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Old 10-03-2019, 09:29 AM   #1726
Halo_P1
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
So, no you have no calculations? What was Mike's standard deviation? Pot rippers?

Potrippers is 7.29 standard deviations. So this number is the 100th percentile minus 8.5493E-11. For me to calculate Mikes true STD deviation would require to know how deep the effective stacks were at every point he won pots. Which is information too trivial to estimate, and it’s reasonable to assume given he has more than 2x the WR of potripper, we can at least comparatively estimate that he is on multiple consecutive powerball lotteries level of luck.

Last edited by Halo_P1; 10-03-2019 at 09:51 AM.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:30 AM   #1727
kerr
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by timmay28 View Post
Seems inevitable that all electronics will hafta be banned from casino poker tables. I’m unsure whether that’s necessarily good or bad for the overall health of live
Only for live streams, not for the dozens of other poker tables in the room

Hats have to go too. LATB should enforce all rules that Stones should.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:31 AM   #1728
hAmThEkIlLeR
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post


Statistics are hard proof. Winning at the rate he did without cheating would require luck on the order of winning several consecutive lotteries. It's ridiculous to say 250+ hours of video are not proof.
Improbable does not mean impossible, and there are plenty of examples that show this.


Whats the probability of Mike winning all those sessions? Do we have a value for that?

What's the probability of Erik Seidel's 2008-2011 run? Do we have a value for that?


What value leads us to conclude a player is cheating beyond a reasonable doubt, and what value is acceptable for a good and very lucky good-faith actor?



Not being sarcastic here, just admittedly ignorant.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:35 AM   #1729
Javoc
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

STONES AND ACR HAVE MUTUAL EMPLOYEES - IF YOU HAVE MONEY ON ACR PULL IT OFF NOW WHILE YOU CAN. AT-LEAST TAKE OFF 95% IF YOU HAVE NOWHERE ELSE TO PLAY.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:40 AM   #1730
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

People, it seems maybe even some attorneys on here, tend to underestimate a jury's ability to comprehend complex subjects. Take DNA for example. DNA is incredibly complex. It's also not 100%. Quite often suspects are convicted (or exonerated) on DNA evidence that shows probabilities like 1 in 8 billion, or 1 in 13 billion. These are not 100% probabilities, and defense attorneys try all the time to submit that to juries, but it almost never works. It doesn't work because juries are made aware of what the standard is for reasonable doubt. It doesn't have to be 100%.

I mentioned how complex DNA evidence can be at trial. Experts will testify about "the allele 10 at the locus CSF1PO was observed 103 times in a population of 432 alleles," or "9 of 13 loci were a match..." What happens is, the jurors listen patiently to the prosecutor and defense argue for hours until the expert witness is asked the final question, "in your opinion, does the DNA match?" Or something along those lines, he says yes, and the jury gets it. The expert witness comes across as intelligent and knowledgeable and that's enough, despite the fact that they have no idea what's being said during the highly technical testimony.

That's how this could be tried successfully. Statistics about the probability of these results would be bantered about, expert statisticians would go into depth about standard deviations and probability, and eventually the question would be posed, "what is the likelihood of achieving these results without cheating," and the expert will state something along the lines of 3 consecutive Powerball wins, and the jury, most of whom probably play the Powerball every week, will understand that that is close enough to meet the standards of reasonable doubt.

I suspect a good prosecutor with good experts would have no trouble getting a conviction in this case.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:41 AM   #1731
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by mrtoodles View Post
The examples I've seen where cards were "misread" all involve the system displaying whatever the player had LAST hand. It can happen selectively, i.e. it will display last hand's cards for some players but not all.

In the example you give, the hand before, we only see a few hands. But clear as day, Kevin displays as having AdKh in the previous hand, and then displays as having AdKh again in the following hand.

Your play the prior hand is consistent with K7o -- overlimp multiway on the button in a straddled pot, fold to flop bet from the straddle.

