Quote:
Originally Posted by RosaParks1
A good way to consider how a jury case against Postle would go is to consider how an average person is going to react to this case ... most jurors are sitting there as if they're being told a story ... the story is generally too long, and not about something they care about :
"a guy is accused of cheating in a poker game using technology to gain knowledge of his opponents cards"
at this point you believe it's possible, otherwise it wouldn't even be here in court, but you want proof
"a detailed explanation of standard deviations and variance and stuff you may or may not understand"
cool great, zzz ... do you have any proof?
"he won tons and tons of money and there are situations on film which experts in this game indicate are proof he was cheating"
cool glad they did the work i'm not watching all that **** ... how did he do it?
"we don't exactly know, here are our guesses"
hmm that sucks, but yeah he prolly did it
If this seems oversimplified, it's because you're looking at it with an in-depth understanding of poker, which makes it fairly obvious he was cheating, or you're looking at it trying to play devil's advocate to find ways he could potentially get off ... people who are unwilling to do any critical thinking are going to go with the majority, and people who want to do the extra work to really understand this are going to see the writing on the wall ... when's the last time you heard someone actually admit they're confused, or respond to a query with "i don't know actually" ... it's optimistic to think that people are going to be both unable to understand the evidence AND willing to admit that ... Postle is beat-city
Hi Rosa:
I don't agree with part of your analysis. Why would a statistician bother with an explanation of the standard deviation? I certainly wouldn't and I had a career as a professional statistician.
What I would do is look at the most extreme case. Probability theory tells us that out of a large number of people someone has to be the luckiest, and there has been a lot of poker shows where a lot of different people have been filmed playing poker.
Then concede that Postle may have been that luckiest person.
Then discuss what you think the luckiest person's play would look like.
Then compare Postle's play to that of the (mythical) luckiest person.
QED
This should thoroughly confuse any jury and confused juries don't vote to convict.
Best wishes,
Mason