Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

News, Views, and Gossip For poker news, views and gossip.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-28-2019, 11:58 PM   #9476
grjr
old hand
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,575
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post

I should also note that one other thing helped- the guy really did get lucky. He hit a LOT of gutshots and weird draw-outs. Like the time he called the flop against top pair with pocket 7's and 2 outed a set on the turn. Or the time he hit a gutshot on the river with 75 off to make a better straight than Frank had. That meme of "get there Postle" wasn't incorrect.

And the rungood conditions viewers who aren't watching carefully to look past the God mode. He's winning all this money, but we also see him sucking out and hitting lots of hands.
You know why he hits a lot of gutshots and weird draw outs? It's because he's still in the hand.

Think about it. If you know the guy betting either doesn't have a pair or has a weak pair then you can call the flop and turn with your 86o with backdoor draws because you know if you hit an 8 or a 6 that it's also going to be good. Even if you hit nothing if you know that no one else has anything then you can still take the pot.

Being able to see 5 cards is a big advantage. When you add in taking all the pots where no one hits anything then it's very hard to lose.
grjr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 01:05 AM   #9477
Crane
old hand
 
Crane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,375
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Unless somebody rats (or confesses), I don't think there is a 1% chance this goes to trial.

Baring a settlement of some kind or an internal investigation that might shed some light, I don't see much of anything happening to Postle...other than the fact his life is pretty much ruined.
Crane is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 01:16 AM   #9478
deuceblocker
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,263
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The civil case will likely be settled. Unless a lot more comes out, there probably won't be a criminal case. There aren't many prosecutions for cheating at poker. People here want a prosecution. However, the casino probably doesn't want one, and the public as a whole doesn't care.
deuceblocker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 10:29 AM   #9479
TimM
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TimM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 9,540
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Just started reading about this in the last couple of days, and watching videos. Hard to believe this went on so long in hindsight, but this kind of thing happens all the time. The fact that Postle could not explain the reasoning behind his plays, along with the technical difficulties, reminds me of this case from chess:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheati...ess#Historical

Quote:
One of the earliest known cases of using technology to cheat occurred in the 1993 World Open. An unrated newcomer wearing headphones used the name "John von Neumann" (matching the name of a famous computer science pioneer), and scored 4˝/9 in the Open Section, including a draw with a grandmaster and a win over a 2350-rated player. This player seemed to have a suspicious bulge in one of his pockets, which appeared to make a soft humming or buzzing sound at important points in the game. When he was quizzed by the tournament director, he was unable to demonstrate even a rudimentary knowledge of some simple chess concepts, and he was disqualified.
https://en.chessbase.com/post/a-hist...ating-in-che-2

Note that in the Shapiro game, when the player stopped moving and let his time run out, this took roughly 90 minutes.

Quote:
At the World Open 1993 in Philadelphia a completely unknown player appeared, unsubtly calling himself John von Neumann (he was black and had dreadlocks). He played excellently, drawing against GM Helgi Olafsson in the second round. But in round four he suddenly stopped at move nine and lost on time. [...]

This is how the game from round nine went:

[After 8 moves] von Neumann thought for forty minutes, although there is only one reasonable move (pawn takes bishop). Then he disappeared for a while, came back, played 9.bxc3 and won the game. Obviously there was some communication problem that had to be solved.

Von Neumann won a prize in the category of players without an Elo rating. Naturally people had become suspicious of this unknown and highly unorthodox player. Before the organisers handed over the $800 check they asked him to solve a simple chess puzzle. He refused, turned and left, and has never been seen again at chess tournaments.
Today, now that chess playing programs running on a cell phone are much stronger than almost all humans, there are rules prohibiting cell phone use in all serious chess tournaments:

http://www.chesstour.com/devices.htm
TimM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 10:36 AM   #9480
Andrew Beal
grinder
 
Andrew Beal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 435
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)



mikey didn't make it
Andrew Beal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 01:57 PM   #9481
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,305
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by grjr View Post
You know why he hits a lot of gutshots and weird draw outs? It's because he's still in the hand.

Think about it. If you know the guy betting either doesn't have a pair or has a weak pair then you can call the flop and turn with your 86o with backdoor draws because you know if you hit an 8 or a 6 that it's also going to be good. Even if you hit nothing if you know that no one else has anything then you can still take the pot.

