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Old 01-13-2020, 07:17 PM   #10226
jjjou812
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by TimM View Post
That's about one in two million. But what if he's a crusher who wins 3 out of 4 sessions? Then winning 21 out of 21 sessions should happen around once out of 500. Forget the stats and look at the behavior, it's clear enough.
I am not relying on the stats. The guys that don't know who invented the Martingale betting strategy but employed it somewhere between 10-21 times (my estimation of his counting ability based on digits) for bankroll ruin relies on the stats as proof of his cheating.

I agree with you that the behavior is convincing to me- he is playing with perfect information (although I admittedly have watched more of the summary compilations of the questionable hands and not the entire streams...perhaps he played some hands wrong or lost some pots).
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Old 01-13-2020, 07:21 PM   #10227
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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But in this case, the streams were fixed length sessions, correct?
Yes typically around 3-4hrs or so.
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Old 01-13-2020, 07:23 PM   #10228
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by TimM View Post
That's about one in two million. But what if he's a crusher who wins 3 out of 4 sessions? Then winning 21 out of 21 sessions should happen around once out of 500. Forget the stats and look at the behavior, it's clear enough.



But in this case, the streams were fixed length sessions, correct?
If you know the backstory. First he is a whining (depressed looking) losing player who cant seem to hit a hand.
And boom he turns into this cruching crotchlooking cto bot with memes who crushes every hand.

he applied the martingale must be one of the dumbest things I have ever heard, not even trump worthy.
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Old 01-13-2020, 07:23 PM   #10229
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
I am not relying on the stats. The guys that don't know who invented the Martingale betting strategy but employed it somewhere between 10-21 times (my estimation of his counting ability based on digits) for bankroll ruin relies on the stats as proof of his cheating.

I agree with you that the behavior is convincing to me- he is playing with perfect information (although I admittedly have watched more of the summary compilations of the questionable hands and not the entire streams...perhaps he played some hands wrong or lost some pots).
I was bored so watched quite a bit logging every hand into a spreadsheet pre cheating and some post cheating. I kind of lost interest in the project as after just watching about 10hrs pre and post it was evident beyond a doubt that I didn't complete it 100%.

It's not even close. Not even a little bit.
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Old 01-13-2020, 07:24 PM   #10230
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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the martingale strategy requires an infinitive bankroll.

To me the martingale or who invented it was a infintive idiot.

Whenever I applied the martingale I busted my account, and that was so many times that I cannot even count it. So martingale stands in total contrast to br managment where you dont have an infinitive roll which nobody has anyways.

So justin explain that please.
Infinite.

But yea, it's a theoretical strategy that actually only works if you have positive expectation on the bet in the first place. Otherwise you trend to zero anyway. It's terrible BR management.

But like I said, that never stopped us from encouraging a whale to try it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimM View Post
That's about one in two million. But what if he's a crusher who wins 3 out of 4 sessions? Then winning 21 out of 21 sessions should happen around once out of 500. Forget the stats and look at the behavior, it's clear enough.



But in this case, the streams were fixed length sessions, correct?
Roughly yes. I don't think they varied much and I don't think Mike left early. Clearly one of two things must be happening:

1) Mike is a poker GOD.

2) Mike's penis is magical and can read RFID tags if he stares at it.
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Old 01-13-2020, 11:20 PM   #10231
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic View Post
I was bored so watched quite a bit logging every hand into a spreadsheet pre cheating and some post cheating. I kind of lost interest in the project as after just watching about 10hrs pre and post it was evident beyond a doubt that I didn't complete it 100%.

It's not even close. Not even a little bit.
I watched the session that he won 20k and a few of the different compilations and lost interest too because it was pretty obvious. There may be some confirmation bias in my judgment but I don't see any other explanation other than he was getting information from his phone in his lap.
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Old 01-14-2020, 12:17 AM   #10232
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

What is going on with this case? I hate to say this but I feel this is all being swept under the rug. Its pretty sad you hear nothing else about the mike postle situation.

Hes clearly guilty but feel the players are going to be F'ed over that lost to him.
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Old 01-14-2020, 09:21 AM   #10233
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Christians have been saying for almost 2000 years, Christ will come back. Well he did, his name is Mike Postle and he plays $1-$3 NL on Stones Casino. He IS God and you should all respect him, stop being so jealous. He won $250k for our sins, and you are all going to hell for this
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Old 01-14-2020, 10:37 AM   #10234
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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It no internet bs. I comes from 1st sources. Coincedentally when the game was running justin bought a tesla.
What evidence do you have?

