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Old 10-31-2019, 01:27 PM   #9526
MrFabulous
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by grjr View Post
I have read this entire thread and as far as I know no one has broken down every hand he has played to where it could be determined what percentage of draws he hit during this period. I'm saying that would be a lot of work for no real gain.
I think you are not getting it as it ain´t about "hitting draws".
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Old 10-31-2019, 01:44 PM   #9527
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I think there's a good chance that it seems like he's running abnormally hot because we're cherry-picking all these hands that he won and not seeing all the others where the draws didn't come in.

He played a lot of hands in those 14 months and the only way to know for sure would be to document every hand. Would be a lot of work just to see if he's lucky or not.
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Originally Posted by MrFabulous View Post
I think you are not getting it as it ain´t about "hitting draws".
My original post has nothing to do with whether Mike was cheating or not; that's very obvious now. I was replying to Lawdude who thought Mike may have been running hot during this period.

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Sure. I know all that. But I suspect he also ran good and hit a greater percentage of his 2 outers, gutshots, and backdoor draws than expectation during these sessions.
As I was watching Mike's hands I was also thinking that he hit a lot of good cards but after thinking about it some more I realized that it could be because we're not seeing the hands he doesn't hit; unless you want to watch every hand of every session. But there's no reason to do that because it has nothing to do with his cheating; unless the dealers were stacking the deck but that's really far-fetched.
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Old 10-31-2019, 04:08 PM   #9528
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Natamus View Post
Guys guys it’s all OK

He uses the MARTINGDALE strategy in poker.

It’s too high level for any of us to understand.

Justin is either extremely dumb or he thinks everyone else is extremely dumb.
Why would a poker room manager evaluate the strength of a player? How could he be qualified to do that? Is that a reasonable response by the manager to a cheating allegation?

So this Martingale strategy only works at 1/3 and 5/5? Why not take it to the biggest games?
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Old 10-31-2019, 04:18 PM   #9529
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Husker View Post
This part is pretty telling:

SS: How much control did Justin Kuraitis have over the livestream?

VB: The whole livestream was a one-man show and it was Justin. Justin made every decision. He had sole control of Stones Live Poker. He had an IT director of Stones that he pushed out of the entire operation because the guy was asking questions, and wanted things done properly and wanted to oversee some of the IT portions of it.

Justin was there for almost every livestream. He would stand behind this podium and watch the entire show with his headphones on. And he had this like microphone on his blazer. I assumed he was talking to tech, and he may have been, but he would watch the entire show, and he would make comments during the show. If the cards were quote-unquote not being read properly, or they were wrong, Justin would quickly change them and make a comment like, ‘Oh, Postle’s good, but he’s not that good.” He was very involved in the show.
The stream had literally a few dozen viewers. How many producers do you think it deserved? The fact one guy ran it isn't "telling" of anything.
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Old 10-31-2019, 04:48 PM   #9530
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 12bigworm81 View Post
The stream had literally a few dozen viewers. How many producers do you think it deserved? The fact one guy ran it isn't "telling" of anything.
It has nothing to do with how many viewers the stream had. That's irrelevant. They're capturing the players' hole cards electronically in a game they're running in their casino. It's a significant security issue for that reason alone.

When they're running a complex electronic system that is capturing the players' card info and real money is being wagered, it certainly raises a flag that he would push out the IT director and just set it up and maintain it himself.
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Old 10-31-2019, 04:49 PM   #9531
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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The stream had literally a few dozen viewers. How many producers do you think it deserved? The fact one guy ran it isn't "telling" of anything.
Read the first part.
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Old 10-31-2019, 06:20 PM   #9532
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Combine this with the fact that accusations of cheating are something of a cliche in poker. We've all heard the losing player say that poker is RIGGED, I tell you RIGGED! So there's even more of a tendency to discount evidence of cheating. We're so used to false insinuations of cheating that we don't quickly notice actual evidence of it.
The evidence of potripper's cheating was at first rejected because so many "It's rigged" posts had been made about online play. Rationalists always said something like, "The sites are raking in bundles. Why would they be so foolish as to endanger their profits?" It turns out that greed trumps reason, logic, and caution ...
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Old 10-31-2019, 08:37 PM   #9533
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
Why would a poker room manager evaluate the strength of a player? How could he be qualified to do that? Is that a reasonable response by the manager to a cheating allegation?
Justin is obviously unqualified, but FWIW, we have some poker room managers in Southern California who do actually have some idea who the good players are.
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Old 10-31-2019, 08:45 PM   #9534
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by grjr View Post
My original post has nothing to do with whether Mike was cheating or not; that's very obvious now. I was replying to Lawdude who thought Mike may have been running hot during this period.