I'm still trying to find a "rfid misread" instance where a player's cards are displayed incorrectly and I can definitively say that the misdisplayed hand isn't simply the player's holding on a prior hand.

So far as I've seen, a "misread" player's actual hand can't just be any two cards that happen to make his/her play more believable. It doesn't look like an RFID error so much as a software problem of some sort.
thanks for this, makes sense. reading through the thread this was one of the few loose ends that would now seem tied up.

Real old skool thread this btw. Respect to everyone who has put in the hours unravelling this, and the original whistle blower. Sincere commiserations to everyone who has played in this obviously crooked game, must be an awful feeling now seeing the sad truth of it all.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:44 AM   #1732
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Do we know if Mike Postle has a criminal history? Has he been in jail before? If so what for?
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:54 AM   #1733
DonkDonkDonkDonk
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

He really turns his hat backwards when he isn't cheating? How stupid can you be?
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:57 AM   #1734
DevoGKT
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkDonkDonkDonk View Post
He really turns his hat backwards when he isn't cheating? How stupid can you be?


This is him naturally so he doesn’t even think about it. Everything about him when he’s blatantly cheating is so UNNATURAL..


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Old 10-03-2019, 09:58 AM   #1735
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Loctus View Post
hahaha this is amazing, good work bourrc9

It has previously been concluded that Mike Postle's godmode turned off in the summer when Justin K was in Vegas.

Then first week of august, Justin goes to Australia for a week and suddenly... Mike is making mistakes again:

Loopy preflop call if he knows the holecards


Loopy flopbet, if he knows the holecards (we know a cheating Mike would check)


Doesn't steal this pot at any point when everyone has air




Seriously, we can basically conclude that Justin Kuraitis is 100% his inside man. From making up RFID lies to cover Mike's inane plays, running a "very conclusive investigation", and being away for exactly the times Mike doesn't godmode (cheat) the table, being personal friend of his, etc. Yeah. It's him. 100%.
Good job man
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:59 AM   #1736
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The sad part is we only know these guys are cheating because they are ****ing ******ed doing it. Who knows how many smart cheaters there are that aren't greedy ****s that don't win 25 consecutive sessions.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:59 AM   #1737
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by kerr View Post
JTo bomb pot, turn 3-bet 4-handed - disgusting

Mike needs to be banned from ever again setting foot in a California casino.

Stones employees and senior management need to lose their jobs.

Stones Live, currently suspended, should be permanently shut down.

No I am not joking.
ACR and stones have mutual employees. This explains alot.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:01 AM   #1738
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Total thread grunch for me. I assumed this was just another online cheating scandal until I saw Doug's video. so sry if this has all been doscussed

Question? Is the assertion that Mike has some sort of RFID reader on his body that communicates with his phone? Very doable if he had some knowledge/ access to Stones RFID system to get his reader set up in advance. Anyone know the system Stones uses? I think there are several on the market. Building custom one on your own also pretty easy. This type probably easiest to hack.

OR

is allegation that someone in booth is in on it.

Has anyone contacted CA Gaming Control Commission? Obv they have investigators on staff
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:05 AM   #1739
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loctus View Post
Just find a clip of him betting pot into the nuts or calling off his stack behind one single time and then it's over. Anyone?
If you knew hole card information it would actually be very smart to do things like this sometimes. If you go full POTRIPPER style and win with an absurd winrate you are likely to draw a lot of attention to yourself - especially on a live stream where your every action is recorded.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:06 AM   #1740
jjjou812
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halo_P1 View Post

Potrippers is 7.29 standard deviations. So this number is the 100th percentile minus 8.5493E-11. For me to calculate Mikes true STD deviation would require to know how deep the effective stacks were at every point he won pots. Which is information too trivial to estimate, and it’s reasonable to assume given he has more than 2x the WR of potripper, we can at least comparatively estimate that he is on multiple consecutive powerball lotteries level of luck.
Right, the article provides two different SDs for Potripper, the first:

On October 8 I was provided various log files of tournaments that POTRIPPER played. Many were in formats that were unreadable, but I was able to view the details of a tournament played on September 13. In that tournament POTRIPPER played 41 hands, with an average of six players at the table. Assuming all players were equally skilled and played the same way, and I admit that is a big assumption, he would expect to win 7.28 hands. The number of hands he actually won was 25. That is 7.29 standard deviations above expectations.

