at his phone. It cant be any other kind of electronic because he would just keep it in his pocket, also I don't think the pictures are conclusive it can be just the tag or he put it on wrong. One thing that is pro bone conduction speaker is that it seems that Justin needs to be in the casino for him to be cheating. That to me suggests that the phone system is not enough, because it seems like that could be operated alone.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:07 PM   #1885
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich View Post
Would've taken players at that casino at least another three years to figure out something was off if their cheating methods didn't need a stream.

The 54o hand is cited as the main example and it's actually the least suspicious one to me as players with his stats call big allins with that type of hand all the time in my experience. (it's the moneymaker winning wsop hand so it easily could've been a pure trolling thought process) Hopefully that tilted the hell out of him.
I believe there is a hand with him folding KK preflop v one opponent though (who unsurprisingly had AA), so it doesn't make sense that he's getting all in on that spot with 54o against 2 opponents.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:10 PM   #1886
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Does anyone know if Stones have more than one RFID table?
Does god mode only happen at one of those tables?
Joey and Doug just showed a clip of this dude with his phone out on the rail, totally difference posture. It looked like a different table to me.
Does he only have access to the RFID on one specific table?
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:11 PM   #1887
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Wice View Post
"Won the most at seat 2" is bs, he just plays the most games from seat 2 so of course he wins the most from seat 2.

"Bone conduction speaker" could be a thing, but I'm neutral to it. You have to explain why does he need to hear something when hes already looking at his phone. It cant be any other kind of electronic because he would just keep it in his pocket, also I don't think the pictures are conclusive it can be just the tag or he put it on wrong. One thing that is pro bone conduction speaker is that it seems that Justin needs to be in the casino for him to be cheating. That to me suggests that the phone system is not enough, because it seems like that could be operated alone.
I think the theory is bone conduction speaker is a solution to the phone ban.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:11 PM   #1888
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
Now that you have joined the brain trust, can any of you three stooges explain what conclusions you can draw from comparing his hourly winrate in a cashgame (winrate over those 277 hours (30hands/hour) of 300bb/100) and a 41 hand sample of number of winning hands in a Absolute Poker tournament?

Assuming you are just comparing standard deviations, what is the significance that Postle is 8.76bb/100 and Potripper was 7.29 standard deviations above expectations? How does the crotch photographer's conclusion make any sense?

I am sure the UP forum has the answer. Juan, go take a look at get back to us.
Alright ****wit I’ve had enough of you. You want your answer here it is. First of all I cannot put the calculations into Primedope variance calculator on the internet because it doesn’t go into 15 decimals percentage. So if we go off the scattergraph data that postle is winning at 950bb/100 over roughly 8k hands (52 sessions x 30 hands per hours each session being 5 hours that’s 7800 hands). Now most standard deviations in a game are between 60-160bb/100. But since they are so deep and spazz let’s ramp that up to 400bb/100. Guess how many standard deviations above the mean Postle is running assuming he is an absolute crushing 40bb/100 winner. It’s over 20 standard deviations. Potripper is 7.29 deviations which makes sense because he’s playing a tournament with less decision points, shallower stacks and it’s over a smaller sample.

I couldn’t actually find a calculator that would give me the equivalent probability to the Z score so I actually had to ask a guy where I would be able to convert this Z score to a percentage chance of someone with this win rate running this high above eV. He gave me an wolfram alpha output at the odds of these parameters happening as a probability of 1 in 2.49^92. I cannot even begin to fathom how many times you would have to win powerball in a row to get to this probability. Actually you know what f*ck you I’m gonna tell you, the odds of winning powerball is 292million to 1. This guy to do this at a 40bb/100 winrate would be the same as winning the Powerball millions 11 times in a row, this is several orders of magnitude higher than the atoms in the universe. Now please go back to your cave you absolute loser.

Last edited by Halo_P1; 10-03-2019 at 03:30 PM.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:11 PM   #1889
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

My first post here in years.

I've been playing this game professionally for more than 10 years. He is a cheater 100%.

His behavior is erratic. His moves don't match. Sometimes he is a passive nit (when it matters to him). He even makes ridiculous folds pre flop and on the flop (like the AK one).
And sometimes he is loose as **** especially pre flop and on the turn in all the right spots.

He is just... always right. Somehow.

There's a hand where he has 88s (a full house) and avoids a cooler against TT's (a bigger full house) by just calling the river.
And there's A LOT OF hands where he has way worse value hands and raises. What?

How? Why?

Pure godly instincts? I don't think so.

https://imgur.com/a/VwFCiSK

This hand is the most ridiculous one imo.

He casually calls a 4bet pre flop with 95o (his cards are live, as always) and then proceeds to donk jam the flop, wtf?

Why on earth one of the best players on the planet right now would play so funky preflop randomly and ALWAYS on the right spots?
AND SOMEHOW SHOW A MONSTROUS PROFIT AFTER ALL THESE DUMB PLAYS.

Can someone explain this to me? It doesn't make sense at all.

Last edited by n00ki5; 10-03-2019 at 03:24 PM.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:12 PM   #1890
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

This is just incorrect. The show is produced live. The graphics can only be changed if the producer sees the cards when they are flipped over or if they player in the hand (Mike) communicated to someone in the booth during the hand, which is very unlikely. What's more likely is whoever was in on it noticed what was going on and changed the graphics right before the end of the hand to try to save their cover, not realizing that it actually proved their guilt.

