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Old 10-02-2019, 10:46 PM   #1476
a dewd
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Really? It seems like it would be pretty straight forward.



Mr Poker, in your expert opinion is X possible without cheating? No.

Mr Poker, in your expert opinion is Y possible without cheating? No.

Mr Poker, in your expert opinion is Z possible without cheating? No.



Also, expert testimony from a statistician would probably be quite useful as well.
Ok.

Under cross examination, he is asked to explain it all in detail, asking specific questions and jurors are confused.

Mr. Poker, in your expert opinion is it possible that someone with no knowledge of poker could make a single one of these calls?

Mr. Poker, is it conceivable, regardless of how small the odds, that someone could run red hot for a period of time?


Reasonable doubt achieved. Incredibly difficult case to criminally prosecute.

As someone that has dealt with false accusations firsthand, I 99.999% of the time side with the accuser....in case they are innocent. This appears to be so obvious and egregious that there really is no reasonable argument that can be made in support of Postle, from a knowledgeable poker player's aspect. Stones has some culpability here and it sure seems like this Justin character is his inside guy.

Last edited by a dewd; 10-02-2019 at 10:52 PM.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:46 PM   #1477
au4all
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
And direct evidence is always good evidence.
You illustrate the problem of using the internet to run a trial. Most people, doing most of the talking, have no idea what they're talking about.

You are not correct. You could walk across the street to talk to a neighbor for thirty minutes. Then you could walk back home and find all your chocolate chip cookies are gone and your eight year old, who was home alone, and who loves eating cookies, says he's not hungry enough to eat dinner. That's circumstantial evidence that he ate the cookies. It's good evidence.

He could tell you that he saw the dog eating the cookies. That's direct evidence. It's poor evidence.

Some circumstantial evidence is good. Some direct evidence is poor.

The issue with circumstantial evidence is that people tend to assume that lots of it signals guilt --- even if all of it is poor.

I doubt a jury would convict someone based on Joe Ingram's type of evidence, that someone folded top pair to a shove in a protected pot. They'd have to be pretty ignorant to agree with him.

Importantly the lack of evidence (circumstantial or direct) is not proof of innocence.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:47 PM   #1478
SrslySirius
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HarryKane09 View Post
During the 88/TT house over house hand, I went thru the video.

Justin Kuraitis/JFK on YouTube chat said that he spoke to Mike and he said the graphic was wrong and he actually had 78.

However there was no point where Justin came to the table to speak to Mike during the delayed 30 mins. This was also a phone in lap hand, and as we know he doesn't text or make his phone visible during these sessions.
Do you have a link to this? Justin was admitting to being the person who relayed this information to the announcers? If we can get a screenshot or clip of him saying this, that puts him in the producer's booth.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:50 PM   #1479
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Old 10-02-2019, 10:50 PM   #1480
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Greed made him/them push the enveloppe just a little too far.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:50 PM   #1481
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

+1

Why would anyone need access to live hole cards during stream? There should be no communication from that box, and also only hardwires.

Do they have cam and RFID?
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:50 PM   #1482
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Just so unbelievably greedy.
This is what most scammers and cheats do - they get bolder and bolder the longer they get away with it. He's likely a very narcissistic person and probably feels like the rules don't apply to him, that everyone else deserves it, or cheating players out of a few thousands bucks isn't a big deal.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:51 PM   #1483
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by NuklearWinter View Post


HEY GUYS DON'T MIND ME, JUST SCRATCHING MY HEAD HERE WHILE I THINK ABOUT CALLING A 3BET WITH 95o!

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/348363451?t=04h10m40s
wow.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:53 PM   #1484
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by NuklearWinter View Post
This is what most scammers and cheats do - they get bolder and bolder the longer they get away with it. He's likely a very narcissistic person and probably feels like the rules don't apply to him, that everyone else deserves it, or cheating players out of a few thousands bucks isn't a big deal.
You can see if from each session he makes more and more , just like he’s testing everyone’s limits, to the point where he’s just like YOLO f u all I’m god you can’t stop me
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:54 PM   #1485
HLOchi
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

There are a lot of legal opinions coming from people who are not lawyers nor do they know what they are talking about.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:54 PM   #1486
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Damn, i would like to see Mike playing in the Bike stream, some random 1-3$ or 2-5$ holdem, for 5 hours, without any phone, hat, glasses, hoody.

Damn i would like to see, his majestic reads, chkraising etc. That would be great .
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:54 PM   #1487
DonWon
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by excaxante View Post
wow.
That's the signal for "Question Mark."
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:00 PM   #1488
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HLOchi View Post
There are a lot of legal opinions coming from people who are not lawyers nor do they know what they are talking about.
Impossible, this is NVG
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:01 PM   #1489
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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There are a lot of legal opinions coming from people who are not lawyers nor do they know what they are talking about.
And? Your point being?
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:03 PM   #1490
zica
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
You certainly can be convicted on circumstantial evidence. But the type of circumstantial evidence we're talking about in this thread is either "weak" (MP has a background in RFID) or very hard to break down in layman terms (winrates, statistical probabilities, etc.). Statisticians/mathematicians, I would imagine, make terrible "expert witnesses": they're too smart and certain statistical analysis will just go over even an intelligent person's head. Even if a statistician can confidently say wining 30 sessions in a row or achieving x hundred dollar per hour winrate at low/mid stakes is something like 1 in 200 million. A good defense lawyer will just ask "what is the probability of winning powerball?" The answer being something like 1 in 300 million. At which point the defense has brought into play a very understandable form of reasonable doubt. MP's winrate (assuming 1 in 200 million was accurate) is actually easier than winning Powerball. This is all just speculation and mental masturbation. Point being, charges are often laid with a combination of good evidence. And direct evidence is always good evidence.
I don't want to belabor but... we're not talking about random events like a lottery as though the complaint is that Mike keeps getting dealt AA but that his decisions are almost always perfect based on what his opponents are holding(for large money decisions-not usually preflop).

