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Old 01-26-2020, 03:24 PM   #10401
ComeOnNow
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Produce some more hands then. Because that one is him running a max exploitation line with a reasonable estimate of a backdoor draw's odds.
Good information: Ok, true that when cards are scanned we can assume, that information is not there, when Postle raises.

Then backdoor flush: not enough odds for that, since turn bet.

Will find more hands from another stream.
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Old 01-26-2020, 03:34 PM   #10402
Wilbury Twist
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Not sure we can have a debate with someone that can't put together coherent sentences in English.
This is why I'm thinking it's a troll account.

And sure, I get it: English is not every 2+2ers first language. However, the broken English in every post is the made-up style you see in low-budget movies or bad sitcoms. (Sort of like the old trope of bad Spanish, when people would just add an "O" at the end of every word.)

All this said...

When I first started following this saga, that KK vs T8dd hand was the one example that worked against the overall cheating allegations, even when accounting for implied odds. By the flop, he would need to get about 25-to-1 on that flop call to make it correct to continue chasing the backdoor flush.

At the time, it made me wonder if he didn't necessarily peek at the hole cards at the very start of any given hand, but rather waited until later streets (which would also explain that 88 vs TT, boat over boat hand). Hell, I've always said that a "smart cheater" would play as normal as possible, and only employ the cheating methods in the event of a key decision. That way, things like VPIP and AF would look pretty reasonable.

I'm also wondering if he wasn't always in God mode within a given session. At no point in that T8 vs KK hand do we observe the "crotch stare," in contrast to the one he does at 5:12:23 of that same stream during the infamous hand with Marle Cordeiro. The Google spreadsheet showed "Yes" or "No" on the Godmode criterion, when in fact it's easily possible that Postle turned to it midway through a session (as we witnessed thanks to Gumpnstein on that July 1, 2018 stream).

Spoiler:

Last edited by Wilbury Twist; 01-26-2020 at 03:36 PM. Reason: Jeez, now MY English is suspect.
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Old 01-26-2020, 03:43 PM   #10403
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I thought that those late sessions were where we thought he was using the "headset in the hat" system. But I admit that I didn't check through the rest of it to identify anything specific about it.

It's possible that he didn't look at the hole card information right away. Which would explain that hand's flop call. It's also pretty possible that he didn't know the proper odds off the top of his head, or misread the stack sizes. A quick at the table "I'm getting 15:1, that's enough to draw" thought process wouldn't be surprising to me based on everything else we've seen him do.

Either way, a couple of hands where he's not cheating do not negate the obvious crotch stare soul read river plays.
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Old 01-26-2020, 03:55 PM   #10404
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX5ccjVEapY

Unoptimal plays if hole cards are known after PF action:
(44:00) Flop raise 250$
(1:14) not bet flop or raise turn.
(1:26) River bet 245$, and call to 520$ with lower flush.
(1:46:10) Turn bet 205$ with 3 outer (+4 to chop)
(2:15:15) AJ flop fold to 300$ while best hand and 40% equity.

Probable missed some while fastly scanned through 1.5h of play.

And so on. I would be quite suprised, if there's not hands
like these from Postle in every stream.
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Old 01-26-2020, 04:17 PM   #10405
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeOnNow View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX5ccjVEapY

Unoptimal plays if hole cards are known after PF action:
(44:00) Flop raise 250$
(1:14) not bet flop or raise turn.
(1:26) River bet 245$, and call to 520$ with lower flush.
(1:46:10) Turn bet 205$ with 3 outer (+4 to chop)
(2:15:15) AJ flop fold to 300$ while best hand and 40% equity.

Probable missed some while fastly scanned through 1.5h of play.

And so on. I would be quite suprised, if there's not hands
like these from Postle in every stream.
You know this isn't working, right.

Nobody is convinced by a new account made solely to defend Mike Postle.

Mike Postle cheated and got caught because he is both a terrible cheater and person.
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Old 01-26-2020, 04:19 PM   #10406
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

You know you can timestamp the link, right?

Flop bet $250 with 2 pair? The K5 hand isn't wrong in any way. Calls $45 pre with a suited hand that's actually ahead.

Raise with KJ, checking flop is fine to induce action on later streets. Folding the turn? OK. So? He's eating.

23 suited? He's eating and not paying attention.

The $205 turn bet could be to set up the river play.

The AJ is clearly wrong.

This looks like one of the "not-cheating" sessions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2044248290


There are sessions where he is clearly cheating based on the play. And there are sessions where for some reason he does not have the hole card information. There has been speculation that these corresponded to times when JK was out of town. (Not sure if that's been confirmed.) But either way there's a clear difference in his play style and demeanor at the table between sessions.

Last edited by Angrist; 01-26-2020 at 04:25 PM. Reason: Fixed link
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Old 01-26-2020, 04:37 PM   #10407
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

There’s gonna be at least 1 new account every week posting to defend that clown and his actions until there’s some major news. The Ignore button is our best friend until then.