Being able to see 5 cards is a big advantage. When you add in taking all the pots where no one hits anything then it's very hard to lose.
Sure. I know all that. But I suspect he also ran good and hit a greater percentage of his 2 outers, gutshots, and backdoor draws than expectation during these sessions.
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 01:59 PM   #9482
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,305
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimM View Post
Just started reading about this in the last couple of days, and watching videos. Hard to believe this went on so long in hindsight, but this kind of thing happens all the time. The fact that Postle could not explain the reasoning behind his plays
Or how about Rosie Ruiz, who "won" the Boston Marathon without having been seen at any of the mid-race checkpoints. When interviewed post-race, she didn't know what an "interval" was.
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 02:22 PM   #9483
grjr
old hand
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,575
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Sure. I know all that. But I suspect he also ran good and hit a greater percentage of his 2 outers, gutshots, and backdoor draws than expectation during these sessions.
I think there's a good chance that it seems like he's running abnormally hot because we're cherry-picking all these hands that he won and not seeing all the others where the draws didn't come in.

He played a lot of hands in those 14 months and the only way to know for sure would be to document every hand. Would be a lot of work just to see if he's lucky or not.
grjr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 03:05 PM   #9484
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 11,012
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimM View Post
Just started reading about this in the last couple of days, and watching videos. Hard to believe this went on so long in hindsight, but this kind of thing happens all the time. The fact that Postle could not explain the reasoning behind his plays, along with the technical difficulties, reminds me of this case from chess:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheati...ess#Historical



https://en.chessbase.com/post/a-hist...ating-in-che-2

Note that in the Shapiro game, when the player stopped moving and let his time run out, this took roughly 90 minutes.



Today, now that chess playing programs running on a cell phone are much stronger than almost all humans, there are rules prohibiting cell phone use in all serious chess tournaments:

http://www.chesstour.com/devices.htm
someone won the canadian championship by literally hiding the opponent's queen in his hand so when he got his pawn across he couldn't find it, was freaked out about losing on time and played an upside down rook to signify it was a queen

player then quickly placed the queen back on the table - judge ruled that queen was on table so he played a rook and not a queen and the guy then lost the game to the cheater - this was all caught on film but still took place

https://www.chess.com/news/view/cont...mpionship-5047

and then there was this guy who took long bathroom breaks to study up and memorize solutions on his phone who got caught because they suspected him and launched a sting - this guy was a grandmaster no less https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...om-with-phone/
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 04:27 PM   #9485
AmazingErvin
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AmazingErvin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: twitch.tv/amazingervin
Posts: 6,133
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
RE: so clearly obvious super using went on for years

Unless you have the thought planted that someone could be cheating, people would just view it as incredibly good play, much like people viewed it

At least dozens of people had viewed a very good amount of all the sessions and it took two years of it before one of them was sure enough something wasn't right to point it out to others

The fact is that people see what they are looking for, from people commenting here that the show was made up, comments that the commentators are sending secret messages, that they are openly engaging in human trafficking...

If you're looking for something, you'll find it whether it not it's there. That's basic human nature. 100% Postle was cheating, but it's not weird at all that it took so long for they're to be enough random observations to plant the thought he could have hole card data.

RE: TT vs (JJ)4 hand - I've been thinking about this a lot. It definitely is problematic. If there was a card reading error, how would Mike know he was beat? Also, did he later show jacks? I could have sworn he mucked and at the time of the broadcast he couldn't have known they had his hole card data wrong
I had this theory about 3000 posts ago that probably got lost amidst all the posts. Nothing has happened since to change my thoughts on this so I still believe this same thing to be the most likely as a few weeks ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazingErvin View Post
I hadn't seen this mentioned before so wanted to present this possibility on the J4/JJ hand



At 1:28:56 Seat 7 Stephen(in what's normally the 8 seat) quickly folds his cards and we are unable to see what they were(Seat 5 and 6 can be seen at .25 speed to fold garbage) - Seat 8 Joe(in what's normally the 9 seat) has "J4" but it is possible that the reader picked up the 4s that was intended for Stephen when the dealer turned to pitch/they did one of those 'which card is mine' thingies (I looked earlier during the deal and at that point the chip stack graphic is up so you can't see). So just wanted to mention it is possible that the missing jack is in Stephen's hand since we never saw what it was. This would also account for the cheaters knowing the cards in real time/being able to deduce what must have happened since J4 wouldn't be continuing in the hand and they may have ran into that error before with seats next to each other. If I was cheating like him I would go all the way and definitely have the ability to see discards if I needed to throughout hands. Perhaps Mike just tries to keep the looking to a minimum and does it postflop while the accomplice can keep in touch with relevant preflop info/discards and text as needed.