Regarding his win rate, it's not that it's unlikely but that it's impossible in an honest game. How does one prove it's impossible, I don't know but I would show the court honest play and honest games. Yes, difficult to educate folks, I agree. Anyway... thanks for the reply and you may be right.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:04 PM   #1491
DonWon
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Let's see how he plays from here on out with the FEDs watching his ass. If he continues to win, maybe he's stupid or just good. If he starts to lose, we can all agree.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:07 PM   #1492
AlanBostick
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
Iv seen a lot of this guy on stream and he is legimately sick, seems like a bona fide live crusher. Would love to play with him in person. Doesnt he reguarly play games 25/50 and up? Would be shocked if he doesnt get a ton of people vouching for him.

Also his crusher advantage is likely amplified in his home game because he knows most/all of the players well.

Anyways, i think cheating suspicions jave to at least be treated seriously given his track record, though i dont know much of what he plays off stream.
That's pretty much how I thought of him before the scandal broke. After watching a bunch of the hands and reading through lots of analysis, there is no doubt in my mind that he is a cheat.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:09 PM   #1493
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

is that hat picture for real? loooooool
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:13 PM   #1494
HarryKane09
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
Do you have a link to this? Justin was admitting to being the person who relayed this information to the announcers? If we can get a screenshot or clip of him saying this, that puts him in the producer's booth.
Yes

from this stream at about 27 mins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vaF0kwjQhg&t=1638s



The commentary and chat was going on about the insane flat call and JFK was there with the 'info' within 30 seconds. JFK is Justin - if you go to his channel you see his going sober Vlogs.

It might be worth anyone who is looking thru all these old streams to skim the chat for whatever JFK posts.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:17 PM   #1495
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HarryKane09 View Post
The commentary and chat was going on about the insane flat call and JFK was there with the 'info' within 30 seconds. JFK is Justin - if you go to his channel you see his going sober Vlogs.
EDIT: nvm, I was thinking about another "RFID erorr" hand
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:18 PM   #1496
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by zica View Post
I don't want to belabor but... we're not talking about random events like a lottery as though the complaint is that Mike keeps getting dealt AA but that his decisions are almost always perfect based on what his opponents are holding(for large money decisions-not usually preflop).

Regarding his win rate, it's not that it's unlikely but that it's impossible in an honest game. How does one prove it's impossible, I don't know but I would show the court honest play and honest games. Yes, difficult to educate folks, I agree. Anyway... thanks for the reply and you may be right.
Was just thinking exactly the same thing.

Poker is a game of some skill, unlike Powerball is which is all luck
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:18 PM   #1497
jal300
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by zica View Post
I don't want to belabor but... we're not talking about random events like a lottery as though the complaint is that Mike keeps getting dealt AA but that his decisions are almost always perfect based on what his opponents are holding(for large money decisions-not usually preflop).

Regarding his win rate, it's not that it's unlikely but that it's impossible in an honest game. How does one prove it's impossible, I don't know but I would show the court honest play and honest games. Yes, difficult to educate folks, I agree. Anyway... thanks for the reply and you may be right.
I agree it's impossible to have the winrate that we see with MP. But a prosecutor can't, more accurately, shouldn't bring up something being "impossible" as evidence that someone is guilty of a crime. Once a prosecutor brings up something being "impossible" they will then have to prove that it is in fact "impossible". Something being "impossible" is akin to absolute certainty: you do not want to present (at trial) the idea that something is absolutely certain. Beyond reasonable doubt is already a tough bar to clear, proving something as impossible would be even tougher without rock solid direct evidence. Circumstantial evidence is a good starting point for a proper criminal investigation as it can establishes probable cause. Hopefully more direct evidence can be uncovered with a proper criminal investigation. At which point charges can be more confidently laid: and if need be, have a stronger case for a trial if you can't get the accused to own up to it or negotiate some sort of plea.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:18 PM   #1498
zica
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
Do you have a link to this? Justin was admitting to being the person who relayed this information to the announcers? If we can get a screenshot or clip of him saying this, that puts him in the producer's booth.
So does the RFID feed go directly into the graphics program and onto stream? Then how would anyone know it was wrong? If it's copied by a person from the feed into the stream then all the talk about RFIDs not being wrong is irrelevant because we would just claim human error.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:20 PM   #1499
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
Iv seen a lot of this guy on stream and he is legimately sick, seems like a bona fide live crusher. Would love to play with him in person. Doesnt he reguarly play games 25/50 and up? Would be shocked if he doesnt get a ton of people vouching for him.

Also his crusher advantage is likely amplified in his home game because he knows most/all of the players well.

Anyways, i think cheating suspicions jave to at least be treated seriously given his track record, though i dont know much of what he plays off stream.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
That's pretty much how I thought of him before the scandal broke. After watching a bunch of the hands and reading through lots of analysis, there is no doubt in my mind that he is a cheat.
Could you imagine the kind of edge this guy could get in a HOME GAME though?

He's obviously the best in the world, but I would assume he'd have a GREATER EDGE.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:20 PM   #1500
david negus
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Angle shooter View Post
The true problem with prosecuting this case is that - the % of the population smart enough to understand how improbable Mike’s run is, is significantly less than the % of the population that is smart enough to get out of jury duty.

Avg 2p2 forum user: ~ 115 IQ
How to get out of jury duty ~ 100 Iq
Jurors <85 IQ
i got called for jury duty once. some guy was giving all the right answers and was trying to be selected. i asked him why after and he said that his job will pay him and he wanted a break.

prob still not the brightest bunch though overall.
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