You do know that people who aren't crooked also buy cars, right?
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Old 01-14-2020, 10:41 AM   #10235
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Infinite.

But yea, it's a theoretical strategy that actually only works if you have positive expectation on the bet in the first place. Otherwise you trend to zero anyway. It's terrible BR management.

But like I said, that never stopped us from encouraging a whale to try it.



Roughly yes. I don't think they varied much and I don't think Mike left early. Clearly one of two things must be happening:

1) Mike is a poker GOD.

2) Mike's penis is magical and can read RFID tags if he stares at it.

Or 3)

Or Justin set the whole thing up. Sort of how the narcissist villain in the movies who thinks he is smarter than everybody else, when in fact he's an idiot.

He used the Martingale, come on!

Can u imagine Phil Nagy, or Bill Saxton, Helmuth or anyone saying about their staked players he used the Martingale?
It just doesn't make sense. (It doesn't give you an edge not does it apply to the context)
There is something odd with this.

If you ask me Justin has a few loose skrews in his head.
And Mike Postle was just the marionette that we see, the tip of the iceberg.
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Old 01-14-2020, 02:23 PM   #10236
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Or 3)

Or Justin set the whole thing up. Sort of how the narcissist villain in the movies who thinks he is smarter than everybody else, when in fact he's an idiot.

He used the Martingale, come on!

Can u imagine Phil Nagy, or Bill Saxton, Helmuth or anyone saying about their staked players he used the Martingale?
It just doesn't make sense. (It doesn't give you an edge not does it apply to the context)
There is something odd with this.

If you ask me Justin has a few loose skrews in his head.
And Mike Postle was just the marionette that we see, the tip of the iceberg.
I agree Justin is really behind this not Postle. However, he is a card room manager, not a poker player. That is why he would say something ridiculous about Martingales. I also agree that this scheme was not practical, and not likely to work for long.
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Old 01-14-2020, 02:32 PM   #10237
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I agree Justin is really behind this not Postle. However, he is a card room manager, not a poker player. That is why he would say something ridiculous about Martingales. I also agree that this scheme was not practical, and not likely to work for long.
Could have worked for years if they hadn't been greedy ****s that ran max exploit plays on every damn hand. Play a few hands straight up and give a little back here and there and no-one would have questioned an occasional super sick play.
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Old 01-14-2020, 02:52 PM   #10238
jjjou812
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
I agree Justin is really behind this not Postle. However, he is a card room manager, not a poker player. That is why he would say something ridiculous about Martingales. I also agree that this scheme was not practical, and not likely to work for long.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
You have no proof management helped him cheat.

You do have the following inferences:
1. JFK stuck up for Postle so he must be in on it. A stupid inference much like you arguing I am defending the cheaters so I must be involved.
2. He ran the prior investigation and found nothing. This could be simple negligence or the hack could be very sophisticated and require computer skills JFK does not possess or hire to investigate the claim.
3. He was only in God mode when JFK was working the show and does not appear to be in god mo de for two weeks he is out of town. This is a reasonable inference but it is just as reasonable to infer that Jfk's computer was the access point of the hack when you have no proof how the stream was hacked.

So deuce, if I am missing something, tell me what "clearly" proves management helped Postle gain access to the live stream data through his phone in real time.
Deuce, you never responded to this prior post. Can I take you ignoring it as an admission you have no proof JFK was clearly involved?
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Old 01-14-2020, 06:05 PM   #10239
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Old 01-14-2020, 07:48 PM   #10240
washoe
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Mike matusow is back on the case!!

And this is Marie! I've been spending 10 minutes watching this video
And thinking never seen those chicks.. lol

And then she says she is Marie and then notice she has the voice of Marie and she is marle. WTF
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Old 01-14-2020, 09:16 PM   #10241
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
What is going on with this case? I hate to say this but I feel this is all being swept under the rug. Its pretty sad you hear nothing else about the mike postle situation.

Hes clearly guilty but feel the players are going to be F'ed over that lost to him.
It's a court case now. Get used to hearing nothing for months at a time.
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Old 01-14-2020, 09:19 PM   #10242
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Spent a good 5 days in a row in this thread almost day and night when this story first broke. Then left it after stones clearly just stonewalled their bs "investigation" since the wheels of law churn slowly now when that's where it's at

Popped back in now to see if anything is going on

And what do I see? Martingale discussions

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Old 01-14-2020, 09:29 PM   #10243
washoe
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Loctus View Post
Spent a good 5 days in a row in this thread almost day and night when this story first broke. Then left it after stones clearly just stonewalled their bs "investigation" since the wheels of law churn slowly now when that's where it's at

Popped back in now to see if anything is going on

And what do I see? Martingale discussions


Don't you find it funny that Justin said he used the Martingale system?