Last edited by AmazingErvin; 10-29-2019 at 04:33 PM.
AmazingErvin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 05:44 PM   #9486
Suit
Pooh-Bah
 
Suit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 4,751
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by inmyrav View Post
Why would they want to prosecute Postle more than the people who started the entire operation? Seems like going after the street dealers instead of the distributors. Everyone wants Postle's head but if he was just one of many there's a lot of others who are more culpable, including (civilly) perhaps the casino if it was negligently (or w/e the standard is) allowing cheating.
Because without getting one of them to talk, they probably will never be able to convict any of them. I am betting they will get nowhere without a confession. I hope I am wrong and they are able to find some solid evidence, but I just don't think it is going to happen. Too much time to destroy it. Go after the tech guys that are too afraid to lose everything and offer them a away out.
Suit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 06:30 PM   #9487
piranha
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,239
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suit View Post
Because without getting one of them to talk, they probably will never be able to convict any of them. I am betting they will get nowhere without a confession. I hope I am wrong and they are able to find some solid evidence, but I just don't think it is going to happen. Too much time to destroy it. Go after the tech guys that are too afraid to lose everything and offer them a away out.
I think it's a leap to say anyone else was involved besides Mike and Justin.

I do think there's a distinct possibility that others became aware of the situation, or at least had strong suspicions, and turned a blind eye to it. Veronica has alluded to this in multiple Podcasts and I take her perspective with a lot of weight given her ethics and closeness to the situation.
piranha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 06:54 PM   #9488
Suit
Pooh-Bah
 
Suit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 4,751
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by piranha View Post
I think it's a leap to say anyone else was involved besides Mike and Justin.
Sure, so long as Justin or Mike is capable of figuring out how to get the live stream on Mike's phone I can go with this, but I think there is one other person involved. I'm not even 100% convinced Justin is involved, but it seems at least somewhat likely.
Suit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 07:17 PM   #9489
piranha
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,239
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suit View Post
Sure, so long as Justin or Mike is capable of figuring out how to get the live stream on Mike's phone I can go with this, but I think there is one other person involved. I'm not even 100% convinced Justin is involved, but it seems at least somewhat likely.
It could be as simple as Justin texting Mike, at least initially, because he had real time access to hole cards.

I do think the cheating progressed and got more "sophisticated" but whether more people were involved, I don't know but at the same time think it's unlikely, though possible. Justin speaking into a microphone to Mike's wireless headset concealed by his hat is a likely progression, particularly after phones were banned from the table.
piranha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 07:35 PM   #9490
SimpleRick
veteran
 
SimpleRick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 3,480
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by piranha View Post
I think it's a leap to say anyone else was involved besides Mike and Justin.

I do think there's a distinct possibility that others became aware of the situation, or at least had strong suspicions, and turned a blind eye to it. Veronica has alluded to this in multiple Podcasts and I take her perspective with a lot of weight given her ethics and closeness to the situation.
I honestly think it was just Mike with no outside help. All it would take is him learning the stream id or whatever when he was helping to set up the Dream Seat game that he was trying to get going and Justin being dumb enough to let him have access. Hanlon's razor and occam's razor. Don't attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity and the simplest explanation is the most likely. Justin should still be fired and never work in poker again due to his gross incompetence.
SimpleRick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 07:46 PM   #9491
Abbaddabba
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,770
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PuckFokerGo View Post
In my opinion, he seems to be one of the sharpest VIP's in the SHR scene, but certainly not a world class level player. This makes sense since he's been playing with some of the toughest players in the world for 10 years. Over the years I've heard that he enjoys competing against the best in the world and uses what he learns against them to play against Super VIP's that the like of Dwan etc don't have access to.

I don't see any reason to suspect him of foul play, but am still interested to hear what those with a better understanding of poker think of his skill level.
If you take any scammer at their word it all sounds plausible. Not saying he is.

But the idea, as others have put, that he played against the worlds best in these nosebleed cash games in macau in order to learn the game? it's not impossible if he was a legit business man with 100m+ net worth, but what do we really know about him?


Quote:
Phua made the news when reports emerged on Tuesday that he was nabbed by the FBI together with three other Malaysians, including his son Darren, 22.
Also arrested were four others from Hong Kong and China.
Not much is known about Phua, who is reportedly worth at least US$400mil (RM1.27bil).
Site Poker Listings described his fortune as “a bottomless pile”.
He is also said to be a high-ranking member of a triad involved in gambling, prostitution and drug trafficking.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nati...K3qfiWrqVaP.99

does this sound like a guy whose too righteous to try something shady? if he was in a position to pull a postle, do you think that he's likely to be one of the good guys willing to insist on taking the moral high road? I know these are all just allegations, but it makes a lot more sense that someone made a great fortune through doing underhanded things than by being a damn good VIP host, and if that is the path he took to get where he is, his story seems a whole lot less plausible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTboGG7DMwU

Nothing to worry! I just want learn from you! Because you sooooo smart.