As I was watching Mike's hands I was also thinking that he hit a lot of good cards but after thinking about it some more I realized that it could be because we're not seeing the hands he doesn't hit; unless you want to watch every hand of every session. But there's no reason to do that because it has nothing to do with his cheating; unless the dealers were stacking the deck but that's really far-fetched.
He's hitting a lot of his draws because he sees all the cards in play and basically never folds before the river?
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Old 10-31-2019, 09:35 PM   #9535
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post

So this Martingale strategy only works at 1/3 and 5/5? Why not take it to the biggest games?

Idk maybe he was rebuilding his roll
At 1/3-5/5 so he could head back to The Mirage and take on the best players in world in their own office?
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Old 10-31-2019, 09:37 PM   #9536
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Justin is obviously unqualified, but FWIW, we have some poker room managers in Southern California who do actually have some idea who the good players are.
Facts
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Old 10-31-2019, 09:48 PM   #9537
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Justin is obviously unqualified, but FWIW, we have some poker room managers in Southern California who do actually have some idea who the good players are.
They know who has the reputation and who has the big stacks in the big games. However, how could the manager know someone has a superior Martingale strategy? Wouldn't it be more normal to say something like "we've investigated it and didn't find anything, but thanks for the input. We will continue to look into any cheating allegations and make sure the live stream is secure."
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Old 11-01-2019, 12:54 AM   #9538
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
They know who has the reputation and who has the big stacks in the big games. However, how could the manager know someone has a superior Martingale strategy? Wouldn't it be more normal to say something like "we've investigated it and didn't find anything, but thanks for the input. We will continue to look into any cheating allegations and make sure the live stream is secure."
It's common knowledge that in table games, the kryptonite to the Martingale is a max bet enforced by those crusty pit bosses. Someone with an unlimited bankroll like MP would not waste his time or his superior strategies on such games. But, in a table max 1/3 NLHE, that is where the magic happens.

Why has no one thought of it before? They simply did not have the intellect of MP, and Justin has inadvertantly let the whole world know his secret. The poker world is doomed. I could only imagine that David Sklansky is rushing to write his next book on Mike Postle, to capitalize on the strategy that took the poker world by storm.

One could only imagine the unfathomable riches that MP would have obtained had he used the Fibonacci sequence instead, thank god he never got his hands on that one.
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Old 11-01-2019, 09:00 AM   #9539
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by grjr View Post
My original post has nothing to do with whether Mike was cheating or not; that's very obvious now. I was replying to Lawdude who thought Mike may have been running hot during this period.



As I was watching Mike's hands I was also thinking that he hit a lot of good cards but after thinking about it some more I realized that it could be because we're not seeing the hands he doesn't hit; unless you want to watch every hand of every session. But there's no reason to do that because it has nothing to do with his cheating; unless the dealers were stacking the deck but that's really far-fetched.
We are seeing the hands he draws and hits, and also the ones he doesn't hit, when he then folds them.

The only time he doesn't fold a missed draw is when he knows the other player is weak, so he can bluff them out of a pot.

So this is why he is very loose pre flop, and plays so different after the flop once he knows if he is ahead or behind.

I tell you what, now we all know how easier it is when you know the other players cards, sales of marked cards will be going through the roof!
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Old 11-01-2019, 10:04 AM   #9540
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I tell you what, now we all know how easier it is when you know the other players cards, sales of marked cards will be going through the roof!
https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Mark...2616887&sr=8-4

Good for home or back room games, but won't work in a casino.
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Old 11-01-2019, 10:12 AM   #9541
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

guys... for what it's worth, the martingale thing may have never been said, it's he said vs she said and she is recalling from several months back and has an obvious motive for bias

i'm not calling her a liar, I'm just saying just because she said it doesn't mean it actually happened

martingdale just seems way too absurd to be true - if he did say it, I almost want to believe it was meant as a sarcastic f off rather than something genuinely meant

either way, whether or not he said that is besides the point anyway
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Old 11-01-2019, 11:41 AM   #9542
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 12bigworm81 View Post
The stream had literally a few dozen viewers. How many producers do you think it deserved? The fact one guy ran it isn't "telling" of anything.
It tells us who Mike's accomplice was if Justin was the only one running it.
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Old 11-01-2019, 12:06 PM   #9543
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
guys... for what it's worth, the martingale thing may have never been said, it's he said vs she said and she is recalling from several months back and has an obvious motive for bias

i'm not calling her a liar, I'm just saying just because she said it doesn't mean it actually happened

martingdale just seems way too absurd to be true - if he did say it, I almost want to believe it was meant as a sarcastic f off rather than something genuinely meant

either way, whether or not he said that is besides the point anyway
Could you point out one particular instance during this entire thing where we see anything at all that casts doubt or even a skeptical eye on Veronica Brill? I haven't seen it.
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Old 11-01-2019, 12:25 PM   #9544
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
guys... for what it's worth, the martingale thing may have never been said, it's he said vs she said and she is recalling from several months back and has an obvious motive for bias

i'm not calling her a liar, I'm just saying just because she said it doesn't mean it actually happened

martingdale just seems way too absurd to be true - if he did say it, I almost want to believe it was meant as a sarcastic f off rather than something genuinely meant

either way, whether or not he said that is besides the point anyway
yeah nah pretty sure it was a text. rick just wants us to not use the strategy for his own personal gain. nice try buddy, MTO is real.
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Old 11-01-2019, 01:23 PM   #9545
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The cat's out of the bag now.