I think its not ot ok that Doug said he wouldn't play him hu.
Mike said he play anyone hu. Someone should challenge him. Or i will.

I challenge Mike Postle hu.
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Old 01-14-2020, 09:56 PM   #10244
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
Washoe, why don't you give us the mathematical calculations of the probability of winning 21 sessions in a row. You can keep in binary and not calculate ties, just win or lose.
If he was winning maybe $10 a session then it would be possible. Winning the amount he did is absurd. Not even playing that high and he won a lot of money.
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Old 01-14-2020, 10:03 PM   #10245
jjjou812
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

jmur, if you quote the correct post or respond to the content of the post you quote it will make more sense.
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Old 01-14-2020, 10:58 PM   #10246
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Loctus View Post
And what do I see? Martingale discussions

also known as smoke and mirrors.

And for any poler player that spent any time in this thread Postle is either a cheater or a Poker God. The rest of it is just smoke and mirrors.

But a few people are doing a reasonable, yet unconvincing, job of slinging the bullshit.
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Old 01-14-2020, 11:14 PM   #10247
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by TimM View Post
Really what needs to be done is for someone to take every hand on the streams and put them into a format that can be imported into pokertracker. Then all the questions about how much was actually won will be answered. And hopefully that someone is being paid by the plaintiff's attorneys because it's going to be many hours of tedious work.
It's been mentioned that the stream software used by Stones Live actually does save HHs like this right out of the box. So it's possible the plaintiffs will be able to get that data without hundreds of hours of manual work.
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Old 01-14-2020, 11:15 PM   #10248
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

endless hours of people speculating

anyone else miss the old days when a couple of street toughs would find out what happened in ten minutes


instead of years of bs
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Old 01-14-2020, 11:30 PM   #10249
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PayDatBotItsMeoney View Post
3.Though possibly a little understated I am not in defense of either. My point (albeit possibly confusing) is A. There are NO facts, just speculation. People gravitated to ludicrous ideas of bone hats and stuff without looking at the plausible methods used by SLP...aka Discord channel for prod to talk with dealers. In addition still innocent people have gone publicly and demonized these people without any solid facts.

[snip]
At risk of sounding nitpicky, the bolded is incorrect: there are plenty of facts. The question is whether or not these facts mean what the accusers say they mean.

For example, Gumpnstein's observation of Postle putting his phone into his crotch during the July 1, 2018 stream: that action is a fact. Whether or not Postle used that phone to gain information – that's what is left to be determined.

Postle going all-in in a three-way pot with 54 offsuit? Fact. A noticeable bulge in that white baseball cap? Fact.

Postle going all-in in a three-way pot with 54 offsuit because he knew it would be an equity favorite? The noticeable bulge in that white baseball cap must be a bone conduction hearing aid used to gain hole card information? Agreed, now we're speculating, and doing so twice in the second example (one guess as to what caused the bulge, the second guess as to what such a device is used for).

How damning vs. meaningless are these facts? Well, that's the nature of circumstantial evidence*. You've said many times that you want proof. Ultimately, that's what proof is: the combination of evidence and the conclusions that can be made from that evidence. The larger the body of facts, the more mere speculation becomes conclusion.

Now, with that all said...

Quote:
Tablet is to connect to wifi and to bluetooth headset that dealer wears. What app are they using for this? Discord.
Out of curiosity, is this bolded statement a fact or speculation? And if it's a fact, how do you know that? And if it's true, how was Discord used in the alleged cheating and/or how does it exonerate Postle?

(By the way, please don't merely guess when answering my questions. I also prefer proof.)





*Don't get me started on the number of people saying some version of "you only have circumstantial evidence." But that's a rant for another time.
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Old 01-14-2020, 11:42 PM   #10250
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Wilbury Twist View Post
Out of curiosity, is this bolded statement a fact or speculation? And if it's a fact, how do you know that? And if it's true, how was Discord used in the alleged cheating and/or how does it exonerate Postle?

(By the way, please don't merely guess when answering my questions. I also prefer proof.)





*Don't get me started on the number of people saying some version of "you only have circumstantial evidence." But that's a rant for another time.
this is their attempt at driving the weight off of Justin and onto another potential method of cheating.
Also in previous posts, discussing ACR is an attempt at making people start pointing figures at other things as if stones cheating and ACR bots are mutually exclusive.
The Propaganda campaign has begun and no ridiculous attempt will go untried
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