So where are your comparable calculations for Postle?
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:09 AM   #1741
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ollieeeee View Post
If you knew hole card information it would actually be very smart to do things like this sometimes. If you go full POTRIPPER style and win with an absurd winrate you are likely to draw a lot of attention to yourself - especially on a live stream where your every action is recorded.
You're right In the first moments of this thread I thought it was a nonsensical accusation of cheating, and the post you quoted is me basically just saying "blah someone just find one really really bad play results wise and this is over"

And lucky for us, it turns out that Mike and Justin didn't figure out they needed to do really bad plays (bad as in "if he was cheating, he would never do this thing") at least semi-regularly. Instead we have 100's of hours of results wise perfect plays (including minimizing losses by tiny donkbets etc in spots where they have a strong but 2nd best hand) - and a couple of hours of somewhat bad plays (and complete lack of AMAZING plays), the times that Justin was out of town.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:15 AM   #1742
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

7pm cest, guys. Tune in.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:20 AM   #1743
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by XcrazylegsX View Post
So I was looking through streams in which Justin Kuraitis was commentating. I found roughly 15 total streams, and only one of them had Mike in it. So I decided to take a look, and I found something very intriguing.

Throughout the whole episode, I didn't find a single example where I thought Mike was clearly cheating based on his play.

I figured Justin would be in the booth for the entire stream, but to my surprise he dips out of the commentary booth from 3:22:00 to 3:48:00.
Justin leaves: https://youtu.be/GFQ531Y_KII?t=12120
Justin returns: https://youtu.be/GFQ531Y_KII?t=13680

I continued to watch the hands for anything suspicious, and something very interesting happens in a hand that takes place at the 3:54:00 mark (32 minutes after Justin leaves the commentary booth).

Preflop mike calls with 87o (nothing out of the ordinary here), but then proceeds to press down on his hat with both hands. The preflop raiser (whose cards are not read by the RFID reader in this hand) cbets 4 ways and Mike calls, and proceeds to press down on his hat with both hands again. I watched this whole stream and not once until now did I see him do this with his hat, and now he does it twice within 40 seconds??? On the turn 3 ways, it checks to Mike, who places each of his cards on the RFID reader, points to each of them, and says something to the dealer. Keep in mind that the RFID has not picked up his opponent's cards. It seems to me like he's trying to remind the guy that his cards need to go on the reader. Really suspicious stuff here. Here is the link to the hand in question:
https://youtu.be/GFQ531Y_KII?t=14040
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTLou View Post
Total thread grunch for me. I assumed this was just another online cheating scandal until I saw Doug's video. so sry if this has all been doscussed

Question? Is the assertion that Mike has some sort of RFID reader on his body that communicates with his phone? Very doable if he had some knowledge/ access to Stones RFID system to get his reader set up in advance. Anyone know the system Stones uses? I think there are several on the market. Building custom one on your own also pretty easy. This type probably easiest to hack.

OR

is allegation that someone in booth is in on it.

Has anyone contacted CA Gaming Control Commission? Obv they have investigators on staff
The consensus is that his accomplice is Justin Kuraitis the Stones TD based on the fact that Mike's godmode suddenly turns off when Justin is in Vegas or is commentating in the booth.

And yeah has anyone actually filed a formal complaint or is this like people passing an emergency on the freeway assuming someone else will call it in??
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:21 AM   #1744
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Kudos to Veronica, Joey, and several others who put in heavy hours to uncover this. I gave Mike P. the benefit of the doubt for a while, but do not any more.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:24 AM   #1745
Grind On My Mind
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Its time for Justin to issue a statement. Who would want to go to that casino and see his smug face?
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:28 AM   #1746
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

It seems very unlikely that Justin is innocent.

I wonder if Stones' new 'investigation' is gonna be led by Justin. If so, it's worthless. They need to exclude him completely from taking part in the investigation now that he's a major suspect and most likely complicit in the scam.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:29 AM   #1747
Halo_P1
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
Right, the article provides two different SDs for Potripper, the first:

On October 8 I was provided various log files of tournaments that POTRIPPER played. Many were in formats that were unreadable, but I was able to view the details of a tournament played on September 13. In that tournament POTRIPPER played 41 hands, with an average of six players at the table. Assuming all players were equally skilled and played the same way, and I admit that is a big assumption, he would expect to win 7.28 hands. The number of hands he actually won was 25. That is 7.29 standard deviations above expectations.

So where are your comparable calculations for Postle?
What’s your point I told you that potrippers level of luck was in the order of winning several powerball lotteries that’s my original statement and point that you took issue with. I even gave you his standard deviation. I don’t get why you are demanding I go over 100s of hours of tape to satisfy your unreasonable demands because you originally thought my initial statement was BS and you are trying save face. If you are willing to provide me the data I would be happy to get the stats completed on this.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:30 AM   #1748
lovedaphils
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeShowdown View Post
https://youtu.be/U5cgXtVRLR4
March 2, 2017 stones spring classic
Tournament director is Justin
Mike Postle in seat 1 wearing hat
He wins 1st place for 36k after a deal with Kerry Kiefer
who is a poker floorman at thunder valley casino 20 minutes away.
Begins final table 5th out of 9
Commentary by justin kelly aka fat train and legendary Norman Chad
Ducky is playing aka Alisha's husband from the stream when she dances in her bday game and uses her high heel as a card protector.
Mario Lopez and Rickey Evans are local crushers.
4:15 Mike gets introduced
13min gets a walk
14:30 wins flip open jams 44 vs ace 7

Could be interesting video to go thru
https://youtu.be/U5cgXtVRLR4
Every twist and turn of this I am constantly amazed.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:32 AM   #1749
Sir Donkington III
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Glad to see this shitshow coming to light and hopefully the hammer o doom cums down hard on the guys who ripped people off.

Just want to say Joe Ingram has done more for poker in the two years I've been on here with his interviews, looking into the ACR / botting / Nagy-gate issue, and now this investigation.


And hell yes, I am also glad to see that maybe now, at least for streams, phones will be banned from the table! It was always a huge gripe of mine that after folding, everyone gets on and deetdeetdeetdeetdeet txts away to find out what everyone had in a hand thirty minutes ago and trying to deduce info from that for now.

Maybe this will carry over to other huge events. Not asking for a friggin dress code, helllllll no, but no electronics and maybe no hats is a start.

Although in lieu of no hats, it'd prob better just to do an electronic scan, and then just pat the hat down with yo hand TSA style.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:34 AM   #1750
WFKS
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

There is a $550 SnG that Mike gets 2nd, Justin comments on. It's the one that Carlos accuses him of cheating.

The Aug 30, 2018 stream, Justin comments on, people say Mike doesn't run God Mode on that stream and doesn't look like he's cheating, looks like he bought in for $1k and cashed out for $6k.

A lot are saying 100% Justin is the inside man (I am not saying he's not, I have no idea).

No one else took off in June that's part of production and/or works at casino?

Why come in at all in June when your inside man is not there? We've already proven he's a greedy idiot that can't help himself when he has chance to win a pot, why would he want to lose a session?

The best theory is the Twitch Key with that Bluetooth hat, and he could have got Twitch Key from anyone at Stones (including Justin)or someone that helped setup their streaming system or a hacker.

If he has twitch Key, he could have someone at home watching live feed and telling him thru Bluetooth cap the hole cards, Maybe on the losing days, the person watching twitch had internet issues.
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