No money livestream -- everyone's MTO.
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Old 11-01-2019, 04:00 PM   #9546
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by dietDrThunder View Post
Could you point out one particular instance during this entire thing where we see anything at all that casts doubt or even a skeptical eye on Veronica Brill? I haven't seen it.
this has nothing to do with veronica nor her credibility, eyewitness testimony is incredibly unfaithful and it's been scientifically proven that the brain manufactures false memories, especially with the passage of time

i'm just saying it's rather immaterial and we have no idea if he actually said it. maybe she misheard him or misremembered it as well. maybe if he did actually say it if he was thinking of something else and misspoke

factor in time and that english is not her native language and it's easy for the mistake to occur

but my real point was it's immaterial so there's no point focusing on this issue, especially since it may have never happened

and for the last time... I'm not sharing my Martingdale Solver with any of you
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Old 11-01-2019, 04:51 PM   #9547
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Like you said, it's not that big a deal whether JFK really said Postle used a Martingale strategy, but it does seem odd that you would question that one thing. In my mind, the fact that it's such a strange thing to say makes it more likely that her memory is accurate on this. It's so strange that it would really stick in one's mind. She is poker savvy enough to not have heard "GTO" and remember it months later as "Martingale." And some of your reasons to question her seem questionable...

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
it's he said vs she said and she is recalling from several months back and has an obvious motive for bias
Why is it "he said vs she said"? Did he ever deny saying it? Maybe I missed it, but was he ever even asked? And I suppose wanting to be believed is a possible motive for bias, but that would tend to make her just want to stick to the facts rather than fabricate something that could sound unbelievable (consciously or subconsciously).

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factor in time and that english is not her native language and it's easy for the mistake to occur
I don't know how long she lived in Poland, but it's clear that she is as fluent in English as any native speaker, in fact more articulate than most, so why would this be an issue at all?
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Old 11-01-2019, 05:44 PM   #9548
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

you're right he said/she said the wrong term here for sure and I never meant to imply she wasn't fluent in english

the more i try to explain myself the more it seems like I'm trying to push a "he couldn't have said that" when that's not at all how I feel or what I'm trying to push

just saying that eyewitness testimony notoriously inaccurate and this is something she recalled from many months prior about someone she had a comabative relationship with

i was distinctly annoyed when i read that part of the interview and the interviewer didn't ask a follow up on that because it was so incredibly ridiculous of a statement it really demanded a follow up question or two and the interviewer just kept moving along

interview was thus denied either:

A: clarification over what was said

or

B: we can learn the secrets of Martingdale as applied to 1/3 - which in itself would have been an amazing read
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Old 11-01-2019, 05:59 PM   #9549
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
yeah nah pretty sure it was a text. rick just wants us to not use the strategy for his own personal gain. nice try buddy, MTO is real.

U got that right mang!

heres an article on how to utilize it for both fun AND profit on the interwebz games...and this article is well over a year old!


http://iknowpoker.co.uk/know-how-to-...stem-in-poker/
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Old 11-01-2019, 06:02 PM   #9550
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
you're right he said/she said the wrong term here for sure and I never meant to imply she wasn't fluent in english

the more i try to explain myself the more it seems like I'm trying to push a "he couldn't have said that" when that's not at all how I feel or what I'm trying to push

just saying that eyewitness testimony notoriously inaccurate and this is something she recalled from many months prior about someone she had a comabative relationship with

i was distinctly annoyed when i read that part of the interview and the interviewer didn't ask a follow up on that because it was so incredibly ridiculous of a statement it really demanded a follow up question or two and the interviewer just kept moving along

interview was thus denied either:

A: clarification over what was said

or

B: we can learn the secrets of Martingdale as applied to 1/3 - which in itself would have been an amazing read
Rick, you are hardly covering yourself in glory casting doubt on Veronica like this.

Just a suggestion, watch her on a Stones commentary, or an interview, and then let us know if you can pick up a foreign accent, or even the sligthtes thing to suggest she is not a native English speaker.

Secondly she gave reports of her talk with JFK at the time, when her memory was still fresh.

Well, as your judgment is so far out, after your "Veronica is a liar" post, looking forward to your "Mike Postle is innocent" posts.

England are playing South African at rugby tomorrow, please can you give me your prediciton of the winner (I will then know the other team will win!)
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