Are people still seriously debating if he cheated? He had double the winrate of someone who could literally see his opponent’s hole cards. He was making 1000 bb/100 pot ripper was making 500bb/100.

The winrate was always very suspicious, but I didn’t realize how suspicious it was until I had the opportunity recently to play in what had to be one of the softest regularly running games in the U.S. Two guys with deep pockets would regularly raise blind and just play awful post flop. There was only one other competent pro in the lineup. The minimum buy in for the game was 200 bb’s so it was deep as well. I made around 200bb/100 in that game over a sample of around 10k hands. I’m not the greatest pro in the world, but lifetime I’m over 10 bb/hr at 2/5 and over 10bb/100 at 50-100NL so I’m at least competent. The idea that he could beat his game for 1000bb/100 without cheating is absurd.

I put it in a poker variance calculator. Even if we use a standard deviation of 200, and even if he’s way way way better than me and could make 400bb/100, the odds of winning 1000bb/100 is 0.000%. It can’t happen. No one is making that much without cheating.

The lines he took would also be absolutely horrendous in a lot of cases if he didn’t know his opponents hold cards. He plays like an absolute fish half the time. Some of the lines I take in live poker would admittedly look fishy but I’m doing them as an exploit. I’m not the GTO police, I understand why people might take weird lines, but his ridiculous lines were just straight up spew.

Has anyone even found a hand yet where he made one of his ridiculous spew bluffs when his opponent was super nutted? I don’t care how good he is at live reads, even if he’s the ****ing GOAT, the second best player in the world bluffs into the nuts all the time. He’s not 10x better than the best player in the world.

More like his Carma hit a Dogma, amirite?

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The people still debating if he cheated are not swayed by such logic. They essentially argue that any statistical analysis cannot completely exclude the possibility of chance producing his results, even if that possibility can be shown to be arbitrarily small. They argue that he wasn't so much on a heater with his cards, but instead with his decisions, either always guessing right about the strength of his opponent's hand by pure chance, or by sick soul reads, or both. That is, if you're really good at hand reading, but not perfect, it just takes a little luck to get them all correct.

Also most or all of the statistical analysis in this thread, including yours above, is not terribly rigorous. This may be because we don't have all the data in an easy format. For example, what was the sample size used to determine Mike's win rate? So there is work that can be done here for the mathematically inclined, but I don't think it's needed. What convinces me is the coincidence between the godlike play and the suspicious behavior, as well as the absence of godlike play when the suspicious behavior is not there.

I strongly disagree with them, but I guess if he didn’t play his hands in a ridiculous manner it might have merit. And that’s what initially convinced me and what I mentioned at the bottom of my wall of text. For all of the ridiculous spew lines he takes, why is it always against the middle or bottom of people’s ranges? He literally never from what I’ve seen punts into the nuts or effective nuts. Why is it so hard to find someone with a like 80% VPIP making the occasional bluffing mistake or incorrect hero call? I think I saw like one hand where he had like second nuts vs nuts where he called incorrectly called a normal bet size because it probably would’ve looked way too ridiculous to fold. His play is also really nonsensical and inconsistent. His play is perfectly correlated with his opponent’s hole cards as opposed to any kind of general exploit or strategy.

I’ve played thousands of hours of live poker, including some T/20 so I’m playing with the occasional good player and it’s rare to even see someone in one session make all the right decisions like Postle does. I’ve never seen anyone do it on any kind of consistent basis where they just get every bluff through and never call down incorrectly

His play wouldn’t make him the Michael Jordan of poker, he wouldn’t just be the GOAT. He’s playing on the level of if Wilt Chamberlain has Steph Curry’s shooting and free throw ability. This would be the most dominant I’ve seen any human be at any activity.

800 bb/hr would also be like $1300/hr at 2/5 which helps put it into context. How many people here have ever even had an 8 hour 10k 2/5 session? I’ve seen it done a few times but it’s pretty damn rare. Imagine doing that every day.

What's the latest update on this?
Has his money been confiscated? Is he in jail yet?

Yes, they took all his money and put him in jail.

Veronica owns Stones now. MacLaw is celebrating their $30m victory. Marle's suit is still ongoing.

Tbh, Mac's tweeting kinda wore on me.

Same thing that happened to every other poker player who did something scummy over the years.

He got staked for a $10k tourney and won it?

Was she his wife during the scandal!?!?

obv she was

now the gravy train stopped rolling and she wants 50% of that sweet scam money she's hoping is hidden somewhere

No. He had to stay in California because of her otherwise he would've been in Vegas crushing the biggest games there.

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Can't say specifics. All I say is if you knew, you'd be sorely disappointed.

This should all be a matter of public record IF it goes to court. (and that is a BIG IF) As there are no minors involved nothing should be sealed by the courts.

But chances of this seeing the inside of a courtroom are about 10%

No, it’s been sealed by the court along with the Epstein stuff. But stay on top of this thing if it goes to court!

Is this a 'big deal' or a 'meh' ?

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-new...ng-allegations

So Mike is paying all legal fees and agreeing not to play at stones ever again apparently.

Way more than I thought would happen.

Source?

And Marle Cordeiro's lawsuit against Postle filed by VerStandig in Nevada has been thrown out for lack of jurisdiction.


Article

Dang, not much is going good for Marbles.

Ah, so THAT'S why this came up:



Meant to visit this thread after seeing that, but forgot.

Depends on her moral code.

If Mike has no problem bamboozling other humans out of large quantities of money live on the Internet, there's a good chance she was just another one of his victims at home in different ways.

I mean, there's no way this is the first sh*tty thing he's ever done up to this point in his life.

Never trust a man who dresses as generic as Mike. He should be wearing a red devil costume but instead he dresses like milktoast middle-class sports fan cornball dad #5,192,592

Stones presumably paid the plaintiffs some, but probably about actual losses. The plaintiffs weren't in great negotiating shape after the first case was thrown out.

I'm not allowed to say what the the terms are but I can say that this is not one of them, unless you are referring to something else. Feel free to drop the sauce