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Old 01-26-2020, 04:53 PM   #10408
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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There’s gonna be at least 1 new account every week posting to defend that clown and his actions until there’s some major news. The Ignore button is our best friend until then.
Yes, forums have Ignore capabilities for good reason.

Generally speaking the mods are not going to ban new accounts defending Postle unless they do not post in good faith (of course, there is a fine line there that is sometimes difficult to discern).
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Old 01-26-2020, 05:20 PM   #10409
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeOnNow View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX5ccjVEapY

Unoptimal plays if hole cards are known after PF action:
(44:00) Flop raise 250$
(1:14) not bet flop or raise turn.
(1:26) River bet 245$, and call to 520$ with lower flush.
(1:46:10) Turn bet 205$ with 3 outer (+4 to chop)
(2:15:15) AJ flop fold to 300$ while best hand and 40% equity.

Probable missed some while fastly scanned through 1.5h of play.

And so on. I would be quite suprised, if there's not hands
like these from Postle in every stream.
Thank you for posting these - what is different about hands 2,3,4,5 compared to other Postle hands on stream??? Notice when he doesn't stare deep into his crotch, he doesn't play like a God. You pointed out 4 questionable hands Postle played and this is what we should see in most of the sessions he plays with the style he has. There should be many hands like this BUT there isn't which is exactly the point. He is sitting back, eating food, has someone standing near him, no crotch look in those hands.

Nice work


These hands are also from recent Postle sessions when the allegations were known to him although he says he found out the day everyone else did.

As you said, you would be quite surprised if there weren't hands like these from every Postle stream. I felt the same way.
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Old 01-26-2020, 05:30 PM   #10410
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey View Post
Thank you for posting these - what is different about hands 2,3,4,5 compared to other Postle hands on stream??? Notice when he doesn't stare deep into his crotch, he doesn't play like a God.
Ok. I'll watch next those god mode streams. Basicly when PLO is taken out, non god mode sessions are taken out we are talking like 1.5k hands of live poker? Assuming less than 15 hands are dealed hourly. Have to be even less than that.
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Old 01-26-2020, 05:33 PM   #10411
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

You can watch some of the PLO sessions as well. You watch all the streams and let us know how many hands we are talking - you're on the case now. Will be great information to know. You are very early in on your research - get back to us when you watch 40 hours of play.

I encourage you to watch my last series of videos on Postle where I went over every hand to try to find similar plays as you linked to above. You have a lot of research to do to be fully caught up.

All the questions and thoughts you are having, I had as well when I first started watching.

Last edited by ChicagoJoey; 01-26-2020 at 05:45 PM.
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Old 01-26-2020, 09:43 PM   #10412
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey View Post
You can watch some of the PLO sessions as well. You watch all the streams and let us know how many hands we are talking - you're on the case now. Will be great information to know. You are very early in on your research - get back to us when you watch 40 hours of play.

I encourage you to watch my last series of videos on Postle where I went over every hand to try to find similar plays as you linked to above. You have a lot of research to do to be fully caught up.

All the questions and thoughts you are having, I had as well when I first started watching.
I think Mike already watched all of it in person!
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Old 01-27-2020, 01:13 AM   #10413
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

ComeOnNow, I really hope you are just trying to be a troll here.

Your arguments are beyond weak. Sure you can cherry pick a few hands out of thousands that make show Postle making a bad play when his opponents has a better hand, however the number of hands where Postle makes a terrible but correct play are countless. Joey showed us many, and if he went back and reviewed the streams again I would bet he would find even more.

Put this in perspective, the same guy who lays down top pair/kicker when beat, commit the minimum amount of chips on a nut flush vs straight flush hand, ect...will also call with 10 high when it is correct over and over again.

It is absolute insanity or he knows what his opponent cards or possibly just simple help without knowing the opponents cards. For example his accomplice could come of with a simple color code system, like red means fold, green go all in, orange to value bet(like 1/2 pot), purple for pot bet, white to check. All his accomplice would have to do is text the color or say the color after he had to switch to the bone conducting headphones.

It also is highly suspicious that he would leave as soon as the stream was done and the RFID deck was put away, especially given these were often very good games with some really big fish that would bleed chips. No legitimate poker pro would quit with the fish were biting so good.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:01 AM   #10414
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

From a practical point of view, does anyone actually know if the lawsuit has any merit? Perhaps someone with actual gaming regulation and law experience. I could have missed already that though, I haven't read every post.

Wouldn't the venue and regulating authority have jurisdiction over everything up to turning Postle over for any criminal charge, and didn't Stones say, "we checked and there was no cheating?" The appeals process for this may involve the state gambling board or whatever, but it would be spelled out, and outside the general legal process.

Internet detectives are great and all, and I am 100% convinced the guy cheated, but I really think this whole thing is finished, Postle's reputation is shot, and that's going to be the end of it.

Except for this thread, which will live on forever, ComeOnNow.
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Old 01-27-2020, 10:37 AM   #10415
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Well he’s been served, has no lawyer yet, and has to respond by 2/21. I expect that deadline will move out once he gets a lawyer.


