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Old 11-30-2019, 12:02 PM   #9926
TimM
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
Actually, with the hole card knowledge, he could pick the hand where he was ahead pre with a small pair vs two players shared Aks or other big cards. That is exactly my point.
You can make more money if you take all the +EV plays instead of waiting for specific ones. All you need is enough of a bankroll to withstand the added swings. This isn't a tournament.
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Old 11-30-2019, 12:33 PM   #9927
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

pretty funny to follow his twitter account and with everyone else commenting
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Old 11-30-2019, 01:07 PM   #9928
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
He is a very solid poker player. Top 1%.
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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
Theory:

He was instructed to play very loose for the cameras. This game was for entertainment purposes. He is a casino prop. He was told to call Moneymaker with those cards because it makes for great tv. And it’s true, it does. I feel like a lot of this was scripted. Even the commentary. There’s something off.
There's something off indeed.
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Old 11-30-2019, 03:06 PM   #9929
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lovedaphils View Post
Evidence, where for art thou evidence?
"Where for" actually went why in Shakespeare's time. Romeo was asking why Juliet was from this rival family.

Whatever electronic, computer, physical, and eye witness evidence of cheating the plaintiffs have won't be presented until discovery etc.

Play of hands, expert poker and math witnesses, depositions of people cheated, Postle's presumably evasive deposition, Postle looking at his concealed cell phone repeatedly. The fact that the phone Postle was using is presumably destroyed. Stones showing Postle's name as Apostle and God. JFK is apparently no longer working at Stones, and the live stream has been cancelled, both close to admissions of guilt.

It's a civil case, so who has the stronger case, the plantiffs or the defense presumably arguing, it's gambling, you can get lucky and win?
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Old 11-30-2019, 07:01 PM   #9930
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I find it vastly amusing that people with hundreds (or thousands) of posts and who have been here multiple numbers of years, will actually take the time out of their busy day to engage in a debate with a troll.
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Old 11-30-2019, 07:14 PM   #9931
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I definitely agree that the defense will be it's gambling, so you can play whatever and win. They will appeal to the jury not understanding what professional players do.

However, the plaintiff and prosecution if there is a criminal case will present evidence and all the defense will be able to do is try to confuse things.
I don't think you guys are really understanding the reality of the situation. We all know that he cheated, because we understand how poker works. Any sort of trial...be it judge or jury...will have people deciding his fate that will not understand how poker works. And that's assuming that the DA even decides to take this to court, which they may not, because they don't understand how poker works.

Here's all he'll have to say:

"Why did you fold this good hand when you were behind?"

I used LIVE READS to tell that I was behind

"Why did you call this bad hand when you were ahead?"

I used LIVE READS to tell that I was ahead

"Why did you shove with this bad hand when your opponent had a bad hand?"

I used LIVE READS to tell that he was weak

And people who don't have a deep knowledge of poker will nod their heads and say "That's reasonable enough." Without a smoking gun, or someone flipping, it'll all be circumstantial evidence which, while we understand how to interpret it, I don't have faith that the average person will.
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Old 11-30-2019, 09:15 PM   #9932
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post

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You are totally screwed if you do that in a civil case. The jury is allowed to infer guilt from that.
In front of a jury yes. On interrogatory answers and in deposition testimony for a "prematurely" filed case - no. A motion in limine takes care of a jury ever hearing the Fifth being asserted.
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Old 12-01-2019, 02:37 AM   #9933
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

will be interesting to see how they use expert testimony. or who for that matter.

are they allowed to ask experts questions to the effect of "what do you think the chances of him cheating are?"?
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Old 12-01-2019, 03:08 AM   #9934
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Lost it on backdoor quad draw.
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Old 12-01-2019, 03:24 AM   #9935
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by GhoulPatrol View Post
I don't think you guys are really understanding the reality of the situation. We all know that he cheated, because we understand how poker works. Any sort of trial...be it judge or jury...will have people deciding his fate that will not understand how poker works. And that's assuming that the DA even decides to take this to court, which they may not, because they don't understand how poker works.

Here's all he'll have to say:

"Why did you fold this good hand when you were behind?"

I used LIVE READS to tell that I was behind

"Why did you call this bad hand when you were ahead?"

I used LIVE READS to tell that I was ahead

"Why did you shove with this bad hand when your opponent had a bad hand?"

I used LIVE READS to tell that he was weak

And people who don't have a deep knowledge of poker will nod their heads and say "That's reasonable enough." Without a smoking gun, or someone flipping, it'll all be circumstantial evidence which, while we understand how to interpret it, I don't have faith that the average person will.
I call that, "the god defense" and would characterize it so. During crotch looking, with phone placed in the most bizarre location ever(which also just happens to be where no one can see it) he makes the perfect play as tho he can see everyone's cards and calls it skill. I would get some famous live pros on the stand to describe their assessment of his purported skill. I think they would say that if he's not cheating he is god himself but, the jury could disbelieve that testimony; who knows.

A jury could believe someone who claims that he meant to scare the victim but accidentally shot him dead, and just happened to benefit substantially from the victims death; who knows.
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Old 12-01-2019, 06:49 AM   #9936
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
There was a two month period starting on May 5, 2019 where he went:
+800
+1400
+1300
-5700
-200
+500
+4,200
+400
-200

How is this God-mode?
Most of those sessions were not god-mode sessions. In May-June 2019 his alleged accomplice(s) was/were otherwise engaged, either in Vegas, or busy in the commentary booth instead of in the peek room.
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Old 12-01-2019, 06:51 AM   #9937
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Some people are presenting logical, factual arguments here.

Some others "hope" for certain outcomes because "that's how it should be and what he (Postle) deserves". This does not always translate to a just outcome.

This is a TOUGH case to try on a civil or criminal level.

Period.

This isn't cheating the Borgata, chips were not flushed and later collected as evidence.

He cheated other people and the casino to some extent was complicit.

When the common man is cheated in poker (or gambling), close to no one cares on a level that will provide any significant punishment.

I remember so many people telling me Jesus, Lederman and Bitar were going to jail. I remember telling them pointedly "they are going to beat this".

There are many people who want this situation gone - and fast...

There are limited resources to fight on either level and the DA in a criminal setting likely doesn't care that gamblers "may have" been cheated.

Let me be proven wrong though.

Last edited by lovedaphils; 12-01-2019 at 06:58 AM.
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:30 AM   #9938
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by stanthemann View Post
https://www.online-slots-bonuses.com...10k-in-prizes/

Originally Posted by TimM View Post
What if it were four Big Slicks? You make it sound like it's worse to be up against two than one. It would be worse to be up against only one, even if somehow he were getting the same pot odds. But it's still a call. He's got 38% equity vs. one AK and with getting 2-1, he only needs 33.3% to call. And he was getting more than 2-1 because of some dead money. Add the second AK and his equity goes up to over 41%. https://www.online-slots-bonuses.com...-flip-his-lid/


Of course no one in the public would call that, because they aren't experience poker players or gamblers. Many wouldn't call that even after the odds were explained, because the average person is super risk averse.
I’m just saying I would fold even knowing it was +EV. I would find better and certain spots than risking $3,400. This hand had been identified as ‘proof’ when I think it will be shown that 95%+ of all poker players would fold in that situation. Even very good poker players.
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i reckon more like 90%

Some people are presenting logical, factual arguments here.

Some others "hope" for certain outcomes because "that's how it should be and what he (Postle) deserves". This does not always translate to a just outcome.

This is a TOUGH case to try on a civil or criminal level.

Period.

This isn't cheating the Borgata, chips were not flushed and later collected as evidence.

He cheated other people and the casino to some extent was complicit.

When the common man is cheated in poker (or gambling), close to no one cares on a level that will provide any significant punishment.

I remember so many people telling me Jesus, Lederman and Bitar were going to jail. I remember telling them pointedly "they are going to beat this".

There are many people who want this situation gone - and fast...

There are limited resources to fight on either level and the DA in a criminal setting likely doesn't care that gamblers "may have" been cheated.

Let me be proven wrong though.

I totally agree with the above.
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:44 AM   #9939
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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This is a TOUGH case to try on a civil or criminal level.
This.

I would say conviction in a criminal case would be nearly impossible. If I were Mike's lawyer I'd just tell them how Stu Ungar called with 10-high no pair in a $50K match (http://somuchpoker.com/calling-with-...matloubi-1990/), and also show video clips of Daniel Negreanu calling out opponents' exact hands and say "See? It is absolutely possible to know your opponents' exact hands based on live reads. It's a proven fact in poker."

How you gonna prove that Mike wasn't doing that BEYOND ANY REASONABLE DOUBT? Plus all it takes is ONE juror out of 12 to agree. AND they can to a certain extend select jurors (pick those bad at maths or like to gamble).
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Old 12-01-2019, 01:35 PM   #9940
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
Most of those sessions were not god-mode sessions. In May-June 2019 his alleged accomplice(s) was/were otherwise engaged, either in Vegas, or busy in the commentary booth instead of in the peek room.


Gotcha. He still had some very small wins on ‘God-mode’ which I attribute to his loose-playing style for the stream.

He didn’t maximize his winnings by any stretch. He also won a bunch of times not on God-mode.

I don’t see a jury convicting him of anything without harder evidence or a witness. Way too much uncertainty. There is nothing outlandish about a single individual hand. Many of his plays are debatable, even with God-mode. He played far from perfect. He just seemingly made perfect plays on the turn and river on hands he should never have played.

The casino seems far more at fault for not protect the integrity of the game. People suck and are of course going to cheat. They knew there were suspicions. They could have gotten to the bottom of it while it was happening and didn’t. The first investigation was a joke.

Hopefully the new investigation gets to the bottom of it and it stops all the conjecture (including mine) which isn’t good for the game.
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Old 12-01-2019, 08:02 PM   #9941
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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He just seemingly made perfect plays on the turn and river on hands he should never have played.
Oh, is that all he did? Just made perfect plays on the turn and river? And he played hands that someone who doesn't know his opponents' cards never should have played? It's almost like he knew he'd be able to play perfectly the rest of the hand to make it +EV going forward. I wonder how he was able to do that.
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Old 12-01-2019, 08:49 PM   #9942
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Oh, is that all he did? Just made perfect plays on the turn and river? And he played hands that someone who doesn't know his opponents' cards never should have played? It's almost like he knew he'd be able to play perfectly the rest of the hand to make it +EV going forward. I wonder how he was able to do that.


You still don’t get it.

He played hands that he shouldn’t have played even if he knew all the hole cards. He shouldn’t have been in those challenging spots in the first place.

His win-rate is far below where it should have been and very unimpressive for a game this big. He had to though. For TV. Playing much fewer hands does not make for entertainment. He was the story. He had to play all those hands. The trade-off to play that was that he would need info on his opponents’ cards or he would have gotten murdered.

He barely won some sessions despite God-mode. He pulled off a very challenging stunt and only a super-elite player could do what he did, having to basically play ever hand. I absolutely believe that he is an excellent player, with an extremely long and dedicated history of winning.
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:16 PM   #9943
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Stop. Just stop.
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:37 PM   #9944
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Anyone that doesn't see he's a cheating bastard doesn't know anything about poker.

He played a max exploit strategy when he was staring at his dick (in NLHE, he was still too stupid to win when playing PLO and seeing the cards). This is not a "he was playing loose for TV" situation.
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:45 PM   #9945
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Stop. Just stop.
.

Full troll mode engaged.
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:59 PM   #9946
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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You still don’t get it.

He played hands that he shouldn’t have played even if he knew all the hole cards. He shouldn’t have been in those challenging spots in the first place.

His win-rate is far below where it should have been and very unimpressive for a game this big. He had to though. For TV. Playing much fewer hands does not make for entertainment. He was the story. He had to play all those hands. The trade-off to play that was that he would need info on his opponents’ cards or he would have gotten murdered.

He barely won some sessions despite God-mode. He pulled off a very challenging stunt and only a super-elite player could do what he did, having to basically play ever hand. I absolutely believe that he is an excellent player, with an extremely long and dedicated history of winning.
May i ask you what stakes do you play?

You seem to have no idea how poker works, honestly.

If you play his ''style'' of Poker @ nl10 online you would be losing tons, just so you know.

Hell, even in my 10usd home game with drunk friends you would be losing sesh after sesh (like some friends of mine usually do, lol)
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Old 12-01-2019, 10:27 PM   #9947
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Old 12-01-2019, 10:53 PM   #9948
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Anyone that doesn't see he's a cheating bastard doesn't know anything about poker.
Sounds like most people in the jury pool.

One of the reasons why I don't think the DA will bring charges.

Let's assume the plaintiffs prove their case against Postle in the civil case.
Does he have any money to cover the damages?

The real money is in the case against Stones. Can they convince the jury that Stones was complicit or that they were negligent in not catching Postle early on?
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Old 12-01-2019, 11:11 PM   #9949
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Let’s be realistic:

No county or State DA in California is going to spend time and tax dollars on Postle when they can’t even manage the case loads of all the violent crimes being prosecuted. This is straight civil and everything else is nerds enjoy reading themselves type
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Old 12-02-2019, 12:26 AM   #9950
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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May i ask you what stakes do you play?

You seem to have no idea how poker works, honestly.

If you play his ''style'' of Poker @ nl10 online you would be losing tons, just so you know.

Hell, even in my 10usd home game with drunk friends you would be losing sesh after sesh (like some friends of mine usually do, lol)

Of course he would be losing without knowing the cards. He would be crushed.

I will bet anyone that if you set a poker software simulator with seven fish and me with the same cards he got, I would make over $1 million. I think the best players in the would would clear it for far more.

He didn’t come close to God-mode perfect play. He played odd-mode for entertainment purposes with the proviso of making a little bit of money. But no where near what he should have with him being an elite player against a bunch of fish with perfect knowledge.

And I don’t think he intentionally loss less to disguise his play. I think he was committed to playing a lot of hands and used everything at his disposal to ensure he didn’t suffer a massive loss. This wasn’t a risk-free strategy and he had to sweat out some major bluffs on the river. Many sessions were break-even. I think he worked very hard to win what he did and only an elite player like himself could have pulled this off playing so many marginal hands to the river.
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