Scroll to 00:35:20 of this clip where the RFID did actually pick up the wrong cards. Notice how the graphics change from K9ss to A9ss after the cards are tabled.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUr3WeFDHZM&t=12063s
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:17 PM   #1891
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

My buddy is an anchor/reporter for Fox40 (Sacramento local) and is probably going to do a story on this. He needs people to interview. DM me if you have personal knowledge.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:21 PM   #1892
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
Nah, I enjoy stupid people saying stupid things. I am awaiting updates on the following:

1. What the FBI said when it is reported that a guy was cheating at a card game and you want to them to open an investigation

please either stop being a moron and showing how little you know about this or better yet just gtfo.

This has nothing to do with the FBI.

1) CGCB opens investigation based on a phone call from anyone.
.
2) They send investigators to you know... investigate. If they find violations of gaming code they fine, take away licenses of staff or rooms, and/or other things. I have no idea what gaming regs are for live streams are in CA or if Stones followed rules . But that's where they start along with interviewing everyone. Whoever calls will I am sure point them to this thread as well.

2) If CGCB (which I think is is dept within CA DOJ) finds violations of CA criminal code (cheating in casinos a listed crime in the state of CA. fine up to 10k and up to 1 yr in the slammer) they turn findings over to some criminal division in DOJ for further investigation.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:22 PM   #1893
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by bthekuta View Post
My buddy is an anchor/reporter for Fox40 (Sacramento local) and is probably going to do a story on this. He needs people to interview. DM me if you have personal knowledge.
!!!!!!!
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:23 PM   #1894
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PTLou View Post
please either stop being a moron and showing how little you know about this or better yet just gtfo.

This has nothing to do with the FBI.

1) CGCB opens investigation based on a phone call from anyone.
.
2) They send investigators to interview everyone. If they find violations of gaming code they fine, take away licenses of staff or rooms, or other things. I have no idea what gaming regs are for live streams are in CA or if Stones followed rules. But thats where they start along with interviewing everyone. Whoever calls will I am sure point them to this thread as well.

2) If they find violations of CA criminal code (cheating in casinos a listed crime in the state of CA. fine up to 10k and up to 1 yr in the slammer) they turn findings over to CA DOJ.
dont feed the trolls. already reported him. I hope he gets banned asap.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:24 PM   #1895
wheatrich
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Wice View Post
"Won the most at seat 2" is bs, he just plays the most games from seat 2 so of course he wins the most from seat 2.

"Bone conduction speaker" could be a thing, but I'm neutral to it. You have to explain why does he need to hear something when hes already looking at his phone. It cant be any other kind of electronic because he would just keep it in his pocket, also I don't think the pictures are conclusive it can be just the tag or he put it on wrong. One thing that is pro bone conduction speaker is that it seems that Justin needs to be in the casino for him to be cheating. That to me suggests that the phone system is not enough, because it seems like that could be operated alone.
They banned phones at the table at one point supposedly. If the phone was the main reason before--he would've used another option and that one has more evidence than others atm. Easily could be multiple methods over time.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:24 PM   #1896
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxeth View Post
Mike only winning when Justin is in town and out of the booth, combined with the hat theory looks pretty air tight. It’s simple enough that they don’t need real it knowledge and it’s effective.
This is one where he won and Justin was in booth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=t59ddLJv6mo

The SnG that he came in 2nd Justin was in booth, there is another where cashes out $6k+ in a stream that Justin commented on.

Maybe when Justin is out of town, the inside person in production is moved to a different role and can't help him on those days.

Last edited by WFKS; 10-03-2019 at 03:24 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:26 PM   #1897
FateCZ
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Can someone explain this to me? It doesn't make sense at all.
His behaviour and playstyle don't make any sense if you look at it from a standard educated poker view.
But if you watch any of his session and assume from the beggining that he knows the cards of his opponents, then all his moves on every street start to make an absolute sense. Every hand.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:27 PM   #1898
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

So, is he a cheater 100%? After 76 pages of "he's a cheater 100%" I'm still not sure
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:30 PM   #1899
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich View Post
They banned phones at the table at one point supposedly. If the phone was the main reason before--he would've used another option and that one has more evidence than others atm. Easily could be multiple methods over time.
there's quite a few examples though when he's fiddling with his hat and also has the phone in his lap, and conspicuously looking down. possibly a back-up, or bluetooth problems?

also, the phone ban in response to the 'investigation' has been mentioned quite a few times - but it also seems like it was not really enforced, or slipped very soon afterwards. Does anyone have a time line for the supposed ban? the 'investigation' was in March this year?
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:30 PM   #1900
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
Nah, I enjoy stupid people saying stupid things. I am awaiting updates on the following:

1. What the FBI said when it is reported that a guy was cheating at a card game and you want to them to open an investigation
2. Whether Stones fires its employees for cause based on this thread
3. What the past jurists takes are on the evidence
4. How smiles and laughing is significant proof of cheating
5. Whether the Ca Gaming Commission shuts down Stones
6. The standard deviation of crotch glances per hands won
7. Whether Joey, Dougie or crotch dude win the Inspector Clouseau award
8. Outcome of Hatgate

Me also. See you in three days. And stay out of this thread for good. Thanks.
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