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Old 01-27-2020, 11:55 AM   #10416
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I think we are making progress as ComeonNow seems to have figured out that HH exist and are a thing. Since he is now referring to them. Even if they are to try and site examples for the defense.

I never thought he'd even get that far.
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Old 01-27-2020, 01:42 PM   #10417
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeOnNow View Post
1) Crotch staring theory: Is this theory combined to theory that Postle have some kind of brain damage with a short term memory loss? If not why stare, when typically there is only one opponent in hand and in hold'em players are dealt with two cards? Not hard to remember to anyone with half functioning brain. One or two fast looks are enough no need to stare forever.

2) Theory that he is cheating because of statistic: There is red- and blue line variance. This theory only holds if it is unlikely enough to run that hot to win as much. If it's like one in a trillion, then it's clear. One in a million and we are at least very close.

At the moment: We don't know true winning amount and thus not know true winrate. And we don't know variance. There is only speculation based on bad information.

My take: Postle's winning are inside the range that one can win by running super hot during like 10 000 hands we are talking here. Could be that I'm wrong, and I have no problems with that at all. If I'm wrong I'm not a way off. It's like it's a realm of possibility to win 50bb/100, but Postle won 65bb/100 during 10 000 hands (assuming that we convert winrates better known NL variant so that they are equivalent to games with no antes, bomb pots etc.). I have no money in line here and are not emotionally invested to this at all.

3) Theory that Postle plays clearly shows that he sees his opponents hole cards: Not true at all. Just by watching stream and thinking what would be an optimal play there if you know your opponents hole cards reveals that. So, this theory only holds, if we assume that Postle sees holecards and is hiding that information by playing a way that it is not evident.

4) Postle's plays clearly reveals that he is cheating: Problem here is that if someone with Youtube poker channel with a million followers would make video where Garrett Adelsteins would be accused as cheater, most of the poker world would believe. Because it's not about evidence, but popularity game. Same as in the high school. It's shown here as well, when people are banned on discussion forum from saying the truth that there is a ton of lazy argumentation in this case. High school bullying in it's best.

5) There is live reads at low stakes NL especially. Very many times good live readers are able to make heroic folds / calls and raises since their opponents are so easy to read when they have it and then when they have not. If those plays are evidence then it's evidence that Daniel Negreanu is a clear cheater, when he plays WSOP. Just by closely looking how he plays shows it.

After all these no idea if Postle cheated or not. Only thing
I know is that there is a lot of very lazy argumentation in this case.


He has a point here I think. Why is he always looking in his crotch, like he cannot remember 2 cards opponents have? Bad memory or what?
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Old 01-27-2020, 01:54 PM   #10418
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Yeah this was a tight game with only 1-2 opponents seeing the flop every hand...
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Old 01-27-2020, 07:59 PM   #10419
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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From a practical point of view, does anyone actually know if the lawsuit has any merit? Perhaps someone with actual gaming regulation and law experience. I could have missed already that though, I haven't read every post.
There are a handful of people opining about the actual lawsuit. On YouTube, user Scott Sorensen did what became a two-part series on this topic:




Another attorney named David Freiheit did more of an overview of the alleged scandal and the ensuing lawsuit, but there won't be much new that you haven't seen perusing this thread. I like his style, though... kind of a fun channel in general:

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Old 01-28-2020, 12:40 AM   #10420
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by '-'_@_ View Post
From a practical point of view, does anyone actually know if the lawsuit has any merit? Perhaps someone with actual gaming regulation and law experience. I could have missed already that though, I haven't read every post.
Probably hard to collect from Postle. Stones should have some money to cough up, however.
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Old 01-28-2020, 11:23 AM   #10421
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The Washington Post just published an article on the Postle case, focusing initially on Veronica and the case in general before going into more detail about her lawyer, Mac VerStandig. There's not much new info for readers of this thread, but it's more attention from mainstream media.

The Washington Post allows a few free articles a month, so non-subscribers should be able to access the article if they haven't read many this month.
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Old 01-29-2020, 04:03 PM   #10422
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

And sometimes a server or a player might be standing behind hime or walking by and he'd be unable to look down at his crotch area safely
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Old 01-29-2020, 06:09 PM   #10423
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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The Washington Post just published an article on the Postle case, focusing initially on Veronica and the case in general before going into more detail about her lawyer, Mac VerStandig. There's not much new info for readers of this thread, but it's more attention from mainstream media.

The Washington Post allows a few free articles a month, so non-subscribers should be able to access the article if they haven't read many this month.
Thanks for sharing.

The illustrator misunderstood the situation, though... Postle stared at his own crotch, not someone else's:

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Old 01-29-2020, 11:14 PM   #10424
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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The illustrator misunderstood the situation, though... Postle stared at his own crotch, not someone else's:
LOL.

I didn’t take a very good look at this illustration before. It is interesting how VerStandig is represented almost as a superhero to poker players. He should get a huge print for his office.
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Old 01-30-2020, 11:06 AM   #10425
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Is it true Jennifer Lawrence is in negotiations to play Brill in the movie?
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