Last edited by Abbaddabba; 10-29-2019 at 07:57 PM.
Abbaddabba is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 08:12 PM   #9492
Suit
Pooh-Bah
 
Suit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 4,751
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Was there ever god mode while the phones were banned?
Suit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 08:34 PM   #9493
onemoretimes
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 3,375
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by grjr View Post
I think there's a good chance that it seems like he's running abnormally hot because we're cherry-picking all these hands that he won and not seeing all the others where the draws didn't come in.

He played a lot of hands in those 14 months and the only way to know for sure would be to document every hand. Would be a lot of work just to see if he's lucky or not.
This has pretty much been done. Rebluffing people on the river in massive pots is not running hot. Over betting super thinly every time you have a chop, is not running hot.
onemoretimes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 02:19 AM   #9494
housenuts
1st Quartiled the 500
 
housenuts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Laser eyes or HFSP
Posts: 44,063
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suit View Post
Was there ever god mode while the phones were banned?
The better question to ask is when the phones were banned was that ban actually enforced.
housenuts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 02:28 AM   #9495
zica
adept
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 944
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I guess if the investigators can prove that someone has spent more money than he has declared they may be able to get him to sing. I'm sure this is a standard line of investigation for crimes of this sort.
zica is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 03:18 AM   #9496
inmyrav
old hand
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 1,649
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SimpleRick View Post
I honestly think it was just Mike with no outside help. All it would take is him learning the stream id or whatever when he was helping to set up the Dream Seat game that he was trying to get going and Justin being dumb enough to let him have access. Hanlon's razor and occam's razor. Don't attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity and the simplest explanation is the most likely. Justin should still be fired and never work in poker again due to his gross incompetence.
I don't think it's that easy. I think he had help, if it was even his idea. If the software is so easy to hack, and the casino was so negligent, there will be some money coming to all involved.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suit View Post
Because without getting one of them to talk, they probably will never be able to convict any of them. I am betting they will get nowhere without a confession. I hope I am wrong and they are able to find some solid evidence, but I just don't think it is going to happen. Too much time to destroy it. Go after the tech guys that are too afraid to lose everything and offer them a away out.
My point is that the tech guys are the ones you want to prosecute. Give Postle the deal. This can't happen without the tech guys ... Postle could be any idiot.

Last edited by inmyrav; 10-30-2019 at 03:42 AM.
inmyrav is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 03:26 AM   #9497
n00ki5
journeyman
 
n00ki5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 329
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SimpleRick View Post
I honestly think it was just Mike with no outside help. All it would take is him learning the stream id or whatever when he was helping to set up the Dream Seat game that he was trying to get going and Justin being dumb enough to let him have access. Hanlon's razor and occam's razor. Don't attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity and the simplest explanation is the most likely. Justin should still be fired and never work in poker again due to his gross incompetence.
I see where you're coming from, but the most plausible/elegant/simple/likely explanation here is that Justin is just a scumbag and not that he was an utter moron running a live casino poker game streamed worldwide unable to realize the obvious in front of his eyes
n00ki5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 08:16 AM   #9498
TimM
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TimM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 9,540
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by inmyrav View Post
My point is that the tech guys are the ones you want to prosecute. Give Postle the deal. This can't happen without the tech guys ... Postle could be any idiot.
You don't think the guy who laughed in people's faces as he stole their money should be prosecuted?
TimM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 08:35 AM   #9499
namisgr11
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,342
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimM View Post
You don't think the guy who laughed in people's faces as he stole their money should be prosecuted?
I'd bet 'the deal' would include Postle having to pay back winnings from the live streams in which he cheated, and possibly in addition some amount related to damages, legal fees, etc.
namisgr11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 08:48 AM   #9500
deuceblocker
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,263
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
someone won the canadian championship by literally hiding the opponent's queen in his hand so when he got his pawn across he couldn't find it, was freaked out about losing on time and played an upside down rook to signify it was a queen

player then quickly placed the queen back on the table - judge ruled that queen was on table so he played a rook and not a queen and the guy then lost the game to the cheater - this was all caught on film but still took place

https://www.chess.com/news/view/cont...mpionship-5047
They were playing fast games as tie-breakers. The guy queening had 6 seconds to make his move. He put an upside down rook on because he couldn't find a queen. Normally, if you already have a queen on the board, you use an upside down rook as an extra queen.

His opponent had the queen in his hand, but put it back down after the guy queened. The opponent then said that the upside down queen should play as a rook. The referee agreed it should play as a rook, because there was a queen available.

The cheater won the Canadian championship and an entry into the world championship because his opponent had to play with the rook. The whole thing came out from the video showing the queen in the guy's hand. However, it was ruled that the cheater won.

I wonder what it was like the next time those two guys played.
deuceblocker is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:49 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive