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Old 11-27-2019, 12:35 PM   #9876
OG_Thizz
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Koko the munkey View Post
How's business been at stones lately? Has anyone seen JFK?
It seems like anything above 1/3 is pretty much dead. I was at Thunder last weekend and seen a few of the 2/5 Stones regs, though that could have been just them following the action of the Deepstacks series.
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Old 11-27-2019, 12:38 PM   #9877
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by zica View Post
I agree.

AFAIK, if there is a criminal investigation, those with a civil complaint will wait until after the criminal investigation is complete to see if the authorities proceed with charges and get a conviction because that makes the civil complainants job simpler. Is it possible for anyone to know if there is an ongoing investigation by government agencies that could result in a criminal charge, or even by a casino regulator that could result in a finding of fault?
Yes, it generally is possible to know if that is ongoing. There are clues, especially once the civil case has moved to discovery.
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Old 11-27-2019, 12:49 PM   #9878
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by OG_Thizz View Post
It seems like anything above 1/3 is pretty much dead. I was at Thunder last weekend and seen a few of the 2/5 Stones regs, though that could have been just them following the action of the Deepstacks series.
anything above 1/3 only ran a couple times a week before the scandal anyways
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Old 11-27-2019, 01:34 PM   #9879
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I hope it is ok to meme the situation here.



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Old 11-27-2019, 04:43 PM   #9880
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

JFK may be banned from Stones properties. I wonder what the rest of his career will look like. Maybe he should look for something to do self employed. I wonder who would want to hire him, even for something shady.
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Old 11-27-2019, 05:04 PM   #9881
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Golfnutt coming through with some good memes
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Old 11-27-2019, 05:13 PM   #9882
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
They are asking for punitive damages, which is a little far-fetched, but is probably designed to get a larger settlement. It might be a problem getting fully compensated for their losses after lawyers fees. It is unlikely this goes to court. If it does, the plaintiffs will have a strong case. The question is how much it gets settled for.
Why is this far-fetched? Punitive damages are not always permissible damages to recover, but where the complaint stems from fraud, it certainly seems reasonable.
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Old 11-27-2019, 06:15 PM   #9883
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Natamus View Post
Golfnutt coming through with some good memes
This is correct. Looks like his trolling abilities go well beyond merely his real life employment.
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Old 11-27-2019, 07:09 PM   #9884
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
I think the 54 hand is more supportive that he is a wild player than a cheater. Why would you play a preflop game when you know the other players hole cards?
A lot of his "god mode" hands are arguable. I don't know why people are focusing in on these hands he now obviously cheated on. It's all very thin, but it's debatable.

It's the pre June 30th 2018 hands that should be looked at. The pre crotch looking, phone on the table poker player that needs to be examined.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT0NHSsPv3Y

The guy is a super average, maybe even bad poker player. He's a payoff donkey, ontop of folding the best hand over and over again. The real Mike Postle is a straight ass cash game player. The pre-June 30th 2018 videos show he 110% cheated after June 30th 2018.

Last edited by hennessyneat; 11-27-2019 at 07:14 PM.
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Old 11-27-2019, 07:14 PM   #9885
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rakemeplz View Post
This is correct. Looks like his trolling abilities go well beyond merely his real life employment.


Haha. I moved on. I do a lot of Reddit memes. This event is so meme-worthy.

This does look like its run itís course in terms of public interest/info. There hasnít been anything in a month. Now you have stragglers, like myself, that are late to the story.

Every single play was perfect. Itís mesmerizing. Hours and hours.

Bravo to the person that brought this forward. That does take courage. She definitely deserves an extra bonus. The publicity around this has ensured this isnít going to be washed away and forgotten.
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Old 11-29-2019, 07:51 AM   #9886
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Iím all caught up.

I donít think he will be found guilty without a proven device or witness.

I certainly wouldnít bet my life on it.

His defense:
-This is a made for TV-event. It isnít real poker. Itís entertainment.
-All the other players were bad. It was well-known. Players come in from out of the area. He was a regular. Home court. I would expect him to be far better than average. The hands the others play are suspect. I want to get in on that game. This is donk on donk craziness.
-There are commentators. I would be nervous playing in that game. I totally believe the culture was to play loose to get on the internet. Everyone wants Social Media fame. Play bad against a local legend and get your 15 minutes of fame.

Blah, blah, blah.

Letís get down to poker. The ďkeyĒ hand of AK-AK vs. 5-4 as definitive proof. I think the exact opposite. I bet you 90% of poker players fold in this exact situation knowing all cards. I would fold. I would find better situations. Thatís risky. Iím not taking on two Big Slicks. Sorry. Maybe Iím a bad player. Iím not calling $3,400.

Test it on the public. I will bet anyone up to $10 a person that the other side would fold in that situation if we were secretly watching.

This was a much bigger game than I thought. It isnít the $1/$3 game I play. They are betting crazy amounts.

I donít even know what perfect play is. If we faced the exact same info as the villain, what would our outcome be? Far different for each person. Some people would lose. Itís not guaranteed money. He has to have winning cards or bluff people out. Neither is a certainty.

This is far from slam-dunky. Itís iffy at best based solely on statistics and poker player testimony. We arenít jailing people on 10 hands of poker or taking their bank accounts. I donít find anything wrong with any individual play. Itís meh.

Well, this will be interesting.
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Old 11-29-2019, 09:42 AM   #9887
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
Iím all caught up.

I donít think he will be found guilty without a proven device or witness.

I certainly wouldnít bet my life on it.

His defense:
-This is a made for TV-event. It isnít real poker. Itís entertainment.
-All the other players were bad. It was well-known. Players come in from out of the area. He was a regular. Home court. I would expect him to be far better than average. The hands the others play are suspect. I want to get in on that game. This is donk on donk craziness.
-There are commentators. I would be nervous playing in that game. I totally believe the culture was to play loose to get on the internet. Everyone wants Social Media fame. Play bad against a local legend and get your 15 minutes of fame.

Blah, blah, blah.

Letís get down to poker. The ďkeyĒ hand of AK-AK vs. 5-4 as definitive proof. I think the exact opposite. I bet you 90% of poker players fold in this exact situation knowing all cards. I would fold. I would find better situations. Thatís risky. Iím not taking on two Big Slicks. Sorry. Maybe Iím a bad player. Iím not calling $3,400.

Test it on the public. I will bet anyone up to $10 a person that the other side would fold in that situation if we were secretly watching.

This was a much bigger game than I thought. It isnít the $1/$3 game I play. They are betting crazy amounts.

I donít even know what perfect play is. If we faced the exact same info as the villain, what would our outcome be? Far different for each person. Some people would lose. Itís not guaranteed money. He has to have winning cards or bluff people out. Neither is a certainty.

This is far from slam-dunky. Itís iffy at best based solely on statistics and poker player testimony. We arenít jailing people on 10 hands of poker or taking their bank accounts. I donít find anything wrong with any individual play. Itís meh.

Well, this will be interesting.
If there is a criminal investigation it will be a slam dunk. They will find evidence and proof.
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Old 11-29-2019, 10:28 AM   #9888
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
His defense:
-This is a made for TV-event. It isnít real poker. Itís entertainment.
-All the other players were bad. It was well-known. Players come in from out of the area. He was a regular. Home court. I would expect him to be far better than average. The hands the others play are suspect. I want to get in on that game. This is donk on donk craziness.
-There are commentators. I would be nervous playing in that game. I totally believe the culture was to play loose to get on the internet. Everyone wants Social Media fame. Play bad against a local legend and get your 15 minutes of fame.
Again, this doesn't explain the sharp difference in playing style when the phone is on the table vs. when the phone is in the crotch. In both cases everything else say above is equally in effect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
Letís get down to poker. The ďkeyĒ hand of AK-AK vs. 5-4 as definitive proof. I think the exact opposite. I bet you 90% of poker players fold in this exact situation knowing all cards. I would fold. I would find better situations. Thatís risky. Iím not taking on two Big Slicks. Sorry. Maybe Iím a bad player. Iím not calling $3,400.
What if it were four Big Slicks? You make it sound like it's worse to be up against two than one. It would be worse to be up against only one, even if somehow he were getting the same pot odds. But it's still a call. He's got 38% equity vs. one AK and with getting 2-1, he only needs 33.3% to call. And he was getting more than 2-1 because of some dead money. Add the second AK and his equity goes up to over 41%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
Test it on the public. I will bet anyone up to $10 a person that the other side would fold in that situation if we were secretly watching.
Of course no one in the public would call that, because they aren't experience poker players or gamblers. Many wouldn't call that even after the odds were explained, because the average person is super risk averse.

Quote:
Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
This was a much bigger game than I thought. It isnít the $1/$3 game I play. They are betting crazy amounts.

I donít even know what perfect play is. If we faced the exact same info as the villain, what would our outcome be? Far different for each person. Some people would lose. Itís not guaranteed money. He has to have winning cards or bluff people out. Neither is a certainty.
I doubt anyone would lose. Some would just play a super abc game, always folding when behind without a good draw, and calling when ahead. That would still be a huge advantage.

Quote:
Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
This is far from slam-dunky. Itís iffy at best based solely on statistics and poker player testimony. We arenít jailing people on 10 hands of poker or taking their bank accounts. I donít find anything wrong with any individual play. Itís meh.
For the millionth time, it's not about individual plays. I'm not going to repeat what it is about, because it's been posted enough times.
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Old 11-29-2019, 11:14 AM   #9889
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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For the millionth time, it's not about individual plays. I'm not going to repeat what it is about, because it's been posted enough times.
+1000000

If someone mentions that there is nothing wrong with any of the individual hands once more, they should be insta-banned for willfully ignoring one of the main thrusts of the thread and continuing make this assertion. It is basically trolling at this point. Perhaps they're not ignoring it -- it's just that it is beyond their ability to comprehend. And also in that case, their posts should not be allowed to continue to clog the thread.
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Old 11-29-2019, 11:18 AM   #9890
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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based solely on statistics
This is also totally misunderstanding it. Statistic only applies to the win rate argument, not to the fact that his decision making and playing approach is entirely different and "correct" when his phone is in his crotch.
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Old 11-29-2019, 01:35 PM   #9891
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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What if it were four Big Slicks? You make it sound like it's worse to be up against two than one. It would be worse to be up against only one, even if somehow he were getting the same pot odds. But it's still a call. He's got 38% equity vs. one AK and with getting 2-1, he only needs 33.3% to call. And he was getting more than 2-1 because of some dead money. Add the second AK and his equity goes up to over 41%.


Of course no one in the public would call that, because they aren't experience poker players or gamblers. Many wouldn't call that even after the odds were explained, because the average person is super risk averse.
Iím just saying I would fold even knowing it was +EV. I would find better and certain spots than risking $3,400. This hand had been identified as Ďproofí when I think it will be shown that 95%+ of all poker players would fold in that situation. Even very good poker players.
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Old 11-29-2019, 02:17 PM   #9892
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
Iím just saying I would fold even knowing it was +EV. I would find better and certain spots than risking $3,400. This hand had been identified as Ďproofí when I think it will be shown that 95%+ of all poker players would fold in that situation. Even very good poker players.
Let's talk about a single hand. Again. One more time.
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Old 11-29-2019, 03:27 PM   #9893
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

What's is JFK's status? Is he still a Stones employee?
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Old 11-29-2019, 05:24 PM   #9894
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Joeyrodsx3 View Post
Surprised nobody has jumped on this to post here...

On Twitter yesterday I believe Mike Postle is being accused of cheating on Livestream. Not much proof (that has been shown) besides a lot of speculative hands. Will link the YouTube videos below.

Thoughts? The lines he takes are absolutely absurd but I don't see how he could be pulling this off.






Mod edit: Here is a summary of Postle's sessions made by one of the many members who have spent tons of hours reviewing the Stones Live videos.




October 13, 2019 edit:

Post about lawsuit filing.




mod edit (oct 13, 2019): added another good "summary" post
https://www.online-slots-bonuses.com...10k-in-prizes/

Originally Posted by TimM View Post
What if it were four Big Slicks? You make it sound like it's worse to be up against two than one. It would be worse to be up against only one, even if somehow he were getting the same pot odds. But it's still a call. He's got 38% equity vs. one AK and with getting 2-1, he only needs 33.3% to call. And he was getting more than 2-1 because of some dead money. Add the second AK and his equity goes up to over 41%.


Of course no one in the public would call that, because they aren't experience poker players or gamblers. Many wouldn't call that even after the odds were explained, because the average person is super risk averse.
I’m just saying I would fold even knowing it was +EV. I would find better and certain spots than risking $3,400. This hand had been identified as ‘proof’ when I think it will be shown that 95%+ of all poker players would fold in that situation. Even very good poker players.
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i reckon more like 90%

Last edited by stanthemann; 11-29-2019 at 05:25 PM. Reason: finish response
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Old 11-29-2019, 05:26 PM   #9895
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
Iím just saying I would fold even knowing it was +EV. I would find better and certain spots than risking $3,400. This hand had been identified as Ďproofí when I think it will be shown that 95%+ of all poker players would fold in that situation. Even very good poker players.
You might be fine risking a few grand if you're up 100-200K in the game. Or not, it doesn't matter. You miss the point that him calling when you and 95%+ of all poker players would have incorrectly folded versus known hands doesn't make the hand less suspicious. It's more that he calls correctly here versus two all-ins when those players don't have a pocket pair, but folds when they do, and in another even folds KK when up against AA. So which is it, a crazy game where facing two all-ins doesn't mean much, or a tough game where you need to fold KK sometimes?

No hand is proof, but each hand is evidence, and all of them combined paint the picture. It's like you've zoomed in on the smoke from the gun so much that you are looking at each particle of smoke and saying "that could just be a grain of dust".
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Old 11-29-2019, 06:43 PM   #9896
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by TimM View Post
You might be fine risking a few grand if you're up 100-200K in the game. Or not, it doesn't matter. You miss the point that him calling when you and 95%+ of all poker players would have incorrectly folded versus known hands doesn't make the hand less suspicious. It's more that he calls correctly here versus two all-ins when those players don't have a pocket pair, but folds when they do, and in another even folds KK when up against AA. So which is it, a crazy game where facing two all-ins doesn't mean much, or a tough game where you need to fold KK sometimes?



No hand is proof, but each hand is evidence, and all of them combined paint the picture. It's like you've zoomed in on the smoke from the gun so much that you are looking at each particle of smoke and saying "that could just be a grain of dust".

It us everyone else zooming. YouTube is ďTop 6 hands that prove he cheatedĒ.

And the hyper-focus on this one hand in particular. My point was that this disproves there is a ďperfectĒ way to play hands. I wouldnít have played it.

My play would be far different. I would try to limp in as much as possible and trap players. I would have folded far more than he did. He was ostensibly forced to bluff hands on the river to win. Risky strategy.

Iím not even that impressed with his win rate. This was a fairly big game and there were multiple sessions where he made chicken scratch.

Theory:

He was instructed to play very loose for the cameras. This game was for entertainment purposes. He is a casino prop. He was told to call Moneymaker with those cards because it makes for great tv. And itís true, it does. I feel like a lot of this was scripted. Even the commentary. Thereís something off.
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Old 11-29-2019, 07:09 PM   #9897
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
+1000000

If someone mentions that there is nothing wrong with any of the individual hands once more, they should be insta-banned for willfully ignoring one of the main thrusts of the thread and continuing make this assertion. It is basically trolling at this point. Perhaps they're not ignoring it -- it's just that it is beyond their ability to comprehend. And also in that case, their posts should not be allowed to continue to clog the thread.
It's comical that you are calling for people to be instabanned for "ignoring a main thrust of the thread" simply because you don't wish to read about it. This thread is a clusterfudge of ideas, theories and misunderstanding of facts, evidence and how the legal system works. Many people have asserted individual hands "prove" the cheating, so of course people are discussing the individual hands.

There is no way the statistical "evidence" was even remotely correct. Whoever put postle on the potripper chart did no calculations, the concept that his winning sessions rate exeeds winning the lottery multiple times or atoms in the universe (or whatever was placed in the first post) is ludicrous.

The thread was clogged by all kinds of junk, dissecting individual hands by an attorney are not ban worthy nor does the person not understand the issue.
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Old 11-29-2019, 07:20 PM   #9898
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Golfnutt is average troll but this is pretty weak game especially showing up so late.
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Old 11-29-2019, 07:44 PM   #9899
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
197,388,576 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
5s4d41.08% 80,729,8921,049,220
AK29.46% 5,868,612104,921,460
AK29.46% 5,868,612104,921,460

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
12,336,786 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJd5.34% 522,864286,492
AA84.02% 10,306,037133,780
JJ10.64% 1,221,393197,341
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Old 11-29-2019, 08:26 PM   #9900
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
It's comical that you are calling for people to be instabanned for "ignoring a main thrust of the thread" simply because you don't wish to read about it. This thread is a clusterfudge of ideas, theories and misunderstanding of facts, evidence and how the legal system works. Many people have asserted individual hands "prove" the cheating, so of course people are discussing the individual hands.



There is no way the statistical "evidence" was even remotely correct. Whoever put postle on the potripper chart did no calculations, the concept that his winning sessions rate exeeds winning the lottery multiple times or atoms in the universe (or whatever was placed in the first post) is ludicrous.



The thread was clogged by all kinds of junk, dissecting individual hands by an attorney are not ban worthy nor does the person not understand the issue.


Exactly. All I see here and on YouTube are hands proving his was cheating. I donít see the hands as proof at all. They are all meh.

His win rate isnít ďGodĒ mode. I think he played extra loose for the cameras and it cost him. He even said he was told to play that way to get camera time.

He could have killed the game with a tight-aggressive play. He could also have greatly reduced losses and not take the risk of bluffs not working out.

He got killed on hands that are conveniently not shown. He did lose $5k one session.

There is something fishy with his phone. Iím not convinced he hacked into the feed though. It may be someone in the control room telling him what to do for Ďactioní purposes and not entirely for money.

I think he went against Moneymaker for the story and not just because of EV. It was a big risk for $3,400. I would have folded.

Bottom line: They need to prove how/what/whom was involved. I think itís a weak case going solely with statistics. Itís not going to work. He didnít play perfectly. He made risky decisions to try to outbluff callable hands on the river.

Iím willing to bet money that WITHOUT a witness, confession or hardcore evidence, there is no case. This comes off as stretching stats and making selected hands out to fit a pre